Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
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Oil extended its rally into a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday, with Brent crude rising more than 2% overnight to near US$90 as attacks on shipping in the Middle East cast fresh doubt on negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As of early Wednesday morning, Brent (October contract) traded at US$89.53, up roughly 24% from late-February levels before the US-Israel war on Iran began.
The latest leg higher came as shipping in the region faced new attacks, raising questions about the timeline for a deal to reopen the critical strait. Mixed signals continue to emerge: according to reports, Pakistan’s defense minister said Washington and Tehran are “close to some sort of arrangement,” and reports suggest Iran-Oman talks are in an “advanced stage.” But President Trump took a tougher stance this week, saying Tehran should pay reparations. Tehran has maintained the US must lift its blockade before fully reopening the strait.
The TSX held its second consecutive record close on Tuesday, finishing at 36,476 (+17.59 pts, +0.05% as of August 11, 2026 market close). Utilities, telecoms, and industrials led Tuesday’s session, while energy stocks held their recent gains. Brent closed Tuesday at US$89.16/bbl (+1.64%), WTI at US$83.41/bbl (+1.56%), and gold at US$4,429.26/oz (+0.22% as of August 11, 2026 market close).
What It Means for Canadian Energy Investors
The bull case: Five consecutive sessions of gains suggest momentum, not a one-day spike. Supply disruption risk in the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments — puts a geopolitical premium under prices that is unlikely to fade quickly given the entrenched standoff. Canadian energy producers including Suncor, Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus, Strathcona, and International Petroleum all benefit from higher oil prices through improved earnings leverage. With Brent near $90, margins expand for integrated majors and pure-play producers alike.
The bear case: Oil at $90 is extended. The geopolitical premium can evaporate on a sudden deal breakthrough — negotiations are reportedly in an “advanced stage.” Today’s US CPI release (8:30am ET) could trigger USD strength if inflation runs hotter than expected, which historically pressures oil prices. Energy rallies driven by geopolitical headlines are vulnerable to sharp reversals when sentiment shifts.
Key risks: The biggest risk on the table today is CPI-driven USD volatility. Prediction markets assign roughly 78% probability to a July headline reading of 3.3-3.4% (down from June’s 3.5%). If CPI comes in cooler, a weaker USD could extend the oil rally. If it runs hotter, a stronger USD could pressure oil and reverse energy stock momentum built over the past week. Geopolitical escalation or sudden de-escalation in the Middle East remain tail risks on both sides.
Canada’s labor market added 75,000 jobs in July with unemployment at 6.4%, while the Bank of Canada holds rates at 2.25% with the next decision scheduled for September 2. This domestic backdrop supports consumption and industrial demand, but Canadian energy stocks are primarily driven by global oil prices and USD/CAD dynamics — both of which hinge on today’s CPI release.
What Happens Next
Wednesday’s CPI data is the next catalyst that could extend or reverse the energy rally. A cooler-than-expected print supports the commodity complex through a weaker USD. An in-line reading keeps oil near current highs. A hotter reading risks a pullback in both oil and TSX energy stocks that have rallied hard over the past week.
For Canadian investors positioning around energy, the setup is binary: CPI and geopolitical headlines will dictate the next move. The five-session rally reflects real supply risk, but $90 Brent leaves little room for disappointment.
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Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data as of August 12, 2026.
Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.