Why the TSX Rose as Oil Fell 7%: Gold Came Back From a One-Year Low
The S&P/TSX Composite rose 181.06 points, or 0.51%, to 35,801.09 on Monday, in a session where the front-month WTI contract settled 7.24% lower. Energy cost the composite 58.9 basis points, each a hundredth of a percentage point, and the other ten sectors more than covered it.
Monday followed a bad Friday, when the composite closed 1.74% lower at 35,620.03 on a chip selloff and gold’s worst close in a year, as we wrote then. Monday’s 181.06 points recovers 28.8% of that 628.97-point fall. Wall Street went the other way: the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq 1.07% to 25,164.32.
| Sector | Weight % | Return % | Contribution, bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Materials | 15.74 | +2.33 | +36.6 |
| Financials | 35.06 | +1.03 | +36.3 |
| Industrials | 10.27 | +2.45 | +25.2 |
| Consumer discretionary | 3.07 | +2.13 | +6.6 |
| Consumer staples | 3.17 | +1.26 | +4.0 |
| Utilities | 3.38 | +1.11 | +3.8 |
| Real estate | 1.21 | +2.60 | +3.2 |
| Communication | 1.48 | +1.88 | +2.8 |
| Health care | 0.31 | +0.90 | +0.3 |
| Information technology | 8.67 | -1.01 | -8.8 |
| Energy | 17.44 | -3.38 | -58.9 |
S&P/TSX Composite sectors, November 2, 2026. The weights sum to 99.80% of the index and the eleven contributions to +50.85 basis points, against the printed +0.51%. Our calculation from the holdings of the iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF as of October 30, 2026.
No large energy name fell as far as the barrel
The December WTI contract came in at US$96.54, down 7.24% from Friday’s US$104.07 (NYMEX WTI, December contract, settlement window 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET, our calculation from Yahoo Finance trade data). CNBC tied the fall to a third consecutive day of talks between Iran and Qatar aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran.
The energy block fell 3.38%, less than half the move in the barrel, and the reason is visible name by name. None of the ten largest energy weights, 15.09% of the index between them, fell as far as crude did. Whitecap came closest at 6.52%, then Cenovus at 6.18% and Suncor at 5.05%, while Canadian Natural, the heaviest energy name at 3.19%, fell 4.21% and cost 13.4 basis points. Enbridge, second at 3.03%, fell 0.42%, with TC Energy down 1.23% and Pembina 1.69%. Seven names did beat crude lower, led by Baytex at 11.04% and Strathcona at 10.33%, but every one is under 0.15% of the index, so barely any of it reached the composite.
The losses widened into the close. Our reading of the WTI curve after the Hormuz talks, written mid-morning, follows the drop along the delivery curve.
Gold’s rebound carried the miners
Gold’s December contract rose 1.49% to US$3,956.80. Spot gold had fallen 3.6% on Friday to its lowest level since October 2025, a drop CNBC reported as a selloff in technology and AI-linked stocks, with analysts in that report attributing the safe-haven selling to margin calls. By Monday afternoon spot was back up 1.8% at US$3,943.62, with the same report quoting Peter Grant of Zaner Metals: “Weaker oil prices have provided some relief … in terms of reducing inflation concerns.”
Materials led every sector on contribution. Agnico Eagle rose 3.30% to C$238.41 for 7.6 basis points, Barrick 2.83% for 4.8 and Wheaton Precious Metals 2.72% for 3.9, three names worth 16.3 basis points of a 50.9 basis point day. Our ranking of Canadian gold stocks scores those three against Franco-Nevada, Kinross, Alamos and B2Gold on margin rather than ounces.
Brookfield and the banks did the rest
Brookfield Corporation was the index’s largest positive contributor, up 5.61% for 13.0 basis points, ahead of Royal Bank’s 6.2. The banks themselves barely moved: Royal Bank, the index’s largest holding at 7.76%, rose 0.80%, TD 0.55%, Scotiabank 0.43% and CIBC 0.40%, and the best of the Big Six was National Bank at 1.72%. Financials are 35.06% of the composite, so a 1.03% sector return is worth 36.3 basis points on weight alone. Industrials managed 2.45% on 10.27% of the index, Canadian National up 2.63% for 4.9 basis points and Canadian Pacific Kansas City 2.05% for 4.5.
Toronto’s technology weight is a fraction of Wall Street’s
Information technology is 8.67% of the composite against 37.41% of the S&P 500, and the Canadian block, nine names, fell 1.01% for a net 8.8 basis points. Carried at the American weight, that same 1.01% decline would have cost 37.9 basis points, three quarters of the day’s gain. Shopify, the largest technology weight at 5.25%, slipped 1.24% and cost 6.5 basis points, with Celestica down 5.65% for another 5.2. Constellation Software and CGI, both higher, offset part of it. AMD fell 7.52% before its third-quarter report, with Benzinga tying the chip selloff to Intel’s weaker fourth-quarter revenue outlook and a longer PC slowdown, reported October 30.
What December is priced at, in Canada and the US
The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.50% after the October 28 hike from 2.25%, and one-month CORRA futures put the December 9 decision close to even, pricing a further hike at 49% of a 25 basis point move. Traders put roughly 75% odds on a December increase from the Federal Reserve, down from 80% a week earlier, on CME Group’s FedWatch Tool as reported by CNBC. The latest available benchmark Government of Canada yields are Friday October 30’s, the two-year at 3.28%, 78 basis points above the 2.50% overnight rate, and the ten-year at 3.78%.
What comes next
Shopify, Fortis and Thomson Reuters report before Tuesday’s open on November 3, Suncor and Intact Financial after the close, and Tuesday is the US midterm elections. Statistics Canada publishes September merchandise trade on Wednesday November 4.
Data as of the close, Monday November 2, 2026.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Index levels, sector returns and single-stock closes are the November 2, 2026 Toronto and New York closes. Sector and single-name contributions in basis points are our own calculation from S&P/TSX Composite index weights, using the iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF holdings as of October 30, 2026, which cover 99.80% of index weight. The crude price is the NYMEX WTI December contract’s settlement window, the volume-weighted price of trades from 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET, rebuilt from one-minute trade data. The gold figure is the December gold futures contract; the one-year low referenced is spot gold’s October 30 close, as reported by CNBC. Friday’s composite close and its 1.74% fall are our own figures from the October 30 session. The Bank of Canada policy rate and the benchmark Government of Canada bond yields come from the Bank of Canada; the bond yield series is published with a one day lag, so the latest available reading is dated October 30. Market pricing for the December 9 Bank of Canada decision is derived from one-month CORRA futures settlements on the Montreal Exchange. The December Federal Reserve probability is CME Group’s FedWatch Tool as reported by CNBC. Earnings dates and the Statistics Canada release date are from our own market calendar.
