Why Canadian Gold Stocks Fell Nearly 5% as US Yields Hit a 2026 High
Canadian gold stocks did roughly three quarters of the damage on the S&P/TSX Composite on Monday September 28, 2026. The 42 gold and silver names in the index fell 4.74% as a block and took 0.671 of an index point out of a decline of 0.869%, which is 77.2% of the entire move. The reason is dated and first hand: the US Treasury yield curve closed at its highest level of 2026 at the 2-year, the 10-year and the 30-year, and a bond pays interest where an ounce of gold does not.
Where the session finished
The composite closed at 35,489.86, down 0.87% from Friday’s 35,800.90. The S&P 500 closed at 7,683.69, down 0.77%, and the NASDAQ at 26,820.38, down 0.92%. The Canadian dollar eased 0.25% to 0.7054, or 70.54 US cents, and Bitcoin finished at $83,525.40 USD, down 1.11%.
Those two index declines are closer together than what sits behind them. Materials is 18.96% of the S&P/TSX Composite and 1.71% of the S&P 500, eleven times the weight, on the iShares XIC and XUS holdings files published by BlackRock Canada as of September 25, 2026. Materials took 0.706 of a point off the Canadian index on Monday, out of a decline of 0.869%. At 1.71% of the S&P 500, the same sector move is worth a few basis points to the American index. That gap in weight is why a gold selloff is a market event in Canada and a small line item in the United States. The two indices did not fall for the same reasons, and Materials is not the only difference between them.
The decline was wide as well as concentrated. Of the 217 index members priced in our attribution, 148 fell, 68 rose and one was unchanged.
The commodities split cleanly. The December gold contract settled at $4,154.90 USD, down 3.85%, and the December silver contract at $61.11 USD, down 5.70% from Friday’s $64.80. The November WTI crude contract went the other way, closing at $92.96 USD, up 0.60%.
The US mega caps were mostly heavy, with Meta down 4.31% to $715.62, Tesla down 4.06% to $357.45 and AMD down 3.66% to $607.87. Nvidia was the exception, up 1.72% to $228.86. Data as of the close on Monday September 28, 2026.
The US Treasury curve closed at its highest level of 2026
Every maturity that matters to a gold holder moved up on Monday. The 2-year yield went from 4.81% on Friday to 4.92%, a rise of 11 basis points. The 10-year went from 5.17% to 5.24% and the 30-year from 5.49% to 5.56%, each a rise of 7 basis points. Across all 186 published sessions of 2026, Monday September 28 is the maximum reading for all three, according to the US Treasury’s daily yield curve rates for 2026. The 2-year opened the year at 3.47% on January 2 and the 10-year at 4.19%.
Two reports published the same day point at the same drivers. Yahoo Finance’s September 28 gold report, by Tim Manni, attributes the slump in gold to a stronger dollar, rising bond yields and rising expectations of another increase in the federal funds rate, and cites CME Group data putting more than a 70% chance on a Fed hike in October. It also reports that President Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices higher. The USAGOLD daily precious metals report for the same day puts the October hike probability at 70.3%, up from 64.2% a day earlier, and names the same Iran and Hormuz trigger behind the crude rebound.
Canada’s rate market moved the same way. Monday’s one-month CORRA futures settlements on the Montreal Exchange’s COA quotes page price 13.56 basis points of tightening into the October 28 Bank of Canada decision, an implied rate of 2.39% against the current 2.25%, which works out to a 54% chance of a quarter point hike. Friday’s settlements priced 47%. The policy rate has been 2.25% since October 30, 2025, arrived at by a cut from 2.50%. Canadian bond yields run a business day behind, so Friday September 25 is the latest published set: the 10-year at 3.94%, the 5-year at 3.65% and the 2-year at 3.35%, up from 3.83%, 3.54% and 3.25% on September 22, per the Bank of Canada’s Canadian bond yield series.
The index barely moved after the open, but the composition inverted
The composite was down 0.783% at 9:46 am ET and closed down 0.869%. Less than a tenth of a point separates those two readings, and almost nothing else about them matches.
We attribute the day by multiplying every holding in the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF by its own price return and summing by sector, using BlackRock Canada’s holdings file as of September 25, 2026 and Monday’s closing prices. The model returns a decline of 0.867 percentage points from 99.82% of index weight against the index’s own printed 0.869%, two different sources landing on each other to three decimals.
