Dollarama Earnings Preview: Revenue Up 17%, EPS Up 8%
The Street has Dollarama Inc. (TSX: DOL) growing revenue more than twice as fast as earnings this quarter. Consensus on Yahoo Finance calls for second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of about $2.02 billion from 14 analysts, up 17.4% from the $1,723.8 million the company reported a year ago. The EPS consensus is about $1.26 from nine analysts, up only 8.2% from the $1.16 Dollarama reported in the same quarter last year. The revenue range runs from $1,995 million to $2,061 million, the EPS range from $1.22 to $1.30.
What stands out is how little that earnings number has moved. Consensus sits at $1.2556 now, was $1.2556 a week ago, $1.2522 thirty days ago, $1.2533 sixty days ago and $1.2686 ninety days ago. That is a trim of about 1.0% over three months and nothing at all over the past week, against a stock that has given back 13.1% over its last 20 sessions. The estimate line has been still while the tape has not.
The roughly nine-point gap between expected revenue growth and expected earnings growth is not a sudden forecast of trouble. It is arithmetic the company set up last summer.
Australia is fully in the base for the first time
Dollarama closed its acquisition of Australian discount retailer The Reject Shop on July 21, 2025. The prior-year quarter, Q2 fiscal 2026, therefore carried only the post-acquisition period of July 22 to August 3, 2025, which is 13 days, during which 395 Australian stores generated $25.7 million of sales. Q2 fiscal 2027 covers May 4 to August 2, 2026, a full 13 weeks with Australia in every line.
The company quantified how little Australia touched that prior-year quarter: a 10 basis point impact on gross margin, a 20 basis point impact on SG&A, and an EBITDA contribution of $3.3 million that cost 40 basis points of EBITDA margin. Gross margin in Dollarama’s Q2 fiscal 2026 results release still rose to 45.5% of sales from 45.2%, on Canadian comparable store sales of 4.9% and 27 net new Canadian stores.
Now compare a full quarter of it. In Q1 fiscal 2027, reported June 11, 2026, sales rose 21.4% to $1,846.1 million while gross margin fell to 43.9% from 44.2%. The company attributed that decline primarily to a lower gross margin in Australia, a 110 basis point impact, partially offset by lower logistics costs and scaling in Canada. Australia contributed $192.8 million of sales from 410 stores and a four cent per share drag on net earnings.
So the bar this quarter is a 45.5% gross margin set almost entirely without Australia, and the comparison now includes a full quarter of it. The question is not whether consolidated gross margin falls year over year. It is by how much, and whether Canadian comps and lower logistics costs contain it.
Two other tensions are worth holding. Canadian comparable store sales ran 5.6% in Q1 against full-year Canadian guidance of 3.0% to 4.0%, so either comps decelerate through the back half or the company is running ahead of its own outlook. And the Dollarcity call-option fair-value gain is recurring noise inside reported EPS: $16.4 million in Q1 fiscal 2027 against $10.3 million a year earlier, worth six cents a share in the quarter. Dollarama publishes no adjusted EPS, and the $1.05 that appears as the June 2026 actual in the surprise table below matches the figure excluding that gain rather than the $1.11 the company reported.
Seven beats in eight quarters, and a reaction that does not follow
| Report date | Consensus EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise | Next session | 30 days | 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2024 | $0.97 | $1.02 | +5.37% | +8.18% | +15.04% | +13.61% |
| Dec 4, 2024 | $0.98 | $0.98 | -0.24% | -5.14% | -4.23% | +0.57% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | $1.31 | $1.40 | +7.14% | +0.38% | +7.37% | +18.93% |
| Jun 11, 2025 | $0.84 | $0.95 | +13.63% | +9.80% | +8.20% | +7.83% |
| Aug 27, 2025 | $1.15 | $1.16 | +0.69% | -3.64% | -3.89% | +5.98% |
| Dec 11, 2025 | $1.10 | $1.17 | +6.50% | -1.48% | +0.86% | -3.53% |
| Mar 24, 2026 | $1.40 | $1.43 | +1.84% | -9.60% | -8.62% | -0.86% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | $0.99 | $1.05 | +6.22% | +9.02% | +3.82% | -3.80% |
Estimates in the table are analyst consensus, not company figures.
Consensus and prices: Yahoo Finance.
Seven beats and one miss in eight quarters, at an average surprise of 5.14%. The share reaction has been a different matter. The average next-session move is +0.94% and positive in only four of the eight, the average 30-day move is +2.32% and positive in five of eight, and the average 90-day move is +4.84%, again positive in five of eight.
