Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He graduated with a degree in Business Administration, has over a decade of writing experience, and grew his personal portfolio 153% from 2020 to 2024.
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Nutrien Ltd. (TSX/NYSE: NTR) reports its second-quarter 2026 results Wednesday, August 5, after market close. The June quarter coincides with the North American spring planting season and — as the consensus numbers below show — carries the largest revenue weight of Nutrien’s year.
The world-scale potash, nitrogen, and phosphate producer enters the quarter with momentum from a strong Q1 and full-year guidance intact — but faces a Street that has tempered expectations slightly heading into the print.
What the Street Expects
Analysts are looking for adjusted earnings per share of US$2.76 for the second quarter, up 4.2% year over year, on revenue of US$10.84 billion, a 3.9% increase, according to Zacks consensus estimates compiled as of July 29, 2026. All Nutrien figures are reported in US dollars.
To put that US$10.84 billion consensus figure in context: Nutrien reported actual sales of US$6,046 million in the first quarter, highlighting how the June quarter carries the largest revenue weight of the calendar year for the company.
The consensus estimate has been revised 0.18% higher over the last 30 days, a modest uptick. Nutrien carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) and an Earnings ESP of −0.79%, meaning the most recent analyst estimates sit slightly below the broader consensus number.
That said, Nutrien has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with the most recent surprise coming in at +6.25%.
What Q1 Showed
Nutrien delivered a sharp improvement in its first-quarter 2026 results, reported May 6. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of US$0.51 compared to US$0.11 in the prior-year period, with adjusted EBITDA climbing to US$1,105 million from US$852 million and sales rising to US$6,046 million from US$5,100 million.
The standout figure: record potash sales volumes of 3,510 thousand tonnes.
CEO Ken Seitz noted the company “delivered record potash sales volumes” and positioned its “supply chain to reliably supply customers amid tightening global fundamentals.”
By segment, adjusted EBITDA performance showed strength across the board. Potash delivered US$578 million, up 30% year over year, while maintaining controllable cash cost below US$60 per tonne. Nitrogen contributed US$482 million, up 19%, with ammonia operating rates at 92%. Retail jumped 135% to US$108 million. Phosphate came in at US$57 million, down 7%.
Nutrien reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance in that release: potash sales volumes of 14.1 to 14.8 million tonnes, nitrogen sales volumes of 9.2 to 9.7 million tonnes, retail adjusted EBITDA of US$1.75 to US$1.95 billion, and capital expenditures of US$2.0 to US$2.1 billion.
The company also returned US$409 million to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and share repurchases, including a quarterly dividend of US$0.55 per share.
What to Watch Wednesday
We’ll be watching several key metrics when the company reports after the bell:
Potash volumes and pricing. Can Nutrien sustain the record pace set in Q1? Full-year guidance calls for 14.1 to 14.8 million tonnes of potash — any commentary on second-half demand will be critical.
Nitrogen operating rates and margins. The 92% ammonia operating rate in Q1 was solid; investors will want to see that efficiency hold or improve as energy costs and global supply dynamics shift.
Retail performance. The June quarter captures the bulk of North American spring selling season. Retail EBITDA guidance for the full year implies a wide range — US$1.75 to US$1.95 billion — and Q2 should clarify where the year is trending.
Capital allocation. With US$409 million returned in Q1, any update on the pace of buybacks and dividend stability will matter for income-focused investors.
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The Balanced View
There are reasons for optimism. Nutrien is executing operationally, reaffirmed guidance, and has beaten estimates recently. Potash fundamentals appear supportive based on management’s comments about tightening supply.
There are also reasons for caution. The −0.79% Earnings ESP shows the most recent analyst estimates sitting slightly below consensus. The Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) reflects a neutral stance from analysts. And while the company has beaten recently, no earnings beat is ever certain.
What It Means for Canadian Investors
Nutrien is a TSX-listed company with significant operations in Canada, but it reports in US dollars. For Canadian investors holding the stock in registered accounts like RRSPs, the dividend income (currently US$0.55 per quarter) and any currency translation effects matter.
The company fits naturally into Canadian dividend portfolios as a resource-sector income name, and is accessible through most major Canadian investing apps and discount brokers.
Data as of August 4, 2026. Consensus estimates are from Zacks. First-quarter figures are from Nutrien’s May 6, 2026 earnings release.
We’ll have full coverage of Nutrien’s Q2 results and management commentary in our Best Canadian Stocks coverage after the company reports Wednesday evening.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data as of August 4, 2026.
Written By
Nick Raffoul
Nick Raffoul is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Best Canadian Stocks. He holds a degree in Business Administration and has over a decade of writing experience. Nick began investing just before the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, growing his personal portfolio 153% by 2024. In 2022, he founded Best Canadian Stocks to make data-driven investing accessible to all Canadians. His goal is to help all of his readers achieve financial freedom, maximize their spending power, and reach their financial goals. Whether you're maximizing your TFSA, building an RRSP to save for retirement, or looking to buy your first stock, Nick has your back. His work covers Canadian equities, dividend investing, tax-advantaged accounts, and personal finance.
