Altcoins Are Beating Bitcoin Again. Only 5 of the Last 22 Times Lasted 90 Days
Eight of the twelve largest non-Bitcoin coins we track have beaten Bitcoin over the trailing 90 days, which is the reading people reach for when they say altcoin season has started. Data as of completed daily closes on 2026-09-24. We went back and measured every previous time that reading appeared since December 2020. There have been 22 with a full 180 days of history behind them, and the alt lead was still intact at 90 days in five of them.
Where the reading stands
The breadth reading closed at 66.7%, eight of twelve, on 2026-09-24. That was the third consecutive day at that level, after 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-23.
Behind it is a strong quarter for almost everything. Bitcoin returned +40.6% over the 90 days from 2026-06-26 to 2026-09-24, moving from $60,016.43 USD to $84,379.06 USD on daily closes. The equal-weight basket of twelve returned +49.0% over the same window.
The eight that cleared Bitcoin’s +40.6%: Chainlink +79.9%, Litecoin +71.8%, Bitcoin Cash +71.7%, Ethereum +70.4%, Cardano +67.3%, Solana +62.9%, Avalanche +54.8% and XRP +46.4%. The four that did not: Polkadot +35.8%, Dogecoin +26.5%, Stellar +22.0% and TRON +6.3%.
Ethereum sitting inside the leading group is itself a change of state. Through August it was the coin that would not keep up, which we covered at the time in Ethereum’s stall against Bitcoin. Over the last quarter its +70.4% has sat well clear of Bitcoin’s +40.6% instead.
The shorter windows point the same way. Over the seven days to 2026-09-24, Bitcoin returned +10.4% against the basket’s +17.9%, led by Bitcoin Cash +44.4%, Avalanche +33.9% and Litecoin +33.3%, with TRON last at +1.6%. Over 30 days, Bitcoin returned +7.4% against the basket’s +18.7%.
What makes the reading notable is how seldom it happens. Ninety days ago, on 2026-06-26, breadth sat at 16.7%, which is also the trailing twelve-month median. The last time the reading was this high before September 2026 was 2025-10-14. Across the 2,104 days in the sample, only 10.9% have been at 66.7% or above.
Live, and this is a live quote rather than a close: at 06:05 ET this morning Bitcoin traded at $84,406.07 USD, up 0.03% on 24 hours, or $119,524.28 CAD. Ethereum traded at $2,695.76 USD, up 0.31%, or $3,823.75 CAD.
How much of the altcoin basket is beating Bitcoin. Share of the twelve coins whose trailing 90-day return exceeds Bitcoin’s. Daily closes from Yahoo Finance, September 2020 to September 24, 2026, and our arithmetic.
How the study was built
The basket is the twelve largest non-Bitcoin coins with continuous daily history back to September 2020: Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, Chainlink, Polkadot, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, TRON and Stellar. Prices are daily closes in USD from Yahoo Finance, running 2020-09-01 to 2026-09-24. For every day we count how many of the twelve beat Bitcoin’s return over the trailing 90 days, and that share is the breadth reading. A signal is the first day of a contiguous stretch at eight of twelve or higher, with stretches more than three days apart counted separately. That produces 24 signals, 22 of which have a full 180 days of subsequent history. Forward alt basket returns are the equal-weight geometric average of the twelve.
What followed the last 22 signals
The measure that matters is the gap: what the alt basket returned minus what Bitcoin returned, in percentage points, starting from the first day of each signal. The final column is the unconditional base rate, meaning the share of days on which alts went on to beat Bitcoin over the same horizon if you simply picked a starting day at random from the sample.
| Horizon | Alts beat Bitcoin | Median gap (pts) | Best | Worst | Base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 9 of 22 (41%) | -1.8 | +70.0 | -18.8 | 36% |
| 60 days | 6 of 22 (27%) | -4.8 | +68.2 | -25.6 | 32% |
| 90 days | 5 of 22 (23%) | -13.9 | +161.9 | -35.7 | 32% |
| 180 days | 4 of 22 (18%) | -18.2 | +90.9 | -50.3 | 30% |
Read across the rows and the pattern is uncomfortable for the label. At 30 days the signal is marginally better than the base rate, 41% against 36%. From 60 days out it is worse than a random day, and by 180 days it is 18% against 30%. The median outcome at every horizon is a loss of ground, widening from -1.8 points at 30 days to -18.2 points at 180.
