Ethereum Stopped Gaining on Bitcoin in August. Seven of the Last Eight Stalls Ended Lower
The story told about Ethereum this week is a story of accumulation: institutional buying, spot ETF inflows, coins leaving exchanges. Priced in dollars, that story holds together. Priced in Bitcoin, which is the only scoreboard on which “Ethereum is winning” can actually be settled, it does not. Over the 30 days to the September 22 close, Bitcoin returned +10.98% and Ethereum returned +11.65%. The ETH/BTC ratio moved 0.60% in Ethereum’s favour across an entire month. That is not winning. That is keeping pace.
What makes the last month interesting is not the size of the move but its shape. The ratio has gone flat for five weeks, and it went flat directly after a 90-day run of more than 20%. That exact combination has occurred eight other times since Yahoo Finance’s daily series begins on November 9, 2017. Seven of those eight had the ratio lower 30 days later.
One Ethereum priced in Bitcoin, daily closes. Source: Yahoo Finance, pulled September 23, 2026.
What the ratio measures, and what this piece is not
The ETH/BTC ratio is the price of one Ethereum expressed in Bitcoin rather than in dollars. At the 0.0318 reading from our snapshot at 06:05 ET on September 23, 2026, one ETH buys 0.0318 of one BTC, or put the other way, it takes roughly 31.4 ETH to buy one BTC. Spot prices in that same snapshot: Bitcoin at $85,868.28 USD and Ethereum at $2,733.54 USD, or $120,996.44 CAD and $3,850.64 CAD.
Say the obvious thing out loud before going further. Everything below is about ETH relative to BTC. None of it is a view on whether either asset rises in dollar terms. Both can rise together and the ratio can still fall, and in several of the historical episodes below that is exactly what happened.
The 90-day run is real. The last 30 days are not.
Returns to the September 22, 2026 close, from Yahoo Finance daily closes:
| Window | From | BTC | ETH | ETH/BTC ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 2026-09-15 | +14.12% | +14.66% | +0.47% |
| 30 days | 2026-08-23 | +10.98% | +11.65% | +0.60% |
| 60 days | 2026-07-24 | +34.62% | +47.88% | +9.85% |
| 90 days | 2026-06-24 | +41.47% | +69.81% | +20.03% |
| 1 year | 2025-09-22 | -23.47% | -34.55% | -14.48% |
Over 90 days Ethereum beat Bitcoin by 28 percentage points, which is a real divergence and not noise. Over the last 30 days it beat it by 0.67 of a point, which is. Stretch the window to a full year and Ethereum is still the laggard, down 34.55% against Bitcoin’s 23.47%, with the ratio 14.48% lower than it was.
The levels tell the same story. The ratio closed at 0.03188 on September 22 against a local peak of 0.03269 on September 12, and since August 19 it has traded inside a band 6.04% wide, from 0.03083 to 0.03269. The 2026 range for comparison runs from 0.02577 (June 6) to 0.03516 (January 6), and the two-year high is 0.04213, set on August 24, 2025. We covered Ethereum’s golden cross on September 11 and asked then whether the breakout would extend. Five weeks on, it extended against the dollar and stopped extending against Bitcoin.
The stall test, stated so you can rerun it
The test has two conditions, and both must hold on the same day: the ETH/BTC ratio is up 15% or more over the trailing 90 days, and it sits within 2% of where it stood 30 days earlier. A strong run, then a pause. Episodes are deduplicated to at least 90 days apart so that one long stall is not counted eight separate times. Run that over the full Yahoo series from November 9, 2017 and you get nine hits, the ninth being the one running now.
The current episode first triggered on September 18, 2026 and has held every session since, six in a row through today. As of today’s readings the ratio is up 21.56% over 90 days and up 1.34% over 30 days.
Change in the ETH/BTC ratio over the 30 days after each past stall began. Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes, 2017 to 2026.
