Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
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The S&P/TSX Composite closed at a record high of 35,274.84 on Friday, July 3, 2026, rising 308.17 points or 0.9%, led by the basic materials sector. Canadian gold stocks drove the rally, with Agnico Eagle climbing 2.7%, Wheaton Precious Metals gaining 2.6%, and Barrick advancing 2.4%. The August gold contract rose US$61.60 to US$4,187.30 per ounce, making Friday’s session a powerful reminder of how much influence Canadian gold miners still have on the TSX.
If you’ve been watching the markets this week, you already know what drove the broader trend. But Friday’s record close had a specific catalyst: weak U.S. jobs data that boosted expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve, lifted gold, and pushed materials stocks higher across the TSX.
Here’s why it happened, what it means for Canadian investors, and what could reverse the trend.
The Catalyst: Weak U.S. Jobs Data Lifts Gold
U.S. employers added just 57,000 jobs in June — roughly half the expected amount, according to data released Friday morning. That miss was enough to shift market expectations toward a more dovish Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates typically weaken the U.S. dollar, and a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to international buyers. The chain reaction was swift: gold rallied, Canadian gold miners followed, and the TSX materials sector led the index to a new all-time closing high.
We covered the broader implications of the U.S. jobs miss on Friday, but Friday’s session showed just how quickly macro data can translate into sector leadership on the TSX.
Why Gold Matters to the TSX
Materials is one of the TSX’s heavyweight sectors, and Canadian gold miners make up a significant portion of that weight. Agnico Eagle, Barrick, and Wheaton Precious Metals are all widely held names among Canadian dividend and growth investors. Because materials carries so much weight on the index, a strong day for gold miners can move the entire TSX — especially when it coincides with energy strength, which also showed up Friday as August crude oil rose 9 cents to US$68.78 per barrel.
For Canadian investors, this matters. Gold miners benefit directly from higher gold prices, and gold tends to attract buyers when rate expectations fall and the U.S. dollar weakens — the exact setup Friday’s jobs miss created. But it’s worth remembering that gold-driven records can reverse just as quickly as they arrive. A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report next month or a hawkish surprise from the Fed could pull gold back down and take the TSX with it.
We explained how the TSX record close played out across multiple sectors in our weekly wrap-up, but Friday’s session was uniquely driven by materials.
Agnico Eagle: A Closer Look
Agnico Eagle is one of the largest Canadian gold stocks by market capitalization and a core holding for many dividend-focused investors. Here’s where the stock stands as of July 3, 2026:
- Last Price: CAD $223.06 (+2.27%)
- 52 Week Range: $157.68 – $348.94
- Market Cap: CAD $111.54B
- PE Ratio (TTM): 14.80
- EPS (TTM): $15.07
- Earnings Date: July 29, 2026
- Forward Dividend & Yield: $2.47 (1.13%)
- Ex-Dividend Date: September 1, 2026
- 1-Year Return: +36.73%
Data as of July 3, 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.
The stock is still well below its 52-week high of $348.94, which means Friday’s rally brought it back toward the middle of its trading range. The bigger catalyst on the calendar is Agnico’s July 29 earnings date. If the company delivers strong production numbers and cost discipline, the stock could extend its gains. If margins compress or guidance disappoints, the rally may stall.
If you’re building a dividend portfolio with exposure to gold, Agnico remains one of the most liquid and widely held options on the TSX. The 1.13% yield isn’t high by dividend investor standards, but the combination of growth potential and stable income makes it a balanced pick for TFSA and RRSP accounts.
What Canadian Investors Should Watch
Friday’s record close was driven by a single macro catalyst: weak U.S. jobs data that boosted expectations of a more dovish Fed. But the flip side is equally important. If the next U.S. jobs report comes in strong, or if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance than markets expect, gold could reverse quickly. A hot U.S. data print would strengthen the dollar, reduce demand for gold, and likely pull the TSX materials sector back down.
Near-term catalysts to watch:
- Agnico Eagle earnings on July 29 — production, margins, and guidance will set the tone for the stock’s next move
- Canada’s June Labour Force Survey on Friday, July 10 — we previewed the data in our week-ahead piece, and a strong or weak print could influence Bank of Canada expectations
- Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey results today (Monday, July 6) — if business confidence shifts materially, it could influence how investors view Canadian equities broadly
- Next U.S. jobs report in early August — another weak print would likely extend the gold rally; a strong print could reverse it
Gold stocks can be excellent TFSA and RRSP holdings during periods of Fed dovishness and currency weakness, but they’re also volatile. If you’re adding exposure to Canadian gold stocks, balance it with other sectors and be prepared to adjust if macro conditions shift.
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Final Thoughts
Friday’s record TSX close was a reminder that Canadian gold stocks still carry significant weight on the index. But records driven by a single sector and a single catalyst can reverse quickly. Keep an eye on U.S. jobs data, Fed commentary, and Agnico’s July 29 earnings for signals about whether this rally has room to run or if a pullback is coming.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.
