Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
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The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,305.31, back near record territory after a brief dip below 35,000 midweek. The 104-point gain capped a volatile week that saw the index slip and recover in a matter of days. Data as of July 12, 2026.
Now the focus shifts to Wednesday’s Bank of Canada decision and a fresh set of economic projections that could shape the second half of the year.
Wednesday: BoC Decision + Quarterly Report
The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision Wednesday, July 15 at 9:45am ET. Economists widely expect the central bank to hold the overnight rate at 2.25%, which would mark the sixth consecutive pause following 50 basis points of cuts across September and October 2025.
This decision includes the quarterly Monetary Policy Report — and in our view, the updated economic projections matter more than the rate itself at this stage. The BoC’s view on growth, inflation, and the labour market should set the tone for whether markets price in further easing later this year. Two more decisions remain in 2026: September 2 and October 28 (with another MPR), followed by December 9.
Last week’s Business Outlook Survey showed businesses remain cautious. Wednesday’s MPR will show whether the central bank shares that caution or sees enough momentum to justify staying on hold through year-end.
Tuesday: US Bank Earnings Season Begins
Before the BoC decision, US second-quarter earnings season kicks off Tuesday, July 14. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo all report that day — a concentrated read on the health of the financial sector.
Canadian banks report on a different calendar, with fiscal third-quarter results typically landing in late August. That makes Tuesday’s US bank results the early indicator for the sector backdrop. We’re watching net interest margins, credit quality, and any commentary on commercial real estate exposure.
Keep an eye on Canadian bank stocks as well — Tuesday’s US reports could set the direction for the sector heading into domestic earnings season next month.
Canadian Data Wednesday
Also landing Wednesday: Statistics Canada’s May manufacturing and wholesale trade reports. The advance GDP estimate points to May real GDP growth of +0.1% after a stronger +0.5% in April, with second-quarter growth tracking around 2% annualized.
That modest May figure follows June’s jobs report, which showed 18,000 new positions but highlighted wage growth as the key detail. If the BoC sees 2% Q2 growth paired with persistent wage pressure, that supports the case for staying on hold.
What We’re Watching
Here’s the checklist for the week:
- Wednesday 9:45am ET: BoC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report — focus on the growth and inflation projections, not just the rate
- Tuesday: Five major US banks report Q2 earnings — early read on financial sector health before Canadian banks report in August
- Wednesday: Canadian manufacturing, wholesale trade, and May GDP data — confirmation of the 2% Q2 tracking estimate
- All week: Any market reaction to the combination of central bank guidance and corporate earnings
The TSX slipped and recovered last week. This week delivers the data that determines whether that recovery holds.
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Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.
