Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
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The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed the week at 35,263.85 on Friday, July 17, down 76.30 points (−0.22%), data as of July 17, 2026 market close. That pullback came after the index set a record close of 35,416.20 on Wednesday, July 15, then slipped in the final two sessions of the week (Thursday −0.2% to 35,340.15; Friday −0.22%).
Despite the late-week softness, the TSX week ahead starts with the index holding a year-to-date gain of +29.11% as of July 17 close.
What Drove Friday’s Move
Friday’s pressure came from a selloff in US semiconductor stocks weighing on technology shares. Energy stocks gained on higher oil prices amid Middle East tensions.
Oil traded near one-month highs in mid-July on Middle East tensions; Brent reached approximately US$84.37 and WTI approximately US$79.42 as of July 16. That strength lifted Canadian energy stocks late in the week.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, July 15. In our view, its next moves will likely be informed by inflation data such as Monday’s report.
TSX Week Ahead: June CPI Lands Monday
Statistics Canada releases the June Consumer Price Index on Monday, July 20.
The May 2026 CPI rose 3.2% year over year, up from 2.8% in April (Statistics Canada). Gasoline prices rose 33.2% year over year in May (April: +28.6%). Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.3% year over year in May.
If June’s CPI accelerates again, markets will likely reassess the Bank of Canada’s path. If inflation moderates, that could support rate-sensitive sectors like utilities, REITs, and dividend stocks.
The labour market remains relatively strong — Canada added 18,000 jobs in June (Statistics Canada, covered in our July 11 report) — which adds context to the inflation picture.
What It Means for Canadian Investors
Our view: Monday’s CPI report is the key event for the TSX week ahead. The index just hit a record high, then pulled back. Whether that pullback extends or reverses will depend largely on inflation data.
If inflation stays elevated, investors could rotate out of rate-sensitive sectors and toward energy or materials. If inflation cools, dividend stocks and REITs would likely benefit.
Energy’s recent strength is tied to geopolitical risk, which can reverse quickly. Technology’s weakness appears to reflect broader US equity moves rather than anything Canada-specific.
The TSX year-to-date performance has been strong, but in our view the next leg higher depends on clarity around the Bank of Canada’s next move. Monday’s report should offer investors more of that clarity.
What Investors Should Do
Watch Monday’s CPI release closely. If you hold a diversified portfolio of best Canadian stocks, you’re likely positioned for either outcome. Rate-sensitive dividend stocks benefit if inflation cools. Energy and materials hold up if inflation runs hot.
For investors building long-term positions, volatility around data releases creates opportunities. If Monday’s report triggers a pullback in high-quality names, that could be a buying window.
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Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.
