Tesla Stock Up 4.2%: Why TSLA Rose on a Q3 Delivery Beat
Tesla stock closed at $370.59 USD on Friday, up 4.23%, after its Q3 production and deliveries release put third-quarter deliveries at 486,532, roughly 25,400 above the consensus near 461,100 that CNBC reported. That is a beat against expectations rather than growth: CNBC put deliveries up about 1.3% from the second quarter and down about 2% year over year.
What the move was worth in Canadian dollars
CAD/USD closed at 0.7018, down 0.19%, so the day landed differently in a Canadian account. On our arithmetic of the close and the currency move, an unhedged Canadian holder of the US-listed shares earned about 4.43% in Canadian dollars, a hedged holder the 4.23% and none of the currency, which is the subject of Tesla Stock in Canada: Buying TSLA or the CAD-Hedged CDR. Tesla is still down about 17.6% in 2026, on our arithmetic of Yahoo closing prices.
The session
The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,502.65, up 0.99%, its best session since September 17 and the end of four straight declines. The S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72 and the NASDAQ 1.19% to 27,190.86.
The jobs report, and the revisions under it
The macro driver was the US Employment Situation for September: “both nonfarm payroll employment (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in September,” the BLS reported.
The revisions matter more. The BLS cut the change in July payrolls by 31,000, to -10,000 from +21,000, and August by 29,000, to +133,000, removing 60,000 jobs between them and making July a month in which the US economy lost jobs. The revised three-month average is near 51,000 on our arithmetic.
The curve split: bills eased, everything behind them sold
The Treasury par yield curve shows where that dovish reading was priced.
| Close of business | 1 Mo | 2 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr | 2 Yr | 5 Yr | 10 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 1 | 4.06% | 4.13% | 4.27% | 4.44% | 4.78% | 5.01% | 5.24% | 5.61% |
| Fri Oct 2 | 4.04% | 4.11% | 4.27% | 4.46% | 4.83% | 5.06% | 5.28% | 5.63% |
| Change | -2 bp | -2 bp | flat | +2 bp | +5 bp | +5 bp | +4 bp | +2 bp |
The bills eased, the part of the curve closest to the next few Fed meetings, while everything from the one-year out rose. So the dovish read was priced at the very front and sold behind it, leaving the 10-year and the 30-year a basis point off their 2026 closing highs of 5.29% and 5.64%, set September 30.
Canada’s 10-year is its October 1 observation, a day behind Treasury. Sources: US Treasury daily par yield curve, and Bank of Canada Valet benchmark bond yields.
The gap is the Canadian point: the US 10-year is up 109 basis points this year against 47 in Canada, so Canadian long rates have moved about half as far.
On our reading of Yahoo’s 10-year yield index, not a Treasury close, the yield bottomed at 5.157% at 8:32 a.m. ET, two minutes after the release, then rose for five hours to a 1:28 p.m. high of 5.298%. Equities were not following: on five-minute bars the TSX climbed from +0.59% at noon to +0.97% near the bell, while yields were making highs.
Materials led, the bond proxies fell
Weight times return on iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite holdings as of October 1, our own calculation:
| Sector | Weight | Return | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Materials | 18.14% | +1.79% | +0.325 pp |
| Financials | 34.31% | +0.59% | +0.204 pp |
| Energy | 16.37% | +0.94% | +0.154 pp |
| Industrials | 10.10% | +1.48% | +0.150 pp |
| Information Technology | 8.71% | +1.64% | +0.143 pp |
| Utilities | 3.27% | +0.72% | +0.024 pp |
| Consumer Discretionary | 2.91% | +0.38% | +0.011 pp |
| Real Estate | 1.21% | -0.37% | -0.004 pp |
| Consumer Staples | 3.00% | -0.15% | -0.005 pp |
| Health Care | 0.31% | -1.79% | -0.006 pp |
| Communication | 1.46% | -0.48% | -0.007 pp |
Four of eleven sectors fell, two of them classic Canadian bond proxies: real estate, and communication services, where BCE, Telus and Rogers sit, both lower on a day the long end closed near its 2026 high. The pattern stops there: utilities, also rate-sensitive, rose 0.72%, and health care is 0.31% of the index.
Gold slipped to $4,172.00 on the December contract while Canadian gold miners rose: Agnico Eagle +2.14%, Wheaton +2.58%, Franco-Nevada +1.58%. Energy added 0.94% while the barrel fell, NYMEX WTI’s November contract settling at $91.08, down 2.0% from Thursday’s $92.94, on the settlement-window price from Yahoo Finance trade data. Teck Resources (+5.34%) and the other names behind the materials gain are in our companion piece on Friday’s TSX session.
What is next
Canadian pricing points the other way: the Bank of Canada has held 2.25% since October 30, 2025, and one-month CORRA futures on the Montreal Exchange price 2.33% once the October 28 decision is past, roughly 30% of a quarter-point increase, and 2.50% by the December 9 decision. So the US market spent Friday pricing a Fed hike further away while the Canadian market prices its own central bank up. Whether it stays there depends on the September Labour Force Survey on Friday, October 9, the last big labour print before the decision, with September CPI Monday, October 19, August trade Tuesday, October 6, Aritzia earnings Thursday, October 8, and Tesla’s results Wednesday, October 21.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Index levels, sector returns, share prices, the exchange rate and the gold price are from Yahoo Finance market data for the October 2, 2026 session, and Canadian listings are in Canadian dollars. The eleven-sector table is our own calculation: each holding’s weight in the index multiplied by its price return on the session, summed by sector, using BlackRock’s published holdings for the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite ETF as of October 1, 2026, a capped-composite book and so a close proxy for the Composite rather than an identical one. It reproduces a modelled 0.988 percentage points against a printed 0.989% from 99.79% of index weight. Tesla’s third-quarter delivery figure is from the company’s own release, filed as exhibit 99.1 to a Form 8-K on October 2, 2026; the analyst consensus and the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons are as reported by CNBC. US payroll, unemployment and earnings figures and the revisions to July and August are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation for September 2026, released October 2, 2026. US Treasury yields are the Department of the Treasury’s own daily par yield curve at close of business. The intraday yield path is the 10-year Treasury yield index from Yahoo Finance one-minute data and the intraday index paths are five-minute bars, both read on October 2, 2026; neither is a close-of-business figure. Canadian benchmark bond yields in the chart are from the Bank of Canada’s Valet service and publish a day behind Treasury, so Canada’s reading is dated October 1, 2026. The crude price is NYMEX WTI for November delivery at the settlement window, the volume-weighted price of trades from 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET, which is the exchange’s own settlement method, rebuilt by us from one-minute trade data, and both ends of the comparison are the same delivery month. The Bank of Canada policy rate is from Valet series V39079. The priced path is solved from one-month CORRA futures settlements on the Montreal Exchange read on October 2, 2026, against spot CORRA from the Bank’s own series, taking the first contract month wholly after each decision and subtracting a CORRA-to-target basis measured over September 2026 rather than assumed.
