Shopify Stock Down 4.7%: Why SHOP Fell as US-Iran Strikes Sent Oil Past $90
Shopify closed at $194.62 on Tuesday, down 4.69%, the largest decline among TSX large caps, and it happened without a single piece of Shopify news. What hit SHOP was the bond market. Yields on long US Treasuries pushed to their highest levels in over a year as traders priced rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase, and richly valued growth stocks, which are the most rate-sensitive things on any exchange, took the damage. Layered on top was a second force pulling the same market in two directions at once: a US-Iran escalation in the Strait of Hormuz that sent oil up almost 6% and Canadian energy stocks up with it.
The session at the close
| Level | Change | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,825.73 | -1.23% |
| S&P 500 | 7,631.47 | -0.71% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,099.77 | -1.03% |
| WTI crude | US$90.73 | +5.8% vs Monday’s settlement |
| Gold | US$4,375.40 | -1.3% vs Monday’s settlement |
| Shopify (SHOP) | $194.62 | -4.69% |
| Canadian Natural (CNQ) | $72.07 | +3.80% |
The morning story was that the TSX was losing less than everyone else because its energy weighting was doing its job. By the close that cushion was no longer enough. The TSX finished behind both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, because the index’s other heavyweights, gold miners, rails and Shopify itself, fell harder than energy could offset. September opened lower after five straight positive months for the composite.
Why Shopify fell: nothing happened at Shopify
The trigger came from the bond market, not from Ottawa. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 sent the 2-year Treasury yield from 4.20% to 4.34% in a single session on the US Treasury’s own daily yield curve, and the repricing kept running on Tuesday: Yahoo Finance’s live coverage put the 10-year at 4.79% intraday, its highest since January 2025, and reported Deutsche Bank economists now call a September Fed increase the most likely outcome. We laid out what Warsh said, and what he pointedly did not, in our piece on Fed hike bets meeting a Bank of Canada hold.
Higher long yields compress the value of profits that sit years in the future, which is precisely where a growth company’s value lives. That is why the TSX technology sector fell 3.22% while the index fell 1.23%, and why the same trade ran south of the border: Tesla down 3.08%, AMD down 2.13%, Amazon down 2.03%, Nvidia down 1.28%. The exceptions were Apple, up 2.57%, and Meta, up 1.14%. Shopify sold off with its asset class, not because of anything in its business.
Oil: the other half of the day
Late on August 31, two crude tankers were struck while sailing outbound through the Strait of Hormuz, and the escalation did not stop there. Yahoo Finance reported that US Central Command announced new strikes on Iranian targets Tuesday afternoon, with Tehran promising a response aimed at US bases and economic interests, and equities took their second leg down after that headline crossed.
WTI crude printed US$90.73 late in the session, up about 5.8% from Monday’s US$85.76 settlement. The energy sector rose 3.02%, the only strong group on the board: Canadian Natural gained 3.80%, Suncor 3.60%, Cenovus 3.53% and Imperial Oil 3.04%. For readers weighing what a sustained supply shock means for the producers, our guide to Canadian energy stocks covers the names that led today.
The gold tell
On a day of Middle East escalation, gold fell, finishing about 1.3% below Monday’s settlement at US$4,375.40. Bullion falling while missiles fly is the market saying the rate story outweighs the fear story: higher real yields raise the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing. The miners took it harder than the metal, with the gold sector down 3.60% and materials down 3.66%. Agnico Eagle lost 4.43%, Kinross 3.95%, Barrick 3.65% and Wheaton 3.59%. The rails also sold off, with CP down 3.79% and CNR down 3.22%, while consumer staples, up 1.10%, caught the defensive bid. Rate-sensitives held up better than the headline suggests: utilities slipped 0.66%, financials 0.80% and REITs 1.12%.
What’s next: the Bank of Canada, tomorrow morning
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision Wednesday, September 2 at 9:45 am ET. The overnight rate has sat at 2.25% since October 30, 2025, when the Bank cut from 2.50%, and Montreal Exchange CORRA futures price a hold, with essentially nothing in the contracts for a move in either direction. The sharper question is what Governor Macklem says about a Fed that may be heading the other way. After that: July merchandise trade from Statistics Canada on September 3 and the August Labour Force Survey on September 4.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Index, sector and stock figures are as of the September 1, 2026 market close. Oil and gold are late-session prints compared against Monday’s settlement.
