Shopify Stock Rose 2.9% as the TSX Stalled: Why SHOP Led
Shopify stock was the biggest gainer among the Canadian large caps on Tuesday, with the Toronto listing up 2.86% to $210.04 CAD. The S&P/TSX Composite went almost nowhere around it, closing down 0.08%, while crude fell 3.47% on the day.
The session barely moved in either direction
The TSX Composite closed at 35,460.27, down 29.63 points from Monday’s 35,489.90. South of the border the S&P 500 finished at 7,670.84, down 0.17%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,797.54, down 0.09%. Gold closed at $4,207.00 USD, up 0.93%. The Canadian dollar eased 0.12% to 0.7046 against the greenback, leaving the loonie buying just over 70 US cents. Data as of September 29, 2026.
The bid behind Shopify was wider than one analyst note
The named catalyst was a Morgan Stanley note published Tuesday. Analyst Adam Wood reiterated an overweight rating on Shopify with a $192 USD price target, arguing the company benefits as agentic shopping grows. That means software agents doing the buying on a shopper’s behalf, so the checkout happens without the shopper ever visiting a storefront. In Wood’s words, Shopify “monetizes the transaction rather than the impression, leaving it agnostic to where demand originates & more valuable as consumer discovery channels fragment.” He does not see the trend moving estimates yet. The note was reported by GuruFocus on Tuesday, and it is an analyst view rather than anything the company itself said. For scale against that target, Shopify’s New York listing closed at $148.26 USD, up 2.87%, so the Toronto and New York lines moved together on the day and the target sits well above the US price.
One analyst note is a thin explanation for a 2.86% move, and two things argue against giving it the credit. The first is how ordinary a move that size is in this stock: over the last year Shopify’s Toronto listing moved at least 2.86% close to close, in one direction or the other, on 85 of 251 sessions, so a 2.9% day is roughly one Shopify session in three. A move that size is not on its own evidence that anything happened, which is the harder half of reading any single session, and our guide to what moves a stock price covers the mechanics. The second is the company it kept. Celestica rose 2.65% to $519.22 CAD and Constellation Software added 1.31% to $2,896.47 CAD, while the Canadian technology proxy gained 1.84% on the iShares sector ETFs. In the US, Meta rose 2.88% to $738.79 USD. The honest reading is a broad bid for commerce and AI names, with a Shopify-specific note layered on top of it.
A day like Tuesday also does less to the longer picture than it looks. Shopify closed 2025 at $221.00 CAD and is down 4.96% so far in 2026, inside a 52-week closing range that runs from $130.71 CAD on May 13, 2026 to $249.71 CAD on October 29, 2025.
Crude fell 3.47% and Canadian energy followed it down
WTI for November delivery came in at $89.37 USD, down from $92.58 USD on Monday, a fall of 3.47%. That figure is NYMEX WTI, November contract, settlement window 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET, our calculation from Yahoo Finance trade data. It puts the barrel 5.60% below where the same November contract settled on Thursday September 24, at $94.67 USD.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that crude fell as Middle East export flows recovered and fears of supply disruption eased. Reuters said Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting the East-West Pipeline, and that Middle East crude exports rebounded in September to their highest level since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February. Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial told Reuters that “Saudi’s East/West pipeline flows have moved up” and that “as more oil flows through the Middle East, the less bargaining power Iran will have.” Reuters also noted that both crude benchmarks remain on course for a monthly gain despite Tuesday’s drop.
The transmission from the barrel to the index ran through the producers. Suncor fell 1.68% to $95.82 CAD and the energy proxy lost 1.31%, the weakest of the eight sectors. For a Canadian holder, a session like this one is where the barrel stops being a commodity headline and starts being a mark on a position in a name like Suncor. Which of those producers is worth owning through a swing of this size is the question our page on Canadian energy stocks exists to answer.
Technology led the sectors and energy trailed them
Measured on the iShares sector ETFs, the day sorted cleanly.
| Sector | Change |
|---|---|
| Technology | +1.84% |
| Gold | +0.97% |
| Materials | +0.59% |
| Utilities | +0.43% |
| Real estate | +0.06% |
| Financials | -0.41% |
| Consumer staples | -0.59% |
| Energy | -1.31% |
The two heaviest large-cap declines came from the same corner. Great-West Lifeco fell 2.18% to $90.74 CAD and Power Corporation fell 2.05% to $91.53 CAD. Power Corporation is Great-West Lifeco’s controlling shareholder. National Bank lost 1.12% to $207.80 CAD.
Flat July GDP feeds a rate decision now priced as a hike
Statistics Canada reported Tuesday morning that Canada’s real GDP by industry was “essentially unchanged” in July. Against July 2025 the same series is up 1.42% on our arithmetic. That headline is the surface of the release, and the revisions sitting underneath it matter more for the quarter: we broke those out separately in what the July GDP revisions did to the quarter.
It lands in front of a central bank that has not moved in eleven months. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, unchanged since October 30, 2025, and the last move it made was a cut. The next decision is October 28, and one-month CORRA futures on the Montreal Exchange price 13.56 basis points toward that meeting. Reading that pricing as a choice between a hold and a 25 basis point hike puts the odds at roughly 54%, which makes a hike the better than even call for the next move.
Month end lands Wednesday with a five-month streak on the line
Wednesday September 30 is both month end and quarter end. The TSX is down 2.23% so far in September with one session left to trade, which puts it on course to end a five-month winning streak: the index rose in April (+3.65%), May (+2.37%), June (+0.25%), July (+1.06%) and August (+2.96%). After that, the calendar brings Statistics Canada merchandise trade for August on Tuesday October 6, Aritzia’s results on Thursday October 8, and the September Labour Force Survey on Friday October 9.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Index levels, sector readings, single-stock closes, gold, the Canadian dollar and the month-to-date and monthly figures are Yahoo Finance market data for the September 29, 2026 session. Sector readings are the iShares sector ETFs named in the article, and every equity figure is a price change rather than a total return. Canadian listings are quoted in Canadian dollars and US listings in US dollars. The oil price is NYMEX WTI on the named November 2026 contract, and it is the volume-weighted price of trades in the two minutes to 2:30 p.m. ET, which is the exchange’s own settlement method, rebuilt from one-minute trade data. Both ends of every oil comparison are that same November contract, so no figure is priced across a contract roll. The Bank of Canada policy rate and the date it took effect are the Bank’s own Valet series V39079. The October 28 pricing is derived from Montreal Exchange one-month CORRA futures settlements calibrated against spot CORRA. It is our arithmetic and not a published consensus, and the 54% reads that pricing as a choice between a hold and a 25 basis point hike, which the article states. The Shopify scale figures, the 85 of 251 sessions, the 2026 return, the 52-week closing range and the July GDP year-over-year change are our arithmetic on the underlying daily series. The cause of the crude move is Reuters reporting, attributed in the text and linked. The Morgan Stanley note is an analyst view, credited to GuruFocus in plain text.
