BlackBerry Q2 Earnings: Every One of the Last 8 Reports Moved the Stock 8% or More
BlackBerry earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2027 arrive Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 8:00 a.m. ET, before the open, with a conference call to follow. The quarter covers the three months ended August 31, 2026, per the company’s own scheduling advisory. BlackBerry’s fiscal year ends the last day of February, so a quarter ending in August is the second.
One fact frames the week. Across the last eight reports, the smallest move in the next session was 8.22% in absolute terms. Six were up, two down, none quiet. BlackBerry stock rose 7% on Monday ahead of this one, on no company news at all. Thursday supplies numbers instead.
What the Street expects
Analyst consensus, the Street’s number and not the company’s, puts Q2 adjusted EPS at $0.04 USD, from six analysts in a $0.03 to $0.05 range, on revenue of $145.5 million USD, from five analysts in a $141.6 million to $152.0 million range. The year-ago quarter delivered $0.04 on $129.6 million USD, so that implies 12.3% revenue growth.
It also implies a smaller quarter than the last one. Consensus revenue sits 4.8% below the $152.9 million USD BlackBerry reported in Q1 fiscal 2027, a step down the company asked for itself in June when it guided Q2 to a band of $137 million to $148 million USD. Full-year consensus from seven analysts is $614.5 million USD of revenue and $0.189 adjusted EPS, the revenue figure 76% of the way up the company’s own $594 million to $621 million band. Fiscal 2028 consensus EPS is $0.229.
Those estimates have drifted higher over three months.
| Adjusted EPS estimate | 90 days ago | today | change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2027 | $0.0375 | $0.040 | +6.7% |
| FY2027 | $0.175 | $0.189 | +7.8% |
| FY2028 | $0.198 | $0.229 | +15.2% |
Every line moved up, then stopped. The Q2 number was $0.04 sixty days ago, thirty days ago and seven days ago. One revision, made shortly after the June 25 first-quarter report, and nothing since. A step, not momentum.
The seven analysts carry a consensus rating of hold and a median target of $9.50 USD, 11.4% above Monday’s $8.53 USD close on the NYSE. The spread is the story: the low target of $5.20 is 39.0% below that close, the high of $13.00 is 52.4% above. Seven people looking at one company, disagreeing by a factor of two and a half.
The beat and miss record
Consensus exists for six of the last eight reports. April 2025 and June 2025 carry no estimate, so they are out of the count and out of the chart. Of the six rated: five beats and one miss.
Adjusted EPS versus consensus, last six rated quarters. Consensus and prices: Yahoo Finance.
| Reported | Consensus adj. EPS | Actual adj. EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2024 | -$0.03 | -$0.03 | -6.0% (miss) |
| Dec 19, 2024 | -$0.01 | $0.02 | +295.9% |
| Sep 25, 2025 | $0.01 | $0.04 | +185.7% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | $0.04 | $0.05 | +36.4% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | $0.04 | $0.06 | +38.5% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | $0.03 | $0.04 | +50.0% |
Two qualifications belong with that record. The single miss, June 2024, was a miss on a loss of roughly three cents, by a fraction of a cent: rounding scale, not a blow-up.
And the enormous 2024 and 2025 surprise percentages are arithmetic rather than performance. When the estimate is one or two cents, a one-cent difference prints as a triple-digit surprise. The +100.1% average across the six rated quarters measures the size of that denominator, not how far BlackBerry out-earns expectations. The last three quarters, off a larger base, ran +36%, +39% and +50%.
What the stock did afterwards
Price change after each of the last eight reports, from the last close before the release, measured on the New York listing in US dollars. Consensus and prices: Yahoo Finance.
| Reported | Next session | 30 days later | 90 days later |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2024 | +10.86% | +12.22% | +10.86% |
| Dec 19, 2024 | +23.83% | +36.58% | +50.00% |
| Apr 2, 2025 | -9.12% | -6.43% | +16.35% |
| Jun 24, 2025 | +12.47% | -8.55% | +1.62% |
| Sep 25, 2025 | +8.90% | +12.41% | -6.56% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | -12.93% | -11.55% | -23.79% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | +8.22% | +76.20% | +215.01% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | +19.95% | -2.32% | not yet 90 days |
The average next-session move is +7.77%, median +9.88%, positive in six of eight. Thirty days out, a +13.57% average against a +4.95% median, positive in four. Ninety days out, a +37.64% average against a +10.86% median, positive in five of the seven quarters old enough to measure. All history, none of it a forecast.
One note on basis, because it changes the numbers. Every percentage in that table is the New York listing in US dollars. Monday’s run-up piece measured the Toronto listing in Canadian dollars and so reports a different figure for each of the four quarters the two tables share. Both are correct on their own line, and the gap between them is the currency leg covered at the end of this piece.
Three warnings about those averages. The 90-day figure is one outlier wearing a statistic’s clothes: the +215.01% that followed April 9, 2026, the quarter the stock quadrupled off its March low. The median of +10.86% is the honest centre of that column.
The tidy-looking “average on a miss” of +10.86% is a single quarter, June 2024. One data point is not a pattern.
And a beat has not been enough on its own. December 18, 2025 beat consensus by 36.4%, then the stock fell 12.93% in the next session and 23.79% over the following 90 days. The reaction is to the guidance and to the expectations already sitting in the price, not to the EPS line by itself. Our guide to what moves a stock price works through the rest of that mechanism.
