Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
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US June CPI releases at 8:30am ET today, with economists expecting a -0.1% month-over-month headline decline that would push the annual rate from 4.2% down to approximately 3.9%. Five major US banks—JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo—report Q2 earnings before the bell. Canadian investors are watching both events closely for TSX direction ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision.
CPI Expectations and Canadian Implications
Consensus calls for headline CPI to fall, driven by a roughly 10% June drop in US pump prices—the fourth-largest monthly decline in a decade—after the US-Iran ceasefire reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Core CPI is expected to hold at approximately 2.9% year-over-year. May’s annual CPI of 4.2% marked the highest reading since April 2023 and the third consecutive monthly acceleration, with energy costs up 23.5% year-over-year on the Iran-conflict energy shock.
However, according to reports, the ceasefire ended July 8. Weekend US airstrikes and Iran’s disputed Strait of Hormuz closure claim have reportedly pushed oil back up, meaning June’s gasoline-driven relief may not repeat in July. The Canadian dollar and TSX energy stocks remain sensitive to oil price movements, while a lower-than-expected CPI print could support Fed pause hopes and lift risk assets including the TSX.
US Bank Earnings and Canadian Bank Read-Through
JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup report Q2 results today with strong year-over-year consensus expectations: analysts project EPS growth of approximately +11.3% for JPMorgan, +27% for Bank of America, and +38.8% for Citigroup. Consensus calls for Bank of America to deliver approximately $1.12 EPS on roughly $30.7 billion revenue, while JPMorgan is expected to report between $5.44 and $5.62 EPS on $48.6 billion to $50.4 billion revenue.
Net interest margins are expected to remain broadly stable, averaging approximately 2.36% across the four largest banks (down slightly quarter-over-quarter), with loan growth expected to outpace deposit growth. Options markets are pricing post-earnings moves between 4.4% and 6.0% across the five reporting banks.
Canadian banks don’t report their next round of results until later this summer, but today’s US bank calls are worth watching for credit quality and lending commentary — themes that matter for the Canadian banking sector too. We’ll be watching whether strong US results carry over into sentiment on TSX financials.
TSX Context and Tomorrow’s BoC Setup
The TSX Composite closed Monday, July 13 at 35,252.72, down 52.59 points or -0.15%, holding above the 35,000 level it dipped below last week after Fed minutes flagged hike risk. Tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision is expected to hold at 2.25%—what would be the sixth consecutive pause—but today’s US data could shift market expectations for future moves. As we highlighted in this week’s market preview, the combination of CPI data and bank earnings sets the tone heading into the BoC announcement.
Data as of July 14, 2026.
What Canadian Investors Should Watch
- CPI headline versus the 3.9% consensus — a bigger-than-expected drop could support risk assets; a smaller decline or surprise increase would pressure equities
- Core inflation trend — whether core CPI holds near 2.9% or shows movement in either direction
- US bank credit quality commentary in earnings calls — any signs of deterioration would raise caution for Canadian bank earnings later this summer
- Fed guidance shifts in bank CEO remarks — comments on deposit trends, loan demand, or interest rate outlook
- TSX reaction in the first 30 minutes post-CPI (9:00am ET open) — watch for direction before tomorrow’s BoC decision
- Canadian dollar movement versus USD — stronger-than-expected CPI could pressure the loonie; weaker CPI could support it
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Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.
