Barrick Q3 Earnings Preview: Analysts Cut Their Estimate 15% Into Monday’s Report
Barrick Mining Corporation (TSX: ABX, NYSE: B) releases its Q3 2026 earnings before markets open on Monday, November 9, 2026, at 6:00 a.m. ET, and the most striking number going in is not one of Barrick’s. The analyst consensus for the quarter’s adjusted earnings per share has fallen 14.6% over the last 90 days, from $0.932 USD to $0.796 USD. Barrick’s own full-year production and cost guidance has not moved over that stretch. Those are two different quantities rather than two sides of an argument: the company guides ounces, cost per ounce and capital spending, not earnings per share.
One note before any figure. Barrick reports in US dollars while its shares trade in Canadian dollars on the TSX, so every earnings, revenue, cost and per-ounce figure below is labelled USD and every share price and price target is labelled CAD, and nothing here divides one into the other. Production, cost and earnings figures are on Barrick’s attributable basis, which is the basis the company itself leads with. Revenue and operating cash flow are as Barrick consolidates them, and where the attributable cash flow figure matters it is named separately. Consensus figures and share prices throughout are from Yahoo Finance.
What the Street expects
Consensus for the third quarter is adjusted EPS of $0.796 USD from 15 analysts, within a range of $0.65 to $0.91 USD, and revenue of $5.13 billion USD from seven analysts, within a range of $5.01 billion to $5.23 billion. Against the year-ago quarter in the same series, $0.58 USD of adjusted EPS on $4.148 billion of revenue, those imply growth of 37.2% and 23.6%.
Set beside the quarter just gone, the same two numbers describe a sequentially softer one. Barrick consolidated revenue of $5,292 million USD in the second quarter (pages 3 and 6) and reported adjusted EPS of $0.82 USD, and the consensus for the third sits below both.
The basis is worth fixing before the actual prints. Barrick’s adjusted EPS is a basic-method figure by its own endnote f (Q2 2026 release, page 11), and last quarter it sat above the reported line: $0.82 USD adjusted against $0.73 USD reported. Pair the consensus with the wrong line and the comparison stops meaning anything.
Here is how the quarter’s estimate has travelled, in US dollars:
| Estimate as of | Q3 2026 adjusted EPS consensus (USD) |
|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.932 |
| 60 days ago | $0.860 |
| 30 days ago | $0.855 |
| 7 days ago | $0.802 |
| Now | $0.796 |
That is 14.6% below the 90-day-old figure, our arithmetic on Yahoo’s own trend series. The series does not slide evenly: it steps down at two of the four intervals and barely moves at the other two. The fourth quarter has been marked down slightly harder, from $1.032 USD ninety days ago to $0.873 now, a decline of 15.5% on the same arithmetic, on a smaller panel of ten analysts. The annual lines moved much less. Full-year 2026 consensus went from $3.762 to $3.586 USD over the same 90 days, down 4.7%, and 2027 from $4.400 to $4.219 USD, down about 4%, with that 2027 figure now carried by 21 analysts.
So the revision sits in the near term, two quarters cut by roughly 15% each against annual figures that moved 4% to 5%. It is a markdown of the next two prints rather than of the franchise.
What Barrick itself has told the market is measured in other units. Guidance, in its own words from the Q2 release, is that “Barrick is on track to meet 2026 production and cost guidance, with gold production guidance continuing to be 2.90–3.25 million ounces” (pages 1, 4 and 7). The company also reduced its 2026 attributable capital expenditure range: “2026 total attributable capital expenditure has been reduced to $3.8 billion–$4.2 billion, from $4.0 billion–$4.45 billion previously, primarily reflecting decreased spending at the Reko Diq project” (pages 1 and 4). Attributable capital expenditure is capitalised spending, and project capital is excluded from all-in sustaining costs by Barrick’s own footnote (page 6), so that reduction speaks to cash flow and project timing. Ounces, cost per ounce and capital spending can all hold exactly where the company put them while an earnings estimate moves, because earnings also carry the realized metal price, royalties, tax and other items.
The beat and miss record over eight quarters
On the Yahoo consensus series, Barrick has beaten in five of its last eight reported quarters and missed in three, with an average surprise of plus 7.62%.
| Report date | Consensus (USD) | Actual (USD) | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2024 | 0.32 | 0.30 | -5.2% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 0.41 | 0.46 | +11.2% |
| May 7, 2025 | 0.30 | 0.35 | +17.8% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | 0.46 | 0.47 | +1.8% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 0.61 | 0.58 | -5.3% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 0.88 | 1.04 | +18.5% |
| May 11, 2026 | 0.80 | 0.98 | +22.3% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 0.82 | 0.82 | -0.1% |
Barrick’s adjusted EPS against the analyst consensus estimate for each of the last eight reported quarters, in US dollars. Five beats, three misses. Consensus: Yahoo Finance.
