Sangoma Earnings Preview: Margin, Not Revenue, Is the Story
Sangoma Technologies (TSX: STC; Nasdaq: SANG) is due to report its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and full year, and the company has not confirmed the day. Any honest earnings preview of this one has to separate two things the coverage is going to mash together: revenue, which is guided to land almost exactly where analysts already have it, and margin, which Sangoma cut by two full points in May. One of those is not a story. The other one is the whole story.
One housekeeping note before the numbers, because this company makes it easy to get wrong. Sangoma reports in US dollars. Its shares trade in Canadian dollars. Every revenue, EBITDA and EPS figure below is USD; every share price is CAD. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS are non-IFRS measures, and we never set them beside reported figures as if they were the same thing.
When it reports, and why nobody can hand you the exact day
Sangoma has not announced a date. Yahoo Finance’s calendar shows Monday September 21 after the close, but that is a feed estimate, not a company confirmation, and we are not going to present it as one.
The hard stop is real, though. Under National Instrument 51-102, annual filings are due 90 days after the fiscal year end, and Sangoma’s year ended June 30. That puts the deadline at Monday September 28. History narrows it further: the last two annual reports were filed with the SEC on September 18, 2024 and September 17, 2025, Sangoma being an MJDS filer under CIK 0001753368. As of September 19, nothing had been filed.
So the window is Monday September 21 to Monday September 28, and the tighter end of it is where the last two years landed. If you want to see it first, watch Sangoma’s SEC filing index rather than the company’s own newsroom, which backfills its press-release archive late.
Where the stock sits walking in
Sangoma closed at $4.75 CAD on Friday September 18, 2026, down 3.26% on the day and 7.05% across five sessions. That is its lowest close in a year, although the 52-week intraday low of $4.71 CAD from May 14, 2026 was not broken. The 52-week high is $7.62 CAD, and market capitalisation is roughly $180 million CAD. Prices throughout this piece are from Yahoo Finance as of that September 18 close.
We wrote up its fall to a one-year low at the time, and the detail of that slide matters for what comes next.
What the Street expects, and the estimate that moved last week
Consensus for the June quarter, from Yahoo Finance as of September 18, 2026:
- Adjusted EPS of -$0.068 USD, from five analysts, in a range of -$0.09 to -$0.06. The year-ago fourth quarter actual was +$0.01.
- Revenue of $51.27 million USD, from five analysts, range $50.80M to $51.53M. The year-ago quarter was $59.36M, so consensus implies a decline of about 13.6%.
- For the full year, revenue consensus of $204.54M, and for fiscal 2027, $209.47M, about 2.4% higher.
The more interesting line is that the earnings estimate moved, and it moved days ago. The Q4 adjusted EPS consensus sat at -$0.0367 for 90 straight days, then shifted to -$0.068 within the last seven days. The expected loss nearly doubled. The full-year fiscal 2026 EPS estimate went from -$0.192 to -$0.268 over the same week.
That revision and the stock’s 7% five-session slide happened in the same week. We are stating both facts and the fact that they coincided, and stopping there: we cannot source a causal link between them, and our coverage of the slide found no company announcement behind it. Results move a stock through the gap between what arrives and what was expected, which is the mechanism our guide to what moves a stock price walks through. The point for a holder is that the bar being cleared on report day is not the bar that stood a fortnight ago.
Analyst price targets deserve a caveat rather than a headline. The Yahoo Finance mean is $9.66 CAD, median $9.69, low $8.06, high $11.20, against a $4.75 close. Targets sitting at roughly twice the share price while the earnings estimate is being cut look more like coverage that has not been refreshed than like a forecast, and we would not treat them as one.
Consensus and prices from Yahoo Finance. One quarter is omitted for want of a published consensus.
The reaction record, which is a record and not a forecast
Across Sangoma’s last eight reports, the stock fell in the next session after six of the eight, with an average next-session move of -5.24%. Thirty days on, the average was -8.06%, higher in only two of eight. Ninety days on, the average was -3.73%, higher in three of eight.
