Empire Earnings: A 7-for-8 Beat Record and the One Miss That Cost 9%
Empire Company (TSX: EMP.A), the parent of Sobeys, Safeway Canada, IGA, FreshCo, Farm Boy and Longo’s, reports fiscal first quarter results on Thursday, September 10, 2026, before the market open. Analyst consensus sits at $1.04 per share against $0.91 in the year-ago quarter, and the notable detail is what has not happened to that number: it was $1.03 ninety days ago. The bar has been left where it was. Empire has cleared consensus in seven of its last eight reports, and on the one occasion it did not, the shortfall was a single cent and the stock fell 9.19% the next session. Below is what the street expects, what Empire’s own fiscal 2026 filings put on the record going into this print, and how the shares have behaved after each of the last eight reports. Consensus and price figures are Yahoo Finance data as of the September 4, 2026 close.
What the Street expects
Consensus for fiscal Q1 2027 is $1.04 in earnings per share, compiled from six analysts with a range of $1.03 to $1.05. Against the $0.91 Empire earned in the year-ago quarter, that implies roughly 14% growth.
The estimate trend is the flat line. Ninety days ago the Q1 consensus stood at $1.03. Sixty and thirty days ago it was $1.03. It is now $1.04. Analysts have neither cut the bar nor raised it in any meaningful way, so whatever Empire reports Thursday will be measured against essentially the same expectation that stood a quarter ago.
On the top line, consensus calls for $8.54 billion in revenue, from a range of $8.50 billion to $8.59 billion, against $8.258 billion a year ago. That is about 3.4% implied growth. Six analysts contribute to both the EPS and the revenue figure, so the consensus here is a narrow poll rather than a broad one.
For the full fiscal year, consensus is $3.59 per share within a $3.48 to $3.64 range, against the $3.24 in adjusted diluted EPS Empire reported for fiscal 2026, and $32.96 billion in revenue against $31.95 billion reported. Looking one quarter further out, the Q2 consensus is $0.77 against $0.69 a year ago.
One basis note, because it changes how the numbers read. The street’s EPS figures for Empire track the company’s adjusted earnings rather than its reported IFRS earnings. The clearest evidence is the year-ago quarter itself: consensus uses $0.91, and Empire’s own quarterly results table in its fiscal 2026 annual MD&A shows diluted EPS of $0.91 for the 13 weeks ended August 2, 2025, with no adjustment that quarter (p.17). The most recent report lines up the same way, at $0.94.
Price targets carry an unusually tight floor. The mean is $54.14 and the median $56.00, within a range of $48.00 to $58.00. At the September 4 close of $47.94, even the low target sits above the current price, and the mean is about 13% above it.
The beat and miss record
Empire has beaten consensus in seven of its last eight reports, with an average surprise of positive 3.8% (Yahoo Finance).
| Report date | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Surprise | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-12 | $0.87 | $0.90 | +3.5% | Beat |
| 2024-12-12 | $0.66 | $0.73 | +10.9% | Beat |
| 2025-03-13 | $0.62 | $0.62 | +0.5% | Beat |
| 2025-06-19 | $0.71 | $0.74 | +4.2% | Beat |
| 2025-09-11 | $0.88 | $0.91 | +3.6% | Beat |
| 2025-12-11 | $0.70 | $0.69 | -1.6% | Miss |
| 2026-03-12 | $0.71 | $0.72 | +1.4% | Beat |
| 2026-06-18 | $0.87 | $0.94 | +7.8% | Beat |
Empire Company reported EPS against analyst consensus, last eight quarterly reports. Consensus and prices: Yahoo Finance. Data as of September 4, 2026.
The margins involved are small. Six of the eight surprises land inside 5%, the March 2025 report came in at the estimate to the cent, and only December 2024 at positive 10.9% and June 2026 at positive 7.8% were wide. Across these eight quarters, Empire has landed close to its consensus in both directions.
The most recent report, on June 18, 2026, was the widest beat of the recent set at positive 7.8%. That $0.94 is the same figure Empire reported for the 13 weeks ended May 2, 2026, on sales of $7,807 million, up 2.2% year over year, with diluted EPS up 27% from $0.74 (fiscal 2026 annual MD&A, p.9). There were no adjustments in that quarter, so adjusted and reported earnings per share were the same number.
What the stock did after the last eight reports
| Report date | Next-day move | 30 days later | 90 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-12 | +5.6% | +6.8% | +12.4% |
| 2024-12-12 | +5.2% | +1.1% | +3.8% |
| 2025-03-13 | -4.5% | +8.0% | +16.3% |
| 2025-06-19 | +5.3% | +8.5% | -5.2% |
| 2025-09-11 | -1.1% | -6.7% | -0.1% |
| 2025-12-11 | -9.2% | -6.4% | -4.4% |
| 2026-03-12 | -2.9% | -2.3% | +1.9% |
| 2026-06-18 | +3.9% | +3.4% | n/a |
Empire share price moves after each of the last eight earnings reports, next session, 30 days and 90 days. Consensus and prices: Yahoo Finance. Data as of September 4, 2026.
The averages, as history and not as a forecast. Across all eight reports the next-session move averaged positive 0.29%, and the stock was higher the following day only four times in eight. After a beat, the average next-day move was positive 1.65%.
That is the asymmetry in this record. Seven beats produced an average next-day gain under 2%, and three of those seven were followed by a decline anyway: 4.5% in March 2025, 1.1% in September 2025 and 2.9% in March 2026. The single miss, on December 11, 2025, was a shortfall of $0.01 against a $0.70 estimate, or 1.6%, and the stock fell 9.19% the next session and was still 6.4% lower 30 days later. Those are the outcomes of eight specific reports, not a rule about the ninth.
