Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
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Statistics Canada will release July inflation data on Monday, August 17 at 8:30am ET, giving Canadian investors their first look at how price pressures evolved through the summer months. With the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate at 2.25% and markets watching for any shift in the inflation trajectory, Monday’s Canada CPI release — the key August 2026 data point for Canadian markets — carries significant weight for portfolio positioning.
Where Inflation Stands
June’s Consumer Price Index showed encouraging signs of cooling. The headline CPI came in at 2.8% year-over-year, down from 3.2% in May, according to data released by Statistics Canada on July 20. That marked a meaningful step toward the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, though price pressures remained elevated by historical standards.
Looking beneath the headline figure, CPI ex-gasoline held steady at 2.2% in June. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures told a mixed story: the trim measure registered 1.8% year-over-year, median came in at 1.9%, and the common measure stood at 2.6%. These core readings give policymakers a more stable view of underlying inflation trends by filtering out the most volatile price movements.
This Week’s US Inflation Context
American inflation data released this week provided useful context for what Canadian investors might expect on Monday. US CPI for July came in at 3.4% year-over-year on Wednesday, down from 3.5% the prior month, with core CPI at 2.5% marking the slowest pace since 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
On Thursday, US Producer Price Index data showed flat month-over-month growth versus the 0.2% increase economists expected, with the year-over-year figure at 4.7% against expectations of 4.9%. The soft reading supported financials and other credit-sensitive shares, and the TSX notched a fourth consecutive record close on Thursday, gaining 0.26% (data as of August 13, 2026 market close).
What Monday’s Data Means for Canadian Investors
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on July 15, maintaining its wait-and-see approach as officials monitor incoming data. The next scheduled rate decision isn’t until September 2, giving policymakers time to assess multiple data points including Monday’s CPI release.
For investors, the inflation trajectory matters because it influences the Bank of Canada’s policy stance, which in turn affects borrowing costs, currency movements, and the relative attractiveness of different asset classes. Lower inflation readings generally support risk assets by reducing pressure for tighter monetary policy, while persistently high inflation can prompt a more restrictive stance from central banks.
Rate-sensitive sectors of the Canadian market — including the major banks that dominate the TSX, dividend-focused stocks favored in TFSA and RRSP accounts, and real estate investment trusts — often see increased investor interest when inflation shows signs of moderating. That said, each company’s performance depends on its own business fundamentals, not just macro trends.
Key Metrics to Watch on Monday
When Statistics Canada releases the July CPI report at 8:30am ET on Monday, investors should focus on several key data points. The headline year-over-year figure will show whether the June cooling trend continued or reversed. Month-over-month growth will indicate whether prices rose, fell, or held steady in July specifically.
The CPI ex-gasoline measure strips out volatile energy prices to show underlying consumer price trends. The Bank of Canada’s three core measures — trim, median, and common — will signal whether the downward trend in these indicators continued. Finally, Statistics Canada’s commentary on which components drove the numbers will help investors understand the composition of price changes.
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If you’re looking for more context on how inflation trends have evolved, review our coverage of Canada’s June inflation report and this week’s US CPI release and TSX record.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data as of August 13, 2026.
Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.