Forward change in the ratio after each past stall began:
| Stall began | Ratio | Prior 90d | +30d | +60d | +90d | +180d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-12 | 0.09732 | +91.3% | -23.7% | -35.9% | -13.6% | -47.4% |
| 2018-06-22 | 0.07657 | +26.1% | -19.1% | -43.3% | -55.0% | -64.7% |
| 2019-03-12 | 0.03439 | +32.4% | -5.0% | -21.6% | -10.0% | -49.5% |
| 2019-11-17 | 0.02158 | +16.0% | -14.4% | -12.7% | +24.0% | -2.8% |
| 2020-04-14 | 0.02303 | +22.0% | -9.5% | +9.5% | +12.5% | +43.1% |
| 2021-02-18 | 0.03749 | +37.0% | -17.1% | +3.7% | +77.4% | +79.9% |
| 2022-08-28 | 0.07292 | +15.9% | -4.6% | +2.4% | +0.4% | -4.9% |
| 2025-07-06 | 0.02354 | +19.9% | +34.4% | +64.9% | +55.8% | +47.6% |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.03228 | +19.2% | open | open | open | open |
Across the eight completed episodes: at 30 days the median is -11.9%, the best +34.4%, the worst -23.7%, and the ratio was higher in 1 of 8. At 60 days, median -5.1%, higher in 4 of 8. At 90 days, median +6.5%, higher in 5 of 8. At 180 days, median -3.9%, higher in 3 of 8, with a range running from +79.9% to -64.7%.
Read honestly, that is two different findings. The near-term record is lopsided, and the longer record is close to a coin flip with enormous dispersion. And eight observations is a thin sample by any standard: one more episode landing positive would take the 30-day hit rate from 1-in-8 to 2-in-9, which is a large move in the headline statistic for a single data point.
The bull case is not a footnote here. The single most recent episode, July 6, 2025, is the one that went up, and it went up hard: +34.4% at 30 days, +64.9% at 60, +55.8% at 90 and +47.6% at 180. There is also room above the current level, because at 0.0318 the ratio sits 14.6% below where it stood a year ago and 24.4% below the two-year high of 0.04213. Nothing in this record says Ethereum cannot outrun Bitcoin from here. It says the base rate over the next month has not favoured it in the eight episodes on record.
The Canadian route, and what it costs
A Canadian investor has three broad ways to take this exposure: hold the coins directly, own TSX-listed funds, or own the equities, which we track on our Canadian crypto stocks page. The fund route is the cleanest one to measure. All four figures below are through the September 21 close, the last session Yahoo carries for these tickers.
| Fund | Close 2026-09-21 | From 2026-06-24 | From 2026-08-24 | From 2025-09-22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC.B) | $16.77 CAD | +40.22% | +10.77% | -22.90% |
| Purpose Ether ETF (ETHH.B) | $12.94 CAD | +70.71% | +13.21% | -33.23% |
| CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCX.B) | $17.68 CAD | +42.70% | +11.55% | -22.15% |
| CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF (ETHX.B) | $13.79 CAD | +72.48% | +13.40% | -32.24% |
The useful point is that the Canadian dollar route tracked the US dollar coins closely over the 90-day window: BTC-USD gained 41.47% against BTCC.B’s 40.22%, and ETH-USD gained 69.81% against ETHH.B’s 70.71%. This is not an FX story. A Canadian got very nearly the same outcome, less fees.
Fees are where the two sides differ slightly and permanently. Purpose Investments reports a 1.00% management fee and a 1.29% MER as of June 30, 2026 on its Bitcoin fund, with $2.2 billion CAD in assets as of September 22, 2026. Its Ethereum fund carries the same 1.00% management fee but a 1.42% MER as of June 30, 2026, on $468.6 million CAD in assets as of September 22, 2026, per Purpose Investments’ ETHH.B fund page. The 0.13 of a percentage point difference is small against a 28-point 90-day performance gap, but it is certain, and the performance gap is not.
One more cost sits outside the fund. Rotating between the Bitcoin and Ethereum funds inside a non-registered account is a disposition, so every switch crystallizes a capital gain or loss in the year you make it, and that bill belongs in the decision rather than the post-mortem. Our capital gains tax calculator for Canada will size it before you act. A reader who holds the coins directly rather than through a fund is in a different regime again, subject to the CRA’s crypto-asset reporting rules rather than plain ETF capital gains, and the agency’s information for crypto-asset users and tax professionals is the first-hand reference for that.
What would confirm the pattern, and what would break it
This is a framing, not a forecast. The historical pattern gets confirmation if the ratio slips back under 0.03173, its September 15 level, and then under the 0.0308 floor of the five-week band. It gets broken if the ratio clears 0.03269, its September 12 peak, and puts in a rising 30-day path from there, which would be the most recent precedent (July 2025) repeating rather than the seven before it.
The near-term read resolves on a defined clock. Thirty days from the September 18 trigger is October 18, 2026. Until then, the honest position is that Ethereum’s dollar strength is real, its relative strength against Bitcoin stopped compounding five weeks ago, and the historical base rate for what follows that pause is unfavourable but thin.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Crypto prices from a Yahoo Finance snapshot taken 06:05 ET on September 23, 2026. Return windows run to the September 22, 2026 close. TSX fund prices are through the September 21, 2026 close.