Seven of those eight had a published consensus to score against, and that split two beats to five misses, at an average surprise of -34.7%. The eighth, September 2025, had no published consensus and cannot be scored either way. On a beat, the stock averaged +1.66% the next session. On a miss, -6.26%.
The most comparable event in the set is last year’s annual report, filed September 17, 2025, the same fourth quarter and full year print we are previewing now. The stock fell 13.9% the next session, was 20.6% lower 30 days later and 17.0% lower after 90 days. It was the worst reaction of the eight.
None of that tells you what happens this time. It is a record of how this stock has behaved, useful for calibrating how violently it can move on a print, and nothing more.
Moves measured from the last close before each release. Yahoo Finance.
What the company has actually said
Sangoma has addressed this year’s guidance four times, setting it, reaffirming it, narrowing it and then revising it down, and the shape of those changes is the tell.
| Date | Revenue guidance | Adjusted EBITDA margin | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 17, 2025 | $200-210M | 17%-19% | initial |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $200-210M | 17%-19% | reaffirmed |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $205-208M | 17%-18% | narrowed |
| May 13, 2026 | $204-205M | 15%-16% | revised down |
Source: Sangoma Q3 FY2026 press release, May 13, 2026, pp. 2-3.
Between the first guide and the last, the revenue midpoint moved by less than a quarter of a percent, from $205M to $204.5M. The margin guide fell two and a half points at the midpoint, from 18% to 15.5%. The reason the company gave, in full, was this:
In light of shifts in revenue timing, product mix, and current macroeconomic conditions
That is the only explanation on the record, from the same release, p. 3.
The March quarter showed the same pattern. Revenue of $51.0M was less than 1% below the prior quarter, so the top line held. Gross profit of $36.4M came in at 71% of revenue, down from 74% the quarter before, which the company attributed to higher product revenue carrying a higher cost of sales. Operating expenses of $38.5M were down $1.5M, or 4%, quarter over quarter. Net loss was $2.3M, or -$0.07 per diluted share, against a $1.4M loss and -$0.04 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $7.5M, 15% of revenue. Churn stayed under 1%, total debt fell to $32.5M, about 39% lower year over year, and cash stood at $15.2M. Nine-month free cash flow was $14.845M against $28.153M a year earlier, a 47% decline. (Q3 FY2026 press release, pp. 1-2 and p. 7.)
The two numbers we calculate, which nobody else publishes
Sangoma’s nine-month filed figures are revenue of $153.263M and adjusted EBITDA of $24.107M (Q3 FY2026 interim statements, note 18, and the press release reconciliation table). Subtract those from the full-year guidance and the fourth quarter falls out of the arithmetic. This is our calculation from the company’s own guidance and its own filings, not a company figure and not an analyst estimate.
Revenue: $204M less $153.263M is $50.7M, and $205M less $153.263M is $51.7M. Adjusted EBITDA: 15% of $204M is $30.6M, less $24.107M leaves $6.5M; 16% of $205M is $32.8M, less $24.107M leaves $8.7M.
| Q4 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 actual | Implied by guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $59.4M | $50.7M to $51.7M | roughly -13% to -15% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $11.4M | $6.5M to $8.7M | roughly -24% to -43% |
Q4 FY2025 actuals from the FY2025 annual press release, Sept 17, 2025, pp. 1-2. Implied range is our arithmetic on FY2026 guidance and nine-month filed figures.
Two things follow. First, the $51.27M revenue consensus sits inside the implied band, which means the Street is essentially modelling the company’s own guidance. Revenue is not where the surprise lives. Second, the year-ago quarter’s $11.4M of adjusted EBITDA at a 19% margin was Sangoma’s best in eight quarters, and the guided range implies this quarter lands well below it. The March quarter’s actual $7.475M sits inside the implied band too, so the guidance is not asking for a fourth-quarter recovery.