The last row is the useful one for checking the basis. The $0.82 USD actual for the August 10, 2026 report is the same $0.82 USD adjusted EPS Barrick reported itself for that quarter (Q2 2026 release, pages 1, 3 and 6), so the series is being measured on the company’s adjusted basis rather than its reported one.
What the shares did after each of those reports
The surprise and the reaction have not tracked each other.
| Report date | Surprise | Next session | 30 days | 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2024 | -5.2% | -0.35% | -5.26% | -4.00% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | +11.2% | +6.35% | +11.19% | +4.11% |
| May 7, 2025 | +17.8% | +1.21% | +2.88% | +17.69% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | +1.8% | -2.36% | +27.73% | +52.61% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | -5.3% | +5.28% | +24.91% | +36.83% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | +18.5% | -8.53% | -4.48% | -12.95% |
| May 11, 2026 | +22.3% | +9.06% | -11.87% | -3.01% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -0.1% | -6.45% | +1.37% | n/a |
What ABX shares did after each of the last eight reports: next session, 30 days and 90 days. The August 2026 report has not yet reached 90 days. Consensus and prices: Yahoo Finance.
Across the eight, the average next-session move is plus 0.53% and four of the eight were positive. At 30 days the average is plus 5.81% and five of eight were positive. At 90 days the average is plus 13.04% and four of seven were positive, the August 2026 report not yet having reached 90 days. Split by outcome, the average next session is plus 1.15% after a beat and minus 0.51% after a miss.
The size of the surprise has not governed the response. The two largest beats in the series, plus 18.5% in February 2026 and plus 22.3% in May 2026, were followed by next-day moves of minus 8.5% and plus 9.1%. The miss in November 2025 was followed by plus 5.3%. That is a record of eight outcomes, not a forecast of the ninth, and nothing in it says what Monday will do.
For a closer read on how the market has handled gold results this reporting season, we covered Kinross falling 6% on its third quarter results on October 29.
What to watch in this report
Barrick’s CEO set out the second-half agenda in the Q2 release. Mark Hill, President and Chief Executive Officer, page 2:
“Our priorities for the second half of the year remain the same: continue to drive tangible improvements in our safety performance, improve operational consistency and deliver our full-year production and cost guidance, advance our growth projects on time and on budget, and launch the IPO of our extraordinary North American gold business by the end of the year.”
Two dated items sit inside this quarter.
The first is that IPO. Barrick’s own language is that it “continues to expect to complete the IPO by the end of 2026, subject to market and other conditions and necessary approvals” (pages 1 and 4), with Mark Hill named as chief executive of the new company upon separation. From Monday’s report date that leaves under two months of the year, and the conditions language is part of the claim: it is an expectation rather than a commitment.
The second is cash. On the Newmont agreement to expand the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, with both companies vending in their excluded properties early, Fourmile from Barrick and Mike and Fiberline from Newmont, Barrick wrote that “Newmont will pay Barrick a top-up payment of $1.95 billion cash within thirty days” (page 1). The same passage says the agreement resolves all outstanding disputes related to NGM, that Newmont has consented to Barrick’s IPO of its North American gold assets, and that the combination creates “a nearly 100-million-ounce gold complex in Nevada”. The Q2 release was dated August 10, 2026, so on the company’s own thirty-day statement that payment falls inside the September quarter. That is what the statement implies about timing, not something we have seen received.
Then there are the operating lines, each measurable against a figure Barrick has already published in its Q2 2026 results release.
Production against the range. Attributable gold production was 796,000 ounces in the second quarter, above the top of that quarter’s own 730,000 to 770,000 ounce guidance range (pages 1, 2 and 7), with 801 koz sold. Adding the first quarter’s 719 koz, the first half delivered 1,515 koz on the company’s own figures. Against full-year guidance of 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces, that leaves 1,385 to 1,735 koz for the second half, or roughly 690 to 870 koz a quarter if split evenly. Those second-half figures are our arithmetic on Barrick’s numbers.
Costs against the band. Gold all-in sustaining costs were $1,866 per ounce USD in the second quarter, up 11% year over year, with total cash costs of $1,426 and cost of sales of $1,993 (pages 1, 2, 7 and 9). Full-year cost guidance, verbatim: “Gold cost guidance for 2026—including COS of $1,870–$2,070 per ounce, TCC of $1,330–$1,470 per ounce, and AISC of $1,760–$1,950 per ounce—is based on a gold price assumption of $4,500 per ounce” (pages 4 and 7). First-half AISC was $1,790 per ounce on Barrick’s own H1 column (pages 7 and 9), which is inside that range and near its low end, so the band leaves room but not much of it at the bottom. Cost per ounce is the test that separates gold producers once the metal price is the same for all of them, which is why our ranking of Canadian gold stocks is built on margin rather than ounces.
