TSX Closes Down 1.61% as US Yields Hit a 2026 High and Gold Miners Slide
The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,751.43 on Wednesday, down 1.61%, and the reason was set in the US bond market rather than anywhere in Canada. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose 15 basis points to 5.11%, the largest one-day rise of 2026 and the year’s highest level, and almost everything on the Toronto exchange that depends on cheap money went with it.
All figures below are closing values for the session of September 23, 2026.
Where the session finished
The TSX lost 1.61%. The S&P 500 fell 0.75% to 7,706.03 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.13% to 26,936.04, so Toronto underperformed both, which is what happens when the index is a fifth materials and a third financials and both of those fall. The Canadian dollar eased 0.25% to 0.7092 against the US dollar.
Shopify was the notable Canadian casualty outside the resource names, down 3.49% to $200.46, though the technology group as a whole gave up only 0.26%. Of the eight Canadian sector groups we track, exactly one finished higher.
| Sector | Change % |
|---|---|
| Energy | +0.50 |
| Technology | -0.26 |
| Real estate | -0.32 |
| Utilities | -0.76 |
| Consumer staples | -1.23 |
| Financials | -1.83 |
| Materials | -3.53 |
| Gold | -3.84 |
Sector performance at the close of September 23, 2026, measured using the iShares S&P/TSX sector ETFs as proxies for the sectors themselves.
The bond market did the damage, and it was a policy move
The interesting part of Wednesday’s yield spike is where on the curve it happened. Taking the US Treasury’s own daily par yield curve, the 2-year note rose from 4.71% to 4.85%, the 10-year from 4.96% to 5.11%, and the 30-year from 5.29% to 5.40%. The front end moved 14 basis points against the long end’s 11. A curve that shifts up from the short end is not investors demanding more compensation for lending out to 2056. It is investors changing their minds about what the central bank does next. Both CNBC and Yahoo Finance reported the 10-year at its highest since 2007.
Three things pushed them. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, in remarks on the long-term costs of shelter, said that “in my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.” Yahoo Finance reported that S&P’s gauge of US business activity expanded by more than economists expected, and CNBC reported that a five-year note auction drew poor demand. Both outlets put the market-implied odds of a quarter-point Fed increase in October at about 70%, from roughly 55% a day earlier, citing CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Set against where the year began, the repricing is stark. On January 2 the 10-year yielded 4.19% and the 2-year 3.47%. The 10-year is 92 basis points higher since; the 2-year is 138 basis points higher. A bond yield is not a stock price, but it is the rate every other asset is measured against, and when government bond yields rise the same future earnings are worth less today. That discounting mechanism is one of the few things that reliably moves a stock price across an entire index in a single afternoon.
The miners gave back far more than gold did
Gold fell 1.23% to $4,322.60 USD. The Canadian gold sector fell 3.84%, a little over three times the metal’s move, and that gap is the whole story of owning miners instead of bullion.
It is also larger than gearing alone explains. In the intraday version of this piece we regressed ten years of daily returns for 18 Canadian gold names against daily returns in gold, 2,460 trading sessions ending September 11, 2026. The most metal-sensitive name in that set, IAMGOLD, carried a beta of 1.84, which on a 1.23% fall in gold implies a decline of roughly 2.3%. The sector as a whole fell further than that. Wheaton Precious Metals lost 5.24% to $205.02, Agnico Eagle 3.91% to $275.50, Kinross 3.69% to $38.91 and Barrick 3.17% to $59.85.
Most of that was Tuesday’s gain being handed straight back. Our September 22 recap covered an index that closed up 0.91% on a materials rally the gold price itself never justified, with the metal up a fraction of what the equities managed. A move in the miners that the metal has not earned tends not to survive the week, which is why we rank Canadian gold stocks on the margin they earn per ounce rather than on the ounces.
The banks fell on a day higher rates are supposed to help them
Financials lost 1.83%, with CIBC down 2.72% to $157.19, TD down 2.39% to $168.49, National Bank down 2.19% to $209.80 and BMO down 1.98% to $240.39.
The reflex is that higher rates widen lending margins, and over time they do. What Wednesday priced was something different: how much more restrictive policy has to get before inflation cooperates. For a Canadian bank that arrives through mortgage renewals and credit provisions well before it arrives through net interest margin, and it arrives on domestic borrowers whether the repricing started in Washington or not. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since October 30, 2025, and its last move was a cut. One-month CORRA futures on the Montreal Exchange now carry 11.6 basis points into the October 28 decision, roughly a 47% chance of a quarter-point increase, and that announcement lands at 9:45 a.m. ET the same day the Fed reports at 2:00 p.m. Whether the Big Six bank stocks treat that as margin or as credit risk is the question the sector spent Wednesday arguing with itself about.
Energy was the exception, and part of the cause
The one green sector closed up 0.50%, helped by front-month WTI crude rising 2.28% to $92.58 USD. That is not a coincidence sitting beside the bond story. Crude at these levels is one of the inputs feeding the inflation expectations that repriced the front of the yield curve, so the same barrel that lifted Canadian energy names helped push the rest of the index down.
What is next
Statistics Canada publishes payroll employment and retail trade for July at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, September 24. BlackBerry reports second-quarter results the same morning. July GDP follows on Tuesday, September 29. The next scheduled rate decision is October 28, when the Bank of Canada also publishes its Monetary Policy Report.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Index levels, sector performance and single-stock closes are closing values for the session of September 23, 2026, from data/market-close.json. Sector performance is measured using the iShares S&P/TSX sector ETFs as proxies. US Treasury yields for September 23 and the January 2, 2026 comparison are from the US Treasury daily par yield curve. The Barr quotation is verbatim from his September 23, 2026 remarks published by the Federal Reserve. Bank of Canada rate expectations are derived from Montreal Exchange one-month CORRA futures settlements calibrated against spot CORRA. The gold beta figure is from our own regression of 18 Canadian gold names on daily gold returns over 2,460 trading sessions ending September 11, 2026, published in the intraday version of this article. Rate-decision dates are from the Bank of Canada’s published 2026 schedule and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar. Canadian equity prices are in Canadian dollars; gold and crude are in US dollars.
