Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
The Bank of Canada will announce its next interest rate decision on June 10, 2026. After holding steady at 2.25% in April (decision date 2026-04-29), markets and economists widely expect no change next month—but the path beyond June remains uncertain.
Here’s what Canadian savers, mortgage holders, and investors need to know heading into the decision.
What Happened in April
At its most recent meeting on April 29, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% (decision date 2026-04-29). Its accompanying April forecast pointed to inflation staying above the 2% target for much of the year, and cited ongoing trade uncertainty as a reason for caution.
In its April forecast, the Bank revised its inflation outlook upward: it now expects inflation to average 2.3% in 2026 (up from a prior 2.0% estimate), peaking around 3% in April before easing to roughly 2.5% in June and returning to 2% by early 2027 (forecast released 2026-04-29).
GDP growth projections were also updated: the Bank expects 1.2% growth in 2026, 1.6% in 2027, and 1.7% in 2028 (forecast as of 2026-04-29).
What Markets Are Pricing for June 10
Bond markets currently price a very high probability of no change on June 10—roughly a 1% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. A majority of economists polled by Reuters also expect the Bank to stand pat for the rest of 2026.
That said, money markets do price in a possible 25-basis-point hike later in the year, around October. Analyst views diverge on whether that will materialize, and much depends on how inflation evolves through the summer.
Why Tuesday’s CPI Matters
Before the June 10 decision, we’ll get one more critical inflation reading: Statistics Canada will release April’s Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Economists estimate it may top 3% for the first time since 2023, driven in part by higher energy prices.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, it will reinforce the Bank’s cautious stance and reduce any lingering market hopes for a near-term cut. If it surprises to the downside, it could shift expectations—though even then, a June cut remains highly unlikely.
The CUSMA Factor
One wildcard: the CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) joint review deadline falls in June 2026. Trade uncertainty has been a recurring theme in the Bank’s commentary, and any developments on that front could influence the tone of the June statement.
For now, the Bank appears committed to keeping rates steady until it sees clear, sustained progress on inflation.
What It Means for Canadians
For savers, elevated rates continue to make high-interest savings accounts and GICs attractive. If you’re sitting on cash, locking in a competitive rate now may make sense—especially if the Bank holds for the remainder of 2026.
For mortgage holders, variable-rate holders can breathe easier knowing another hike is unlikely in June. Fixed-rate shoppers should watch bond yields closely; any further bond-market volatility could push fixed mortgage rates higher even if the Bank doesn’t move.
For investors, the message is straightforward: position for a higher-for-longer rate environment. That means favoring quality companies with strong balance sheets and stable cash flows, and being selective about sectors sensitive to borrowing costs.
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Bottom Line
The Bank of Canada is almost certain to hold rates at 2.25% on June 10. The bigger question is what happens later in 2026—and that depends on inflation, growth, and trade developments. Tuesday’s CPI will be the next key test. We think the best approach is to plan for rates to stay elevated through year-end, and position your savings and portfolio accordingly.
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Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.