The figures in the third column below are live readings taken sixteen minutes into the session, at 9:46 am ET, not opening prints.
| Sector | Weight | 9:46 am ET | Close | Close return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Materials | 18.96% | -0.619 | -0.706 | -3.73% |
| Financials | 34.54% | -0.015 | -0.226 | -0.65% |
| Industrials | 10.11% | -0.001 | -0.038 | -0.38% |
| Communication | 1.46% | -0.020 | -0.022 | -1.53% |
| Health Care | 0.31% | -0.002 | +0.000 | +0.07% |
| Real Estate | 1.19% | -0.001 | +0.002 | +0.12% |
| Consumer Staples | 3.01% | -0.003 | +0.005 | +0.16% |
| Utilities | 3.18% | +0.003 | +0.014 | +0.44% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 2.85% | +0.005 | +0.020 | +0.72% |
| Energy | 16.04% | +0.065 | +0.037 | +0.23% |
| Information Technology | 8.17% | -0.196 | +0.047 | +0.58% |
Two swings did nearly all of the rearranging and they were almost equal and opposite. Information Technology added 0.244 points between 9:46 am ET and the close, moving from the second largest drag to a positive contributor. Financials went the other way by 0.211 points, from contributing almost nothing to being the second largest drag. Everything else moved by less than 0.09 points.
Shopify is the technology swing in one name. It was down 3.51% at 9:46 am ET and the largest single drag on the index at 0.168 points. It closed up 1.49% at $204.20 as the largest single add at 0.071 points, a move of 5.0 percentage points on the stock and 0.239 index points.
The banks turned over the same hours. Four of the Big Six were green at 9:46 am ET: Royal Bank up 0.28%, TD up 0.08%, Scotiabank up 0.06% and BMO up 0.02%, against CIBC down 0.52% and National Bank down 0.21%. All six closed red: Royal Bank down 0.20%, TD 0.64%, Scotiabank 0.58%, BMO 0.54%, CIBC 1.02% and National Bank 0.98%. Financials are 34.54% of the index against Materials at 18.96%, so the sector’s 0.65% decline cost 0.226 index points while a 3.73% fall in Materials cost 0.706. For readers weighing what a third of the Canadian market actually holds, our ranking of Canadian bank stocks takes the Big Six apart on their third quarter results, capital, profitability and valuation.
The gold and silver names carried the decline
Materials in total took 0.706 points off the index, 81.3% of the day’s decline. The precious metals block inside it, 14.16% of the index, took 0.671 points on its own. At 9:46 am ET that block was down 3.82% for 0.540 points and 69.0% of the decline, so it deepened through the day. The 19 Materials names outside precious metals, 4.80% of the index, fell only 0.74% at the close against 1.63% at 9:46 am ET. This was a precious metals day rather than a commodities day.
Silver led it down. The December silver contract fell 5.70% against the gold contract’s 3.85%, and the silver levered names in the index took the worst of the session: AbraSilver down 6.95%, Aya Gold and Silver down 6.67%, Americas Gold and Silver down 6.31%, First Majestic down 5.46%, Avino down 5.13% and Pan American Silver down 4.60%. Calling the whole block gold understates where the damage landed.
| Weight | Return | Contribution | Close | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | 2.74% | -5.11% | -0.140 | $261.04 |
| Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) | 1.80% | -5.00% | -0.090 | $192.01 |
| Barrick Mining (ABX) | 1.96% | -4.15% | -0.081 | $58.18 |
| Franco-Nevada (FNV) | 1.38% | -4.35% | -0.060 | $348.78 |
| TD Bank (TD) | 5.51% | -0.64% | -0.035 | $169.60 |
| Brookfield (BN) | 2.19% | -1.48% | -0.032 | $51.38 |
| Kinross (K) | 0.83% | -3.81% | -0.032 | $34.11 |
| CIBC (CM) | 2.86% | -1.02% | -0.029 | $159.08 |
| Celestica (CLS) | 1.28% | -2.10% | -0.027 | $505.83 |
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) | 0.56% | -4.60% | -0.026 | $64.86 |
Two of those returns are worth naming precisely. The holdings file’s reference price for CIBC and National Bank sat more than 0.5% from their live previous close, so the attribution carries them at 1.02% and 0.98% while their quoted moves for the day were 0.97% and 0.91%. The tables and contributions here stay on the attribution basis, which reconciles to the index print.
