TSX Week Ahead: Counter-Tariffs Land Tuesday, US CPI Decides the Fed
Canadian markets get four trading days this week, and the first one opens with Canada’s counter-tariffs already in force. Monday September 7 is Labour Day, so the TSX, the NYSE and the Nasdaq are all closed. The week runs Tuesday September 8 through Friday September 11.
It is a short TSX week ahead, and a heavy one. It starts with a trade measure taking effect overnight and ends with the US inflation print that, on one Fed governor’s own framing, separates a hold from a hike at the September 15-16 Federal Reserve meeting.
Where last week left things
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday September 2 and flagged that upside inflation risks have increased. Its next decision is Wednesday October 28, arriving with the Monetary Policy Report.
Thursday September 3 produced the week’s best session, with the S&P/TSX Composite jumping 1.5% to 36,633.12 as Fed rate-hike fears faded. Friday’s labour data then split the two countries.
In Canada, employment fell 42,000 (-0.2%) in August against a consensus of roughly +15,000, per StatCan’s August Labour Force Survey release. The unemployment rate held at 6.4%, but that steadiness is doing less work than it appears. The employment rate fell 0.1 point to 60.8% and participation fell 0.1 point to 65.0%, so the flat jobless rate partly reflects fewer people looking for work. Public sector employment fell 20,000, a third consecutive monthly decline. Average hourly wages rose 2.0% year over year to $37.02, cooling from 2.8% in July.
The American print went the other way, and hard. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 against a consensus near +56,000, above the entire forecast range of -25,000 to +121,000, according to the BLS Employment Situation report. Unemployment was unchanged at 4.1%. July was revised up by 44,000, from -23,000 to +21,000, and June was revised up to +31,000. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year over year.
That is the part Canadian investors cannot look past, because it sets the tone for rates on both sides of the border. Going into Friday, the market priced just under even odds of a rate hike on September 16, and a payroll number above every estimate keeps a hike squarely on the table. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding if disinflation continues and a hike if August CPI runs hot, which hands the decision to the inflation data rather than the jobs data.
Markets finished the week softer. Data as of the September 4 close, the S&P/TSX Composite stood at 36,513.80 (-0.33%), the S&P 500 at 7,718.60 (-0.38%) and the Nasdaq at 26,506.99 (-0.29%). The Canadian dollar ended the week at about $0.7228 USD. Source: Yahoo Finance. Worth holding onto as context: the TSX has posted five straight positive months from April through August, August alone up 2.96%, and it entered the weekend up 0.67% for September.
Tuesday: the counter-tariffs land
At 12:01 am ET on Tuesday September 8, Canada’s counter-tariffs take effect. They apply 15%, 25% and 50% tiers to $27.6 billion of US-origin goods, matching dollar for dollar the US 50% tariff on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods. Goods already in transit are exempt. The Department of Finance names steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics as focus sectors.
Markets reopen the same morning, which makes Tuesday’s first session and the measure’s first day in force the same event. Which industries carry the cost, and how the tiers are structured, is the detail that determines who is actually exposed here, and we set out what the counter-tariffs cover and who feels them in a separate piece.
Tuesday: BMO’s buyback can begin
The same morning, Bank of Montreal can start buying its own shares. According to BMO’s September 2 release, the TSX and OSFI approved a normal course issuer bid for up to 25 million common shares, about 3.6% of the public float, commencing September 8, 2026 and ending no later than September 7, 2027. An automatic securities purchase plan is established September 8.
Read it for what it is. A Big Six bank beginning a buyback of that size on the day markets reopen is a statement about capital, not a trade signal, and nothing in the release says anything about the share price. If you are weighing where BMO sits against its peers on dividends, capital and valuation, our rundown of Canadian bank stocks is the place to work that out.
Thursday: Empire and Descartes report
Thursday September 10 is the week’s earnings day, and it fills both ends of the session.
Empire Company, the Sobeys parent, reports first quarter fiscal 2027 results at 8:30 am ET, before the open. The setup is lopsided rather than balanced: Empire has beaten in seven of its last eight reports, and the single miss cost the stock 9%. That asymmetry is the thing to understand before the print, and we lay it out in our Empire Q1 earnings preview.
Descartes Systems reports second quarter results after the close. An EPS miss has rarely sunk that stock, which makes the guidance and the commentary the parts of the release worth reading closely.
Friday: the number that decides the Fed
US August CPI arrives Friday September 11 at 8:30 am ET. It is the last inflation print before the September 15-16 Fed meeting, and on Waller’s own framing it is the input that decides between a hold and a hike. For rate-sensitive TSX sectors, that makes it the single biggest event of the week, and it lands on the final day of a four-day week with the decision itself only a few days behind it.
If the print runs hot, the hike that markets already priced at close to even odds gets harder to argue against. If it does not, the case Waller described for holding is the one still standing. Either way, Friday morning is where the week’s risk is concentrated, not Tuesday’s reopen.
Looking past the week
Monday September 14 brings Canada’s own August CPI. That is the print the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision leans on, and the first one that can show counter-tariff pass-through. Wednesday September 16 then carries the Fed decision and projections, plus Dollarama earnings.
Four trading days, then, bracketed by a trade measure taking effect on the way in and an inflation number on the way out. The middle of the week gives Canadian investors real company news to work with. The ends of it are what set the price of money.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market data as of the September 4, 2026 close.
