Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
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All data as of July 3, 2026.
The S&P/TSX Composite closed at a record high of 35,275 on Friday, July 3, 2026, up 0.88% on the day. The rally was driven by a soft U.S. June jobs report that reinforced expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Markets are closed this weekend. Trading resumes Monday morning, with a week full of economic data and earnings ahead.
Here’s what Canadian investors need to watch from July 6 to July 10.
Monday, July 6: Bank of Canada Surveys
The week kicks off with two major data releases at 11:30 a.m. ET: the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations for the second quarter. These are the last major BoC-commissioned reads before the July 15 policy decision, where markets are pricing in a 96% probability of a hold at 2.25%.
The surveys measure business confidence, hiring intentions, capacity pressures, and consumer inflation expectations. If both surveys signal cooling sentiment, it could reinforce the case for rate cuts later in 2026. If they show resilience, the Bank may push back against market expectations of an imminent easing cycle.
Earlier on Monday, at 9:30 a.m. ET, Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for June will be released. It’s a secondary indicator compared to the BoC surveys, but still worth watching for directional insight into the services economy.
Tuesday, July 7: Trade Balance and Ivey PMI
At 8:30 a.m. ET, Statistics Canada releases the merchandise trade balance for May. At 10 a.m. ET, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for June will show whether business activity is expanding or contracting. The Ivey PMI is one of the more volatile monthly indicators, but a sharp move in either direction can influence market sentiment, particularly in a week packed with data.
Also on Tuesday, the NATO Summit kicks off in Ankara and runs through Wednesday. While geopolitical developments aren’t always market-moving, any major announcements could shift risk appetite in global markets.
Wednesday, July 8: Fed Minutes
At 2 p.m. ET, the U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June 16–17 policy meeting. Markets will parse the minutes for clues about the Fed’s reaction function — particularly how officials were reading the labour market before June’s soft jobs report landed.
Dovish language could extend the rally in gold and rate-sensitive equities. Hawkish pushback could trigger a correction, especially in sectors that have led the recent TSX advance.
Thursday, July 9: Earnings on Both Sides of the Border
Thursday is earnings day. On the TSX, Aritzia Inc. reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 results. The Vancouver-based fashion retailer guided to revenue growth of roughly 36% to 39% versus the prior year, with margin expansion expected. Analysts have raised full-year estimates. The stock has surged more than 110% over the past year, so expectations are elevated. Execution matters.
Also reporting Thursday: Richelieu Hardware on the TSX, and PepsiCo and Progressive in the U.S. At 8:30 a.m. ET, U.S. initial jobless claims will provide another read on the labour market after last week’s soft payrolls report.
Friday, July 10: Canada Employment Report
The week closes with the big one: Canada’s June employment report (Labour Force Survey) at 8:30 a.m. ET. Street consensus, per The Globe and Mail, is for roughly 10,000 jobs added — essentially flat — with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.6% and average hourly wages up 3.3% year over year.
We covered the June jobs report in detail in our full preview. The baseline: May added 88,000 jobs, unemployment fell to 6.6%, and wage growth came in at 3.0% year over year. If June shows deterioration, particularly in full-time employment or wage growth, it could shift the narrative around the Bank of Canada’s next move.
Also on Friday, Statistics Canada releases building permits for May. The U.S. Federal Reserve releases its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, though markets will have already digested the June minutes by then.
What It Means for Canadian Investors
This is a data-heavy week with the potential to shift expectations around central bank policy on both sides of the border. The BoC surveys Monday and the Canada jobs report Friday are the two most important events for Canadian equities. The Fed minutes Wednesday matter because dovish U.S. monetary policy has been a tailwind for gold, materials, and other TSX-weighted sectors.
After a 30.5% year-over-year gain in the TSX and a fresh record close Friday, the risk-reward setup is less compelling than it was six months ago. Don’t chase momentum. If you’re building positions in Canadian stocks or dividend payers, wait for pullbacks and prioritize quality over hype.
For active investors looking to position ahead of this week’s data, choosing the right platform matters. Open a Questrade account today and get $50 in free trades. Questrade offers the lowest commissions for Canadian investors and ETFs are always free to buy. Visit Questrade here.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.