Inside that, the size of the beat is what tracked the reaction in these eight quarters. The five beats of 5% or more averaged +5.18% the next session. The two beats of less than 2% averaged -6.62%. The single miss cost 5.14% the next day. Clearing consensus by a hair has not been enough here.
Results like those make a good print and a good day look like separate events, because expectations, positioning and guidance all sit between the headline number and the share price. Our guide to what moves a stock price walks through those mechanics for anyone wondering how a company can clear the estimate and still lose ground the next morning.
The shares go in near their 52-week low
Consensus and prices: Yahoo Finance.
Dollarama closed Friday, September 11, 2026 at $167.11, down 0.55% on the day from a prior close of $168.03. Data as of that close, the stock has slid 5.53% over five sessions and 13.1% over 20, leaving it 0.7% above its 52-week intraday low of $166.00 and 20.4% below the $209.96 high.
Neither the index nor the sector moved with it. The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.54% on September 11, so Dollarama trailed the index by 1.09 points that day, and the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples ETF (XST.TO), a consumer-defensive proxy, fell 0.05% on the day and 1.84% over five sessions. Dollarama’s five-session move trails that sector proxy by 3.69 points.
The record behind the multiple
Dollarama fourth-quarter and full-year press releases for fiscal 2023 through fiscal 2026.
| FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 4,330.8 | 5,052.7 | 5,867.3 | 6,413.1 | 7,255.8 |
| Net income ($M) | 663.2 | 801.9 | 1,010.5 | 1,168.5 | 1,309.4 |
| Diluted EPS | $2.18 | $2.76 | $3.56 | $4.16 | $4.73 |
| EBITDA ($M) | 1,282.6 | 1,523.3 | 1,861.2 | 2,121.8 | 2,408.2 |
| Gross margin | 43.9% | 43.5% | 44.5% | 45.1% | 45.0% |
Diluted EPS compounded at 21.4% a year from fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2026, with fiscal 2025 running 53 weeks. That record is why the name sits on our list of the 10 best Canadian stocks to buy in 2026 and hold forever.
It is also why the shares are not cheap even after the slide. At Friday’s $167.11 close, Dollarama trades at about 34 times trailing earnings on Yahoo Finance’s trailing twelve-month EPS of $4.86, and at 32.6 times the $5.133 the Street carries for fiscal 2027. A stock priced for compounding has less room to absorb a soft margin print than the 20% drawdown from its high might suggest.
What to watch in the release
- Consolidated gross margin against the 45.5% prior-year bar, and the basis point figure the company attributes to Australia.
- Canadian comparable store sales against full-year Canadian guidance of 3.0% to 4.0%, after 5.6% in Q1.
- Whether the Canadian segment guidance is reiterated again or revised. It covers net new stores of 60 to 70, comps of 3.0% to 4.0%, gross margin of 45.0% to 45.5%, SG&A of 14.1% to 14.6% and capital expenditures of $420 million to $470 million. Note the scope: Canadian segment only. Dollarama gives no consolidated revenue, EPS or net earnings guidance at all.
- Any update on Australia, where the company said in the Q1 release that it “continues to expect a net loss for the Australian segment in fiscal 2027.”
- Australian segment sales and store count, against $192.8 million from 410 stores in Q1.
- Buyback pace. Dollarama repurchased 1,962,010 shares for $339.1 million in Q1 at an average of $172.83, above Friday’s close.
When and how Dollarama reports
Results are out before the open on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 7:00 a.m. ET, per the company’s own reporting advisory, with the conference call at 10:30 a.m. ET the same day. The quarter covers the 13 weeks from May 4 to August 2, 2026. Dollarama’s fiscal year ends the Sunday nearest January 31, so fiscal 2027 closes on January 31, 2027.
What it means for holders
The bear reading is straightforward. A retailer whose appeal rests on margin durability is heading into a quarter where the prior-year gross margin bar was set almost without its lowest-margin business, the Australian segment is expected to run at a net loss for the full year, and consensus already implies earnings growth at half the revenue growth rate.
The bull reading is that nothing in the estimate history suggests analysts have found a problem. The quarterly number has barely moved in 90 days, the full-year fiscal 2027 EPS consensus of $5.133 from 10 analysts is 9.2% above the $4.7023 the company earned in fiscal 2026, and Canadian comps at 5.6% are running ahead of the company’s own guide. Analyst price targets carry a mean of $209.24 and a median of $215.00, though a spread from a $148.00 low to a $231.00 high says the disagreement is real. For readers weighing where a defensive compounder trading near its 52-week low sits against its peers, our ranking of Canadian blue chip stocks on stress, not size applies the same balance-sheet test across the group.
Wednesday will not settle it either way. The margin line and the guidance language will say more than the EPS headline.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market and stock data as of the September 11, 2026 close.
