Crypto Market Recap Sep 17: Bitcoin Sits Out the Fed Rally Below $77,000 USD
Stocks spent Thursday celebrating a rate hike. Bitcoin did not get the invitation. At the 5:05pm ET snapshot, Bitcoin (BTC) stood at $76,456.02 USD ($107,062 CAD), up 0.40% over 24 hours, while the NASDAQ gained 1.69%, the S&P 500 rose 1.14% and the TSX added 1.08%. Ethereum (ETH) did somewhat better, up 1.37% to $2,449.19 USD ($3,432 CAD), but nothing in crypto came close to matching the equity tape.
Crypto trades continuously, so the figures below are a snapshot taken at 5:05pm ET, not a close.
The tape
| Asset | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $76,456.02 USD / $107,062 CAD | +0.40% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,449.19 USD / $3,432 CAD | +1.37% |
| XRP | $1.82 CAD | -0.09% |
| Solana (SOL) | $142 CAD | +2.66% |
| Cardano (ADA) | $0.28 CAD | +3.13% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.11 CAD | +1.13% |
Source: Yahoo Finance, 5:05pm ET snapshot. The smaller names leaned green, with Cardano and Solana ahead of both majors, but the sums involved are a footnote next to what happened in stocks.
What the Fed actually did
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday afternoon, on a 12-0 vote. The statement was blunt about the reasoning: “Inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.”
Equities took a day to decide they liked it, then bought everything: we walked through the stock market’s answer earlier today, a session where AMD rose 5.02% on no company news at all and gold miners led the TSX. The NASDAQ closed at 26,418.30, the S&P 500 at 7,637.76 and the TSX at 35,874.26. The short version is that the Fed paired its hike with an upgraded view of the economy, and the stock market chose to trade the upgrade rather than the hike.
Bitcoin has no earnings to upgrade, which is why the same document read so differently on this side of the market. It finished the day still below the $77,000 USD line it slipped under on September 13.
Worth noticing: gold told the same story. The oldest asset with no yield slipped 0.11% to $4,382.80 USD on the day, even as the TSX gold subgroup rallied 3.17% and materials led every Canadian sector. Equity claims on gold producers went up; the metal itself went nowhere. Companies with earnings caught the bid, and assets that pay their holders nothing to wait did not, whichever market they trade in. Bitcoin’s 0.40% fits that pattern exactly.
The dot plot is the crypto story
The rate decision itself was priced. The projections that came with it were the news, and they are the part that matters for an asset that pays no interest.
In the Summary of Economic Projections released with the decision (Table 1, page 2 of 17), the median participant now puts the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, up from 3.8% in the June projections. The new target range has a midpoint of 3.875%, so the median dot implies one more quarter-point hike before the year is out.
The end-2027 median is the sharper message: also 4.1%, up from 3.6% in June. Read literally, the committee’s centre of gravity now sees no cuts at all next year. The end-2028 median sits at 3.9% and even end-2029 at 3.6%, both roughly half a point above where June had them.
For stocks, that hawkish path came bundled with its own offset: the same table marks 2026 GDP growth up to 2.3% from 2.2% and marks unemployment down to 4.1% from 4.3%. Higher rates because the economy is stronger is a trade equities know how to make. A no-yield asset only gets the rates half of that bargain. Every quarter the funds rate spends above 4% is a quarter in which cash pays a holder of BTC nothing to wait, and the projections just extended that wait through 2027.
The honest limit
That is our read of the gap between the two tapes, and we should be clear about what it is not: a verified flow story. Nothing crypto-specific crossed the wires that we could trace to a primary source on Thursday, and we have no same-day reading on the spot ETFs. The observable fact is the divergence itself: stocks up more than 1% across every major index a day after the hike, Bitcoin up 0.40%. If ETF money was part of why the gap was not wider, or why it existed at all, that will show up in the flow data over the next day or two, and we would rather wait for it than invent it.
The loonie did some of the lifting
One detail for Canadian holders: Bitcoin’s 24-hour gain was 0.40% in USD but 0.50% in CAD, because the loonie slipped 0.44% against the US dollar on Thursday, to 0.7150 from 0.7182. A weaker Canadian dollar flatters the CAD price of anything quoted in USD, crypto included. The same arithmetic runs through the TSX-listed names that hold or mine crypto and trade in CAD; our ranking of Canadian crypto stocks covers that route to exposure inside an ordinary brokerage account.
Canada gets its own rate question on October 28
The Fed may not be finished, and the Bank of Canada has not started. Montreal Exchange one-month CORRA futures settled Thursday pricing a 54% chance that the Bank of Canada raises its 2.25% policy rate at the October 28 decision, with the contracts implying a rate of 2.39% against a spot CORRA of 2.29%. Narrowly, the market’s base case is that Wednesday’s hike gets a Canadian echo. A second central bank tightening into year-end would extend the same story crypto traded today: the price of waiting keeps going up.
Crypto price data as of 5:05pm ET, September 17, 2026. Equity and FX data as of the September 17, 2026 close.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Crypto prices from Yahoo Finance, 5:05pm ET snapshot, September 17, 2026. Equity and FX data as of the September 17, 2026 close. Federal Reserve figures from the September 16 FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections. Bank of Canada odds from Montreal Exchange CORRA futures settlements.
