Bank of Canada Rate Decision: What to Watch This Week
The Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday, September 2 anchors a busy week for Canadian investors, and the suspense is not really about the number. All 35 economists in a Reuters poll published Friday expect the overnight rate to stay at 2.25%. The more interesting part of that poll is what comes next: the median forecast has the Bank’s following move being a hike, not a cut. Add Couche-Tard’s quarterly results Tuesday after the close and the August jobs report Friday, and there is plenty to work through before markets shut Monday, September 7 for Labour Day.
Wednesday: the decision, then the part that actually matters
Per the Bank of Canada’s schedule of upcoming events, the rate announcement comes Wednesday, September 2 at 9:45 am ET. Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers hold the press conference at approximately 10:30 am ET the same day.
The overnight rate is 2.25% and has been unchanged since October 2025, according to context published with the Reuters poll. When every forecaster surveyed agrees on the number, the number is not the news. The statement language and the press conference tone are the variables, which is why the 10:30 am ET session is worth more of your attention than the 9:45 am headline.
What the Reuters poll actually said
In the Reuters poll of economists published August 28, all 35 respondents expect a hold on September 2. The poll’s median path keeps the rate at 2.25% through the rest of 2026, and the first move in that median forecast is a hike to 2.50% in late 2027. The Federal Reserve may get there first, and we set the two policy paths side by side in Fed hike bets meet a Bank of Canada hold. Nearly half of the economists polled, 47%, expect at least one hike by mid-2027.
That framing is the story. For much of the past two years the debate among Canadian investors has been about how far rates would come down. In this poll, the direction of the next move is up.
On the reasoning, Avery Shenfeld of CIBC Capital Markets put it this way in the poll: “In the near term, any concerns over inflation ahead are roughly offset by risks to economic growth from trade tensions, leaving the Bank in a watchful-waiting stance.”
Reuters notes the poll was conducted after Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended tariff negotiations with the U.S. on August 22, 2026.
The data the Bank is weighing
Three recent Statistics Canada releases frame Wednesday.
Inflation is running hotter at the headline than underneath it. Statistics Canada’s July CPI release put headline inflation at 3.0% year over year, up from 2.8% in June. Gasoline, up 25.7% year over year, was the main driver. CPI excluding gasoline came in at 2.2%, the third consecutive month at that level. Grocery prices rose 3.1%, above headline for an 18th consecutive month. Those two measures point in different directions, which is close to what Shenfeld’s “watchful waiting” phrasing describes.
Growth held up in the second quarter. Real GDP rose 0.8% in Q2 2026, led by exports, household spending and business capital investment, with June monthly GDP up 0.3%. We covered that release in detail in our look at Q2 GDP and the rate decision.
The labour market tightened in July. Statistics Canada’s July Labour Force Survey showed employment up 75,000 (+0.4%), an unemployment rate of 6.4% that was the lowest in two years and a third consecutive monthly decline, and average hourly wages up 2.8% year over year to $37.17.
The next CPI print, covering August, lands Monday, September 14, after this week’s decision.
What a hold at 2.25% means for a Canadian portfolio
A hold is not a non-event, but it is worth being precise about what it does and does not change.
GICs and cash. GIC quotes are set against the prevailing level of interest rates in Canada. If the Bank holds Wednesday, and if the poll’s median path proves right that the rate stays at 2.25% through the rest of 2026, the backdrop behind those quotes does not shift this week. A poll median is a forecast, not a commitment.
Dividend stocks. The comparison a dividend investor makes, between the yield on a stock and what cash pays, has been set against the same policy rate since October 2025. Last week’s Big Six bank results are the more immediate input there. All six beat adjusted-EPS consensus, as we set out in our Big Six Q3 2026 scorecard. Our Canadian bank stocks and dividend stocks pages go deeper on how we think about that trade-off.
REITs and other rate-sensitive assets. The thing to watch is the path, not Wednesday’s number. If the median forecast is right, the near-term rate environment is flat rather than falling, and the move after that is up.
The Canadian dollar. We will not pretend to call the currency reaction to a decision that every economist already expects. If there is a move, the statement wording and the press conference will be what produces it.
Tuesday: Couche-Tard reports Q1 fiscal 2027
Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX: ATD) releases first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Tuesday, September 1, after the close of the TSX, per Couche-Tard’s release-date announcement. The conference call with President and CEO Alex Miller and CFO Filipe Da Silva follows Wednesday, September 2 at 8:00 am ET, before the Bank’s announcement that morning.
As of Friday’s close on August 28, ATD traded at $83.36, down 0.05% on the day, with a market cap of roughly $76.5 billion, a P/E of 18.08 and a dividend yield of 1.03% ($0.86 per share). Its 52-week range is $68.30–$95.15. Analyst consensus, as of the same date, is a Buy rating from 18 analysts with an average price target of $101.47. (Share data as of the Friday, August 28, 2026 close. Source: StockAnalysis.)
We are not going to guess at the quarter. What is worth noting is that the stock enters the print about 12% below its 52-week high, and that the results and the call straddle the rate decision.
Friday: the August jobs report
Statistics Canada releases the August Labour Force Survey on Friday, September 4. July set a demanding comparison: 75,000 jobs added, unemployment at a two-year low of 6.4%, and wage growth of 2.8%. Friday’s release is the first major data point after Wednesday’s decision and the last significant one before markets close for Labour Day.
The week at a glance
| Day | Event |
|---|---|
| Tuesday, September 1 | Couche-Tard Q1 FY2027 results, after the TSX close |
| Wednesday, September 2 | Couche-Tard call 8:00 am ET; Bank of Canada rate announcement 9:45 am ET; press conference approx. 10:30 am ET |
| Friday, September 4 | Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, August data |
| Monday, September 7 | Markets closed, Labour Day |
| Monday, September 14 | Statistics Canada CPI, August data |
Our take
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday, August 28 at 36,553, as covered in our Friday TSX recap. Today, Monday August 31, is the final trading day of August.
If you own Canadian dividend payers, bank shares or rate-sensitive assets, the useful exercise this week is not predicting Wednesday’s number. Every economist in the Reuters poll has already given you that. It is reading the statement and the press conference against the split in the data: a 3.0% headline CPI driven heavily by gasoline, a 2.2% ex-gasoline reading holding steady for a third month, growth of 0.8% in Q2, and an unemployment rate at a two-year low. Whether the Bank leans toward the inflation side or the growth side of that split is the signal, and the median poll path says the eventual resolution is a hike rather than a cut.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market and share data as of the Friday, August 28, 2026 close.
