TSX Jumps 1.3% as Fed Rate-Hike Fears Fade and Gold Soars
The S&P/TSX Composite climbed 1.27% to 36,550.10 by mid-afternoon on Thursday, up from the previous close of 36,091.60, in a broad rally that lifted Canadian stocks, gold, Bitcoin and US megacap tech at the same time. Data as of mid-afternoon September 3, 2026.
The easy read on a day like this is that markets are celebrating an imminent rate cut. That is not what happened. The debate in the United States right now is between holding rates where they are and raising them, and it was the hike side of that debate that lost ground today.
The reframe: this was a hold story, not a cut story
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in remarks prepared for a Reuters event on Thursday, September 3, that he could live with leaving policy alone. “If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level,” he said, according to CNBC’s report on the remarks. He conceded inflation is still “meaningfully above” the 2% target, but said recent trends “suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation.”
The caveat matters as much as the concession. Waller also said that if August inflation comes in hot, he would consider a rate hike at the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting. So the question on the table is hold or hike, and his comments landed as the softer of the two. They also read differently from the more hawkish comments last week from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
The bond market moved on it. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.75%, per Yahoo Finance’s midday market report. Our read of the session is straightforward: assets that had been priced for the possibility of a September hike repriced all at once, and the ones most sensitive to the level of yields moved hardest. That is exactly the pattern in the numbers below.
South of the border, the S&P 500 added 1.14% to 7,754.15 and the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.57% to 26,629.91.
Gold’s 3.83% jump was the biggest move on the board
Gold futures rose 3.83% to $4,533.70 USD an ounce, the largest single move in our data today. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no income, and gold has traded at record levels through 2026.
For a Canadian investor this is not a sidebar. The TSX’s materials weighting is why a gold day is usually a TSX day, and the miners have not simply tracked the metal this year. We looked at that gap this morning in our piece on why Canadian gold stocks are beating gold in 2026, which is the natural follow-up to a session like this one.
Oil sat the rally out. WTI crude was essentially unchanged, up 0.05% to $91.06 USD.
Nvidia buys Hugging Face, and Tesla leads the megacaps
Nvidia announced today that it will acquire the open-source AI platform Hugging Face for $12.93 billion. Nvidia’s own announcement says the platform hosts more than three million models and is used by more than 18 million developers, that Hugging Face will stay open, that Nvidia compute will not be required to use it, and that the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027. Nvidia shares rose 2.28% to $229.52 USD.
The rest of the megacap complex was firmly higher: Meta gained 3.67% to $614.60 USD, Microsoft 3.59% to $514.64 USD, Alphabet 1.93% to $343.62 USD, Amazon 1.76% to $259.46 USD and Apple 0.68% to $327.17 USD.
The biggest of them was Tesla, up 7.06% to $382.23 USD ahead of tonight’s Cybercab robotaxi launch event in Austin. The Cybercab is the two-seat autonomous vehicle at the centre of Tesla’s robotaxi plans. Readers holding or watching the name can find our fuller write-up on our Tesla stock page.
Bitcoin added 5.04%
Bitcoin rose 5.04% to $81,198 USD, or 4.41% to $111,767 CAD. That puts crypto in the same bucket as gold and megacap tech today, which is what you would expect if the driver is the path of policy rates rather than anything asset-specific.
There is a flow story running alongside the price. We covered this morning that Strategy has resumed its Bitcoin buying, with a purchase of 4,603 BTC, and the detail is in our report on Strategy’s return to buying.
Canada’s trade surplus nearly disappeared in July
The domestic data landed at 8:30 this morning and pointed the other way. Statistics Canada reported that merchandise exports fell 2.3% in July to $76.1 billion, the first monthly export decline in six months, while imports rose 2.2% to $75.4 billion. The trade surplus narrowed to $769 million from $4.2 billion in June.
The US is where the damage was. Exports to the United States fell 6.6%, and Canada’s bilateral surplus with the US shrank to $5.9 billion from $10.3 billion. Crude oil exports fell 5.6% on lower prices and volumes.
The more interesting line for a long-term investor is underneath that. Exports to countries other than the US hit a record $25.6 billion, or 33.7% of total exports. Canola exports rose 43.2% to their highest level since March 2023. On the import side, motor vehicle imports rose 11.4% to a record.
The loonie went up anyway, gaining 0.79% to $0.7254 USD, with the Fed story dominating the session.
Where this leaves the TSX
Through the September 2 close the TSX was down 0.49% for September. Today’s move flips the month positive. August finished up 2.96%, and the index has now closed higher in five straight completed months, April through August 2026.
What to watch next
Friday, September 4 at 8:30am ET brings Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey for August, the next domestic catalyst on the calendar. After that, attention shifts to the Fed’s September 15-16 decision, which by Waller’s own account turns on the August inflation reading. And tonight, Tesla holds its Cybercab event.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market data as of mid-afternoon September 3, 2026.
