Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
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The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 34,936 on Wednesday, down 0.95% (−336.79 points) from Tuesday’s close of 35,273 — putting the index below the 35,000 level less than a week after its record close of 35,275 on Friday, July 3. Two drivers weighed on Canadian markets: Federal Reserve minutes pointing to possible rate hikes if inflation stays high, and renewed US-Iran tensions after reported US strikes on Iranian sites.
Data as of July 8, 2026 close. Source: TradingEconomics.
Fed Minutes Flag Rate Hike Risk
The Federal Reserve released minutes from its June meeting on Wednesday, revealing that policymakers “saw a case for rate hikes if inflation remains high,” according to TradingEconomics. Per CME FedWatch data cited in market reports, the odds of a US rate hike later this year now sit at roughly 87%.
On the Canadian side, markets currently expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates at its July 15 meeting, according to TradingEconomics. That decision lands one week from today.
US-Iran Escalation Adds Energy Supply Concerns
President Trump declared the memorandum of understanding with Iran was “over,” renewing concerns about global energy supply disruption. According to reports, the US announced new strikes on about 90 Iranian sites — targeting air defense and missile positions — following clashes around the Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate crude traded near US$74 per barrel on Wednesday. The Canadian dollar remains near one-year lows. These dynamics follow Tuesday’s oil surge on Iran strike news, which initially lifted Canadian energy stocks.
Financials and Gold Miners Hit Hardest
Canadian bank stocks declined across the board on Wednesday. Toronto Dominion fell 2.61%, Bank of Montreal dropped 2.44%, Royal Bank declined 1.77%, and CIBC lost 1.88%.
Gold miners retreated as gold slipped for a third consecutive session to around US$4,080 per ounce. Agnico Eagle fell 3.7%, Barrick declined 3.4%, and Wheaton Precious Metals dropped 4%. Ivanhoe Mines bucked the trend with a 1.1% gain. The pullback comes just days after gold stocks lifted the TSX to its record close.
Tech and consumer discretionary stocks also declined. Shopify fell 2.60% and Air Canada lost 2.1%.
The Canada TSX 60 Index closed at 2,059.78, down 0.93%. US markets were mixed: the Dow fell 1.09% and the S&P 500 declined 0.28%, while tech-heavy US indexes edged higher on a push from semiconductor names.
What This Means for Canadian Investors
Wednesday’s session capped a week of sharp rotation: oil and energy names moved higher on Tuesday’s Middle East escalation, while banks, gold miners, and technology names sold off as rate-hike odds rose. Whether that pattern holds now depends on two dates — the Fed’s inflation read in the months ahead, and the Bank of Canada’s July 15 decision at home.
The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey earlier this week showed more Canadian businesses planning for a possible recession. Between possible Fed tightening later this year and that domestic caution, Canadian investors have two threads to watch at once.
Aritzia Inc. (ATZ) reports first quarter Fiscal 2027 results after market close today, with a conference call scheduled for Thursday at 4:30pm ET.
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Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.