What the alt basket did against Bitcoin over the next 180 days. Basket return minus Bitcoin return from the first day of each past signal. Daily closes from Yahoo Finance, September 2020 to September 24, 2026, and our arithmetic.
One thing the table does not say is that this is a bearish signal for crypto generally. Bitcoin’s own forward returns after those 22 signals were soft in the near term and fine later: a median of -3.0% at 30 days with nine of 22 positive, -5.0% at 90 days with nine of 22 positive, then +14.1% at 180 days with 14 of 22 positive, a best of +143.6% and a worst of -51.7%. The history argues against the alt lead persisting. It does not argue against holding the asset class.
The case for this one being different is real, and it is thin
Three of the four positive 180-day outcomes came from a single stretch in early 2021: signals starting 2021-01-28 (+71.7 points), 2021-02-01 (+70.4) and 2021-03-23 (+90.9). The fourth was 2024-07-13 at +22.0 points. Every other completed signal was negative at 180 days.
That cluster is the bull case, and it deserves weight rather than dismissal. If a genuine cycle rotation is beginning, the first weeks of one look exactly like this, and the 2021 episode shows the payoff when the lead does hold. Twenty-two observations is also a small sample, and most of them sit inside the 2022 and 2025 bear markets. A base rate assembled mostly from falling markets may simply not describe 2026.
The honest summary is that the distribution is wide in both directions and the centre of it is negative for alts relative to Bitcoin. That is a statement about odds, not about any individual coin.
What a Canadian holder actually saw
Over the same 90 days in Canadian dollars, the listed wrappers tracked the USD tape closely. Purpose’s unhedged Bitcoin class, BTCC.B, returned +40.1% against spot Bitcoin’s +40.6% in USD; the fund’s own Purpose Bitcoin ETF page sets out the share classes. Purpose’s unhedged Ethereum class, ETHH.B, returned +70.1% against spot Ethereum’s +70.4%. The 3iQ Solana Staking ETF, SOLQ, returned +61.2% against spot Solana’s +62.9%, and because it stakes, it is not a pure spot proxy. The 3iQ XRP ETF, XRPQ, returned +44.9% against spot XRP’s +46.4%.
The Canadian dollar was close to flat across the window, with CADUSD moving from 0.7042 to 0.7090, up 0.7%. The ordering a Canadian holder saw in CAD was therefore the same ordering as the USD tape this quarter. Exposure here does not have to come through coins or coin funds either, and our Canadian crypto stocks page ranks the TSX-listed names on how much Bitcoin sits behind each share.
Anyone tempted to act on breadth by rotating between coins should price the friction first. In Canada, every crypto-to-crypto swap is a disposition, and the mechanics are set out in the CRA guide for crypto-asset users. A strategy with a 23% hit rate at 90 days carries a tax bill whether or not it works.
What would change this read
Two things would. The first is duration: the 2021 stretch that produced the large positive outcomes held above eight of twelve for 105 days, while the current one is three days old. Breadth holding at this level for weeks rather than days would be a different observation from the one measured here. The second is composition. If the laggards close the gap, breadth is broadening. If the existing leaders simply extend, the reading can stay high on a narrowing base.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Coin prices are daily closes in US dollars from Yahoo Finance, September 1, 2020 to September 24, 2026, and the Canadian ETF returns are Toronto Stock Exchange closes for BTCC.B, ETHH.B, SOLQ and XRPQ over the same 90-day window, also from Yahoo Finance. The breadth reading, the 22 signals, the forward returns at 30, 60, 90 and 180 days, the unconditional base rates and both charts are computed by us from those closes. Study figures use completed daily closes through September 24, 2026. The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices quoted for this morning are live snapshots taken at 06:05 ET on September 25, 2026, not closes. Purpose’s share classes are from the fund’s own page.