On the other side, Suncor added 0.021 points on a 0.92% gain, Enbridge 0.020 on 0.68% and Canadian Natural 0.009 on 0.31%, which is how a 16.04% energy weight finished the day positive.
The miners gave back about six points of their year in one session
The iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF closed at $55.65, down 5.14%, against a 3.85% fall in the December gold contract. That gap between the metal and the companies that dig it is the operating leverage a miner carries, and it runs in both directions.
XGD started the year at $51.12 on December 31, 2025 and peaked at $69.05 on February 27, up 35.07% year to date at that point. What followed was a round trip rather than a drift: the fund was roughly 14% underwater on the year by July, back to roughly 27% up in late August, and came into Monday at Friday’s $58.67, up 14.77% on the year. It left Monday at $55.65, up 8.86%. That is 5.91 percentage points of the year surrendered in one session, and it leaves the fund 19.41% below its February peak. The gap to that peak closes from one end if the metal price recovers and from the other if the miners fall further, and Monday moved it the second way. What decides which of them absorbs a session like this with the least damage is what each keeps per ounce sold, which is the basis for our ranking of Canadian gold stocks on margin rather than ounces.
Two sessions are left in September and in the quarter
The composite is down 2.15% month to date with two sessions to run, Tuesday the 29th and Wednesday the 30th, which are also the last two of the third quarter. The five completed months before this one were all positive: April up 3.65%, May up 2.37%, June up 0.25%, July up 1.06% and August up 2.96%. March, at down 4.58%, was the last month to finish in the red. A five month run of positive months is on the line, and two sessions decide it.
What is next on the calendar
Statistics Canada publishes July 2026 GDP at 8:30 am ET on Tuesday September 29, and we set out what is at stake in our preview of the July GDP print ahead of the Bank of Canada’s October decision.
The bigger date is Wednesday October 28, when the Bank of Canada publishes its decision alongside the Monetary Policy Report and the US Federal Reserve announces its own decision the same day. Both are on the institutions’ published schedules. Agnico Eagle, the largest single drag on the index on Monday, reports third quarter results that day as well.
Sources. Index, commodity, currency and single-stock prices: Yahoo market data, closes of Monday September 28, 2026, futures priced by contract symbol (CLX26.NYM, GCZ26.CMX, SIZ26.CMX). Monthly and month to date composite returns: Yahoo market data, S&P/TSX Composite closes. US yields: US Treasury daily treasury yield curve rates, 2026 series, through September 28, 2026. Canadian yields: Bank of Canada Canadian bond yields, as of Friday September 25, 2026. Hike odds: Montreal Exchange one-month CORRA futures settlements of September 28, 2026, with spot CORRA from the Bank of Canada Valet API. Policy rate: Bank of Canada Valet series V39079. Attribution and index weights: our arithmetic on iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF and iShares Core S&P 500 Index ETF holdings published by BlackRock Canada as of September 25, 2026, applied to Monday’s closes. Attributed cause: Yahoo Finance gold report and USAGOLD daily precious metals report, both September 28, 2026. Calendar: Statistics Canada key indicators release schedule, Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve published schedules.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Every session figure is a closing price for Monday, September 28, 2026 unless it is labelled a 9:46 am ET reading, which is a live quote sixteen minutes into the session and not a close. Gold, silver and crude are front-month futures priced by contract symbol (GCZ26.CMX, SIZ26.CMX, CLX26.NYM) against Friday’s closes, in US dollars, from Yahoo. The sector and single-name attribution is each holding’s fund weight times its own price return, summed by sector, using the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF holdings file as of September 25, 2026 for Canadian weights and the iShares Core S&P 500 Index ETF for the American comparison, both published by BlackRock Canada. The grouping of 42 gold and silver names is our own classification of holdings in that file. Government bond yields are from the US Treasury daily yield curve and the Bank of Canada Valet API. Bank of Canada rate expectations are computed from Montreal Exchange one-month CORRA futures settlements with spot CORRA from the Bank of Canada. Percentages derived from these figures, including sector contributions and the year-to-date comparisons, are our arithmetic.