A raise, and a step down, ten weeks apart
BlackBerry raised its fiscal 2027 outlook at the June quarter, ten weeks after first issuing it.
| FY2027 guidance (USD) | at Apr 9, 2026 | at Jun 25, 2026 | direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $584M to $611M | $594M to $621M | raised |
| QNX revenue | $290M to $307M | $295M to $312M | raised |
| Secure Communications | $270M to $280M | $270M to $280M | unchanged |
| Total adjusted EBITDA | $110M to $130M | $119M to $139M | raised |
| QNX segment adj. EBITDA | $69M to $81M | $74M to $86M | raised |
| Non-GAAP basic EPS | $0.15 to $0.19 | $0.16 to $0.20 | raised |
| Operating cash flow | approx. $100M | approx. $100M | unchanged |
Sources: the Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended February 28, 2026, pp.41-48, and the Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release.
Every line that moved is QNX or total, and Secure Communications sat untouched at both dates. In the same release that raised the year, management guided the next quarter to revenue below the quarter it had just delivered. Both are the company’s own statements, and Thursday is where they reconcile. One caveat the company states itself: it does not reconcile guided adjusted EBITDA or guided non-GAAP EPS to GAAP, because it “is unable to predict with reasonable certainty, among other things, restructuring charges and impairment charges.”
Four years of segments, and the handover inside them
Everything below is continuing operations, excluding Cylance, sold to Arctic Wolf on February 3, 2025 and reported as a discontinued operation. The company recast fiscal 2023 through 2025 onto that basis, so the four years compare directly.
QNX segment revenue by fiscal year, continuing operations. Source: BlackBerry’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended February 28, 2026, and the Form 10-K for the year ended February 28, 2025.
| Segment revenue (USD millions) | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QNX | 205.7 | 215.4 | 236.0 | 268.0 |
| Secure Communications | 288.2 | 283.8 | 272.6 | 258.9 |
| Licensing | 32.4 | 259.9 | 26.3 | 22.2 |
| Total as reported | 526.3 | 759.1 (includes a $217.7M one-time patent sale) | 534.9 | 549.1 |
That total line is annotated because it is a trap. Fiscal 2024 Licensing revenue contains $217.7 million from one sale of the Malikie non-core patent portfolio, which the fiscal 2026 10-K calls “a one time-event.” Read raw, the totals look like a 30% collapse followed by a stall. Strip the patent sale and the same four years run $526.3M, $541.4M, $534.9M and $549.1M: flat, then growing.
The segment rows need no such surgery. QNX has compounded at 9.2% a year since fiscal 2023, from $205.7 million to $268.0 million, with segment adjusted EBITDA up from $33.5 million in fiscal 2024 to $71.0 million in fiscal 2026. Secure Communications has fallen in every year since, from $288.2 million to $258.9 million, three consecutive declines. In fiscal 2023 it was the larger business by 40%. By fiscal 2026 QNX had passed it. BlackBerry is now an embedded automotive software company with a secure-messaging business attached, and this table is where the handover is visible.
What to watch on Thursday
| Line | Q2 FY2027 company guidance | Q1 FY2027 actual |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $137M to $148M | $152.9M |
| QNX revenue | $70M to $75M | $72.3M |
| Secure Communications | $57M to $63M | $73.6M |
| Non-GAAP basic EPS | $0.03 to $0.04 | $0.04 |
| Total adjusted EBITDA | $20M to $30M | $36.3M |
Secure Communications carries the most information. It grew 24% year over year in Q1 to $73.6 million, with segment adjusted EBITDA up 110% to $20.2 million, yet the company called its $220 million of annual recurring revenue “stable” and disclosed a dollar-based net retention rate of 92%. Below 100% means the existing customer base shrank in value over the year. Against three consecutive years of segment decline and a Q2 guide well under the Q1 actual, it is the line to read first.
The rest of that quarter for context: revenue of $152.9 million, up 26%, GAAP net income of $8.5 million the company called “positive for the fifth consecutive quarter”, adjusted EBITDA of $36.3 million, and cash and investments of $422.9 million.
BlackBerry also repurchased 2.6 million shares for $10.0 million, taking weighted average basic shares from 596.3 million to 586.7 million year over year. Revenue up 26% on a falling share count is growth per share rather than growth alone, and that distinction is the centre of how we rank Canadian growth stocks.
Not due Thursday: the QNX royalty backlog, which BlackBerry calculates annually. The most recent disclosed figure is $950 million at February 28, 2026.
The currency leg
BlackBerry reports in US dollars under US GAAP while its shares trade in Canadian dollars on the TSX and US dollars on the NYSE. On Monday the same company closed at $11.95 CAD in Toronto and $8.53 USD in New York.
Every revenue, EPS and guidance figure above is US dollars. The TSX quote is not. Thursday’s move in the Toronto line will be the move in the business plus whatever the Canadian dollar does against the US dollar. Across one session that second part is usually small. Across a holding period it is not.
What it means for holders
The history is clear and limited. BlackBerry has moved at least 8.22% on the session after each of its last eight reports, so the market has repriced this company hard on every set of results for two years. Direction is another matter entirely: six of eight rose, two fell, and December 2025 met a 36% beat with a 12.9% fall.
The genuine setup is management’s own pair of statements. A raised full-year guide on QNX and on total, Secure Communications left alone, and this quarter guided below the last, with consensus sitting near the top of that lower band. The segment table says which answer compounds: QNX at 9.2% a year is the engine now, while Secure Communications, still nearly as large, has shrunk in each of the last three fiscal years and retains 92 cents of each existing revenue dollar. Thursday is the first read on both since the raise.
Data as of the close of Monday, September 21, 2026. Analyst consensus, price targets and share prices from Yahoo Finance. Company financials, segment results and guidance from BlackBerry’s SEC-filed earnings release and annual reports.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Analyst consensus, price targets, share prices and post-report price reactions from Yahoo Finance, session of Monday September 21, 2026. Company financials, segment results and guidance from BlackBerry’s Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K filed June 25, 2026) and its Forms 10-K for the fiscal years ended February 28, 2026 and February 28, 2025.