Why “revenue down 14%” overstates it
The headline comparison is going to be ugly and partly unfair. Sangoma sold VoIP Supply LLC to PVG Technology Holdings on June 30, 2025, the last day of fiscal 2025, for $4.5M (Q3 FY2026 financial statements, note 19), and it “owned and operated VS for the entirety of Fiscal 2025” (Q3 FY2026 MD&A, p. 11). Last year’s fourth quarter contains VoIP Supply revenue. This year’s contains none.
The company published its own like-for-like base when it first guided fiscal 2026: revenue of $200-210M “compared to $209 million in fiscal 2025 when excluding the contribution from VoIP Supply LLC” (FY2025 annual press release, p. 3). Measured against that $209M, current guidance of $204-205M is a decline of about 2%, not the roughly 13.6% you get by holding it against reported fiscal 2025 revenue of $236.7M. Most of the gap is a low-margin resale business the company chose to sell. The revenue line is close to flat on a comparable basis. The deterioration is in profit.
Four fiscal years, from the filings
Sangoma MD&A, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, p. 11.
Revenue peaked in fiscal 2023 at $252.5M and has fallen each year since, to $247.3M and then $236.7M. Guidance of $204-205M would make fiscal 2026 a third straight decline and the lowest figure in the series, which began at $224.4M in fiscal 2022.
Sangoma MD&A, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, p. 16.
Adjusted EBITDA has been the steadier line, drifting from $44.4M in fiscal 2023 to $42.6M and then $41.0M in fiscal 2025, with fiscal 2022 at $42.1M. Margin on those two reported lines works out to 18.8%, 17.6%, 17.2% and 17.3%, which is our arithmetic rather than a figure Sangoma states annually. That is what makes the guided 15% to 16% a visible break rather than more drift. Applied to $204-205M it implies full-year adjusted EBITDA of $30.6M to $32.8M (our calculation), a step down of roughly 20% to 25% from fiscal 2025.
Sangoma’s Friday close also put it back under the $5 line we use on our Canadian penny stocks page. It is not ranked there, and it will not be on the strength of this print alone: that ranking runs on balance-sheet screens, and the fiscal 2026 figures are not published yet.
Do not expect a strategic review update
In May the Board engaged ATB Cormark Capital Markets to evaluate strategic alternatives, “In response to inbound expressions of interest received over the course of the fiscal year”, naming “strategic partnerships, business combinations, investments, and other transactions” as the options on the table. The expectation-setting in that same release is unusually blunt, and it is the most useful paragraph in this preview. The company wrote that the Board
has not established a fixed timeline for this process, and there can be no assurance that it will result in any transaction. The Company does not intend to provide further updates regarding the process unless and until the Board has approved a definitive agreement or disclosure is otherwise required.
Read plainly, that means results day is very unlikely to carry a review update. A holder waiting for one should not treat its absence as news. (Q3 FY2026 press release, pp. 2-3.)
What we will be reading first
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, against the $6.5M to $8.7M the guidance implies and the $11.4M Sangoma posted a year ago. Whether full-year revenue lands inside $204-205M, which would confirm that the top line did what the company said it would. Gross margin, after the drop from 74% to 71% in the March quarter and the product-mix explanation attached to it. Free cash flow, after nine months at $14.845M against $28.153M. And fiscal 2027 guidance, if any is given, because that is the first number in this report that is not already known or already derivable.
Revenue is the line everyone will lead with. It is the line with the least information in it.
Company figures throughout are from Sangoma’s own filings, cited by document and page. Market prices, consensus estimates and price targets are from Yahoo Finance as of the September 18, 2026 close.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Company figures from Sangoma’s own fiscal 2026 third-quarter and fiscal 2025 annual filings, cited by document and page. Market prices and consensus from Yahoo Finance as of the September 18, 2026 close.