Stretch the window and the picture improves. Thirty days after the report, the stock was higher five times in eight, averaging positive 1.56%. Ninety days after, higher four times in seven, averaging positive 3.52%, with the June 2026 report not yet 90 days old. The two weakest 90-day readings, negative 5.2% and negative 4.4%, followed a beat and the miss respectively, so the direction of the surprise has not lined up with the direction of the following quarter.
The dividend track record
The part of Empire that does not show up in a next-day move is the dividend. The company paid $0.22 per share in the fourth quarter and $0.88 across fiscal 2026, up 10.0% from $0.80 the prior year (fiscal 2026 annual MD&A, p.12). Total common dividends paid came to $201 million against $190 million the year before (p.23).
Source: Empire Company annual MD&A, FY2026 and FY2024 filings.
Dividends per share have run from $0.60 in fiscal 2022 to $0.88 in fiscal 2026. On fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $3.24, that $0.88 works out to a payout ratio of about 27%. The filings in our document set contain no new dividend declaration for fiscal 2027, so the forward rate is one of the items this report can settle.
The buyback has run alongside it. Diluted weighted average shares fell from 266.2 million in fiscal 2022 to 230.4 million in fiscal 2026, a reduction of about 13% in five years, and Empire repurchased 7,977,828 Class A shares for $400 million in cash during fiscal 2026 at a weighted average price of $50.15 (p.24). The company said it intended to renew its normal course issuer bid on or before June 25, 2026 for up to 10,750,000 shares, roughly 9.6% of the public float (p.24).
What to watch in this report
Everything below is Empire’s own stated expectation from its fiscal 2026 filings, not our forecast.
A pension gain the company has already announced for this quarter. On May 5, 2026 the company derecognized $357 million of pension assets and related liabilities in a group annuity buy-out, producing a pre-tax settlement gain of $22 million “to be recognized in the first quarter of fiscal 2027” (annual MD&A p.8, financial statements Note 32). The adjusted versus reported distinction will matter on the day, and the company should break it out.
The Mayrand acquisition. Empire said the purchase of Mayrand Food Group, four large-format locations in the Greater Montreal Area, “is expected to close during the first quarter of fiscal 2027” (p.7), with court and regulatory approval received after year end. This would be the first quarter with it inside the numbers.
E-commerce after the reset. Fiscal 2026 reported diluted EPS was only $0.86, down from $2.93, because of a $746 million pre-tax e-commerce impairment taken in the third quarter, $549 million after tax (p.6, p.15). Adjusted diluted EPS excluding it was $3.24, up 8.7%. Empire guided to approximately $95 million of annualized operating income improvement out of that review, about one third of which it identified for reinvestment in growth engines including technology (p.8, p.6). E-commerce sales grew 6.0% in the fourth quarter (p.6).
A named headwind. For fiscal 2027 the company expects other income plus share of earnings from investments at equity to total $90 million to $110 million, against $129 million in fiscal 2026 (p.8). That line runs through the Investments and other operations segment, whose fiscal 2026 operating income of $78 million included $51 million from Crombie REIT (p.13, p.17). Empire holds a large stake in Crombie, a landlord whose portfolio is anchored by Sobeys stores, which is how a grocer ends up with REIT earnings in its income statement. If that side of the business is what interests you, our ranking of Canadian REIT stocks covers the sector on its own terms.
Spending and footprint. Fiscal 2027 capital spend is expected to be approximately $850 million, about half of it on renovations and new store expansion including roughly 1.5% growth in store footprint, with 20% to 25% of the network slated for renovation between fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2029 (p.8). Empire also expects to open approximately 15 new FreshCo stores in fiscal 2027, including its first in Atlantic Canada (p.7). For context, fiscal 2026 capital expenditures were $842 million (p.19).
When and how it reports
Empire reports before the market open on Thursday, September 10, 2026, with the release scheduled for 08:00 ET. All eight of the reports in the tables above came pre-market, so a release before trading starts is the established pattern for this company. Empire opens a double-header on the TSX that day: Descartes reports after the close the same evening, covered in our Descartes Q2 earnings preview.
What it means for holders
At $47.94, Empire sits inside a 52-week range of $43.81 to $52.93, about 9% below the high, after gaining 0.25% on September 4 while the TSX fell 0.33%.
The constructive reading of the data: seven beats in eight reports, a consensus that was left in place rather than cut into the print, implied growth of about 14% in the quarter and 11% for the year, a five-year dividend record that ended with a 10% raise on a payout near 27% of adjusted earnings, a share count down 13% over the same stretch, and a target range whose low end sits above the current price.
The cautious reading, from the same sources: growth is slow at the sales line, with same-store sales up 1.7% in the most recent quarter and 1.4% for fiscal 2026 (p.9, p.12), and gross margin flat at 27.6% in that quarter. Six analysts set the consensus. The company has told investors to expect a smaller contribution from other income and equity earnings this year, and a pension settlement gain lands in this very quarter, which will widen the gap between reported and adjusted figures in a headline. And the reaction record is lopsided: the average beat has been worth 1.65% the next session, while the one miss, by a single cent, was followed by a 9.19% decline.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Consensus and prices from Yahoo Finance as of the September 4, 2026 close; company figures from Empire’s FY2026 annual MD&A and audited statements.