The realized price against the assumption. Barrick realized $4,417 per ounce USD on gold in the second quarter, against $4,823 in the first as printed in the same company table (page 13) and $3,295 in the second quarter of 2025, a year-over-year increase the company prints as 34% (page 6). Across the first half the realized price averaged $4,613 per ounce against $3,099 in the first half of 2025 (pages 6 and 13). Full-year guidance rests on a $4,500 per ounce assumption, with copper at $5.50 per pound (page 4 and page 14, endnote 6). The quarterly print sits below that assumption while the half-year average sits above it, and the third quarter’s realized price is the next reading on that spread.
Attributable free cash flow. This is the line to watch against a quarter of that size. Consolidated revenue was $5,292 million USD against $3,681 million, which Barrick states as a 44% increase (pages 3 and 6). Adjusted net earnings were $1,363 million, up 70% on its own statement, and attributable net earnings $1,217 million against $811 million, up 50% (pages 1, 3 and 6). Attributable adjusted EBITDA was $2,545 million, up 51%, at a 60% margin (pages 3 and 6). Operating cash flow was $1,704 million, up 28%, of which attributable operating cash flow was $1,119 million. Attributable free cash flow was $141 million (pages 1, 2, 6 and 10). That last figure matters directly to shareholders, because Barrick’s dividend policy “targets a total payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow on an annualized basis” (page 4). The quarterly dividend declared for the second quarter was $0.175 USD per share, which annualises to $0.70 USD, and the company bought back $1.209 billion of stock in the quarter under a $3 billion program, framing total shareholder returns as up 242% year over year (pages 1 and 4). The balance sheet gives it room: cash of $5,927 million USD against debt of $4,682 million at June 30, 2026, a net cash position of $1,245 million (page 6).
Copper. The other half of the book is easy to miss on a gold screen. Copper production was 56,000 tonnes in the second quarter, down 5% and described by Barrick as “in line with plan”, at a realized price of $6.15 per pound USD against $4.36 a year earlier (pages 7 and 13). Full-year copper guidance is unchanged at 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes with AISC of $3.45 to $3.75 per pound (page 4). Readers weighing Barrick against the broader sector can start from our ranking of Canadian mining stocks.
When and how it reports
Barrick’s own advisory of October 9, 2026, headlined “Barrick to Report Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 9”, states that the company “will release its third quarter 2026 results before markets open on Monday, November 9, 2026, at 6:00 a.m. ET”, and that “the management team will host a live webcast and presentation at 11:00 a.m. ET the same day, followed by a question-and-answer session with analysts”.
So the numbers are public before the open, and management does not speak to them until later in the morning. The release and the commentary land in different parts of the session.
Where the shares sit going in
ABX closed at C$57.20 on Friday November 6, 2026, up from C$56.53 the session before. The 52-week range is C$47.70 to C$74.00, which puts the close 22.7% below the high and 19.9% above the low on our arithmetic. Analyst price targets, also in Canadian dollars, have a mean of C$65.85 and a median of C$70.22, with a high of C$83.90 and a low of C$31.65. With the median at C$70.22 against a C$57.20 close, at least half the set sits above the current price.
What Monday tests is narrow and checkable. Production has to stay on a pace that keeps 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces in reach, costs have to stay inside a band whose floor the first half has already approached, the realized gold price gets compared to a $4,500 assumption, and attributable free cash flow gets compared to the $141 million the second quarter produced on consolidated revenue of $5,292 million USD. Two items either land in the quarter or move: the $1.95 billion Newmont top-up and the North American IPO Barrick still expects to complete this year.
The Street has marked this quarter down 14.6% in 90 days and the next one by 15.5%, while the production and cost guidance Barrick issued for the year stands where it was. Monday puts numbers on both: an earnings line against estimates that have come down, and the operating lines against guidance that has not. The eight-quarter record says only that the size of a surprise has not determined what the shares did next.
Data as of November 6, 2026. All company figures are Barrick’s own for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, from its second quarter 2026 results release, with the page cited at each use, and all are in US dollars. Production, cost and earnings figures are on Barrick’s attributable basis; revenue and operating cash flow are as the company consolidates them, with the attributable cash flow figure named where it is used. Analyst consensus estimates, closing share prices and price targets are from Yahoo Finance as of the November 6, 2026 close, with prices and targets in Canadian dollars. Figures described above as our arithmetic are our own calculations on those published numbers.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Company figures are Barrick Mining Corporation’s own for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, from its second quarter 2026 results release, with the page cited at each use, and all are in US dollars on an attributable basis, which is the basis Barrick leads with. The report date and time are quoted from Barrick’s own advisory of October 9, 2026, headlined Barrick to Report Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 9, which states results are released before markets open on Monday November 9, 2026 at 6:00 a.m. ET with the webcast at 11:00 a.m. ET. Analyst consensus estimates, the 90-day estimate trend, the eight-quarter surprise and reaction history, closing share prices and price targets are from Yahoo Finance as of the November 6, 2026 close, with prices and targets in Canadian dollars. Figures described in the piece as our arithmetic are our own calculations on those published numbers: the 14.6% and 4.7% declines in the consensus estimate, the implied second-half gold production range, and the distances from the 52-week high and low. No technical level appears anywhere in the piece.
