Why the TSX Fell on a Day Energy and Tech Both Rose
Energy, technology and utilities all rose on Thursday and the S&P/TSX Composite still closed lower, down 0.23% at 35,154.76, 81.14 index points below Wednesday’s 35,235.90. Materials, 18.30% of the index, fell 1.24% and erased almost everything the three of them added.
The arithmetic behind a 0.23% decline
Weight times price return gives each holding’s contribution in percentage points, from BlackRock’s published XIC holdings as of September 30, a capped composite and so a proxy. The sector returns below are the book’s own cap-weighted returns, not the iShares funds’. The model lands at -0.23 pp against the printed -0.23% on 99.70% of index weight: close, not exact.
| Sector | Index weight | Return | Contribution (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16.20% | +0.81% | +0.13 |
| Information Technology | 8.56% | +1.37% | +0.12 |
| Utilities | 3.24% | +0.30% | +0.01 |
| Health Care | 0.31% | -0.54% | -0.00 |
| Real Estate | 1.22% | -0.29% | -0.00 |
| Consumer Staples | 3.01% | -0.56% | -0.02 |
| Communication | 1.46% | -1.22% | -0.02 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 2.92% | -0.62% | -0.02 |
| Industrials | 10.15% | -0.90% | -0.09 |
| Financials | 34.33% | -0.32% | -0.11 |
| Materials | 18.30% | -1.24% | -0.23 |
| Total | 99.70% | -0.23 |
Our calculation from BlackRock’s published XIC holdings as of September 30, 2026, against a printed index move of -0.23%. Contributions are shown to two decimal places, so a sector worth less than half a basis point reads -0.00.
The three risers added 0.26 pp. Materials cost 0.23 pp alone, about 88% of those gains, and eight of the eleven sectors fell, 0.49 pp between them.
Within materials, the drag was the precious-metals complex. On our classification of the 60 materials names, 42 are gold and silver miners, developers or precious-metals royalty companies; they carry 13.76% of the index, and 39 of them fell. Together they cost 0.18 pp of materials’ 0.23 pp. Agnico Eagle, 2.63% of the index, fell 1.49% for 0.039 pp; Barrick, 1.90%, fell 1.54% for 0.029 pp; Franco-Nevada, 1.30%, fell 0.94% for 0.012 pp. DPM Metals, 0.27% of the index, fell 8.91%, the steepest percentage fall in materials, for 0.024 pp. Several of those names sit on our ranking of Canadian mining stocks, and that is where their case is argued.
The largest single-name drag was Royal Bank, down just 0.74% but carrying 7.73% of the index, which cost 0.057 pp. On the other side, Celestica rose 3.12% for 0.040 pp and Constellation Software 2.60% for 0.032 pp, technology’s two biggest adds.
Materials is 18.30% of the TSX against 1.69% of the S&P 500 and information technology 8.56% against 39.66%, so the same session reads differently in Toronto and New York. The S&P 500 added 0.19% to 7,666.45, the NASDAQ Composite 0.04% to 26,871.60, and the loonie was at 0.7033 against the US dollar, up 0.12%.
Oil settled near $93 and the energy sector rose 0.81%
NYMEX WTI for November delivery settled at $92.94 USD a barrel, up $2.55 or 2.82% from Wednesday’s $90.39 on the same contract, our settlement-window reading from Yahoo Finance trade data. Crude rose and the producers rose with it, by roughly three fifths as much: Suncor up 1.85%, Cenovus 1.72%, Canadian Natural Resources 1.69%. The sector’s largest holding is a pipeline: Enbridge, 2.92% of the index against Canadian Natural Resources’ 2.75% and Suncor’s 2.25%, fell 0.57%. Near $93 a barrel flatters any producer, which is why our ranking of Canadian energy stocks is built on what survives $70 oil.
Manufacturing cooled for a second month, as S&P Global had warned
Reuters, reporting this morning’s release, put S&P Global’s Canada Manufacturing PMI at 51.5 in September from 53.0 in August, the lowest since March. Output came close to stalling: 50.8 from 52.8, barely above the 50.0 no-change mark. New orders went below 50 for the first time since March, and input costs hit 71.1, the highest since July 2022. August was itself down from 53.5 in July, and that release carried a caution from Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “However, given the latest survey was mostly conducted before the recent collapse of trade negotiations with the US, we may have already seen a high-water mark for growth.”
In New York, Alphabet opened higher and gave it all back
Alphabet opened at $350.79, above Wednesday’s $344.08 close, and finished at $338.24 USD, down 1.70% on the day and 3.58% from the open. US District Judge P. Kevin Castel denied Google’s summary-judgment motions on publishers’ principal ad-tech antitrust claims on Wednesday September 30, sending those claims toward trial, though he ruled for Google on several others, as Search Engine Land and Editor and Publisher reported. Alphabet’s own Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed before this ruling, records private actions overlapping the regulators’ antitrust claims as pending in the US and elsewhere.
The dates that matter next
The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, unchanged since October 30, 2025 after a cut from 2.50%. One-month CORRA futures are priced for a hold on October 28. It lands under four weeks after new orders contracted for the first time since March, with input-cost inflation at its fastest since July 2022. The Bank announces at 9:45 a.m. ET with its Monetary Policy Report, the US Federal Reserve at 2:00 p.m. ET, and Alphabet and Agnico Eagle both report that day. Before then: jobs October 9 and CPI October 19.
Disclosure
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The sector and single-name contributions are our own calculation: each holding’s weight in the index multiplied by its price return on the session, which is the arithmetic the index itself uses. The weights are first-hand, from BlackRock’s published holdings for the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite ETF as of September 30, 2026, a capped-composite book and so a close proxy for the Composite rather than an identical one. Contributions are shown in percentage points of the index move, to two decimal places for sectors and three for individual companies. The classification of materials names into precious metals and everything else is ours. Index levels, sector returns, share prices and the exchange rate are from Yahoo Finance market data for the October 1, 2026 session, and Canadian listings are in Canadian dollars. The crude price is NYMEX WTI for November delivery, priced at the settlement window: the volume-weighted price of trades from 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET, which is the exchange’s own settlement method, rebuilt by us from one-minute trade data. Both ends of that comparison are the same delivery month. The Bank of Canada policy rate is from the Bank’s Valet series V39079 and the rate expectation from one-month CORRA futures settlements on the Montreal Exchange. September’s manufacturing survey figures are as reported by Reuters; August’s figures and the quotation are from S&P Global’s own August news release, which we read.
