Nvidia Earnings: Eight Straight Beats, and the Stock Fell the Next Day Five Times Out of Eight
Nvidia earnings have cleared the street’s adjusted EPS consensus in eight consecutive reports, by an average of 5.8%. The stock fell in the next session after five of those eight, and the average next-session move across all eight is negative 0.89%.
The ninth arrives on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, under a chief executive of five days’ standing. Jensen Huang resigned on November 12. Colette Kress, the chief financial officer, is interim CEO, and she will meet Tuesday’s call holding both jobs.
Nvidia’s advisory of October 28, 2026 set the release at approximately 1:20 p.m. PT, which is roughly 4:20 p.m. ET, with the call at “Tuesday, November 17, at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET)”. The period being reported is fiscal Q3 2027, the three months ended October 25, 2026. Nvidia’s fiscal 2027 runs from late January 2026 to late January 2027, so an October 2026 quarter falls inside it.
The stock goes in at US$162.85, its Friday November 13 close, 33.1% below its 52-week high of US$243.37 and 9.4% above its 52-week low of US$148.80, by our arithmetic on those prices. Prices from Yahoo Finance.
What the street wants to see
Yahoo Finance’s compilation of analyst estimates, as of the November 13 close, puts adjusted EPS consensus at US$2.47 from 43 analysts, in a range of US$2.26 to US$2.70. Revenue consensus is US$108.73 billion from 45 analysts, ranging from US$100.48 billion to US$116.25 billion.
The EPS estimate has barely moved for two months: US$2.35 ninety days ago, US$2.4727 sixty days ago, US$2.4733 at both thirty days and seven days, and US$2.4712 now. The raise landed between three and two months ago, and nothing since has shifted it by more than a fraction of a cent.
Price targets scatter far more widely than the estimates do. Yahoo’s compilation runs from US$170.00 to US$515.00 around a median of US$275.00 and a mean of US$278.31, and even the lowest of those targets sits above the November 13 close.
On the same sheet, full-year adjusted EPS consensus is US$9.33 for fiscal 2027 from 50 analysts and US$15.85 for fiscal 2028 from 51. Against the November 13 close, that is 17.5 times this fiscal year’s consensus and 10.3 times next year’s, which is our arithmetic on the close and Yahoo’s consensus figures.
Nvidia’s own guidance, and where the street sits against it
The more useful anchor is the company’s own. Under “Outlook” in Nvidia’s own second-quarter fiscal 2027 release of August 26, 2026, Nvidia said:
“Revenue is expected to be $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. NVIDIA is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook.”
“GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points.”
“GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $9.2 billion and $9.0 billion, respectively.”
That plus-or-minus 2% band runs from US$105.84 billion to US$110.16 billion, and the street’s US$108.73 billion sits 0.7% above the company’s midpoint, inside the band. Both figures are our arithmetic on the company’s own guidance. The street’s range is wider than the company’s at both ends: its low falls below the bottom of Nvidia’s band and its high reaches above the top.
Two of the guided lines point the wrong way against last quarter. The guided 74.0% gross margin is a point below the 75.0% Nvidia delivered in fiscal Q2 2027, and guided non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately US$9.0 billion are up from the US$8.232 billion it reported.
The last two quarters came in above the top of the band
Nvidia guides one quarter ahead to a midpoint with a 2% band on either side. The last two times, revenue landed above the top of that band.
| Quarter | Guided midpoint | Top of band | Reported revenue | vs midpoint | vs top of band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal Q1 2027 | US$78.0bn | US$79.56bn | US$81.615bn | +4.6% | +2.6% |
| fiscal Q2 2027 | US$91.0bn | US$92.82bn | US$96.221bn | +5.7% | +3.7% |
The fiscal Q1 2027 guide comes from Nvidia’s fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 release of February 25, 2026, and the fiscal Q2 2027 guide from its Q1 fiscal 2027 release of May 20, 2026. The reported figures come from the Q1 and Q2 fiscal 2027 releases. The band tops and the percentages in that table are our arithmetic on the company’s own figures.
On its other guided lines for fiscal Q2 2027, Nvidia landed exactly on the 75.0% non-GAAP gross margin it had guided, and came in under the approximately US$8.3 billion of non-GAAP operating expense it had guided, at US$8.232 billion. All three of those guides, this quarter’s included, state that the company assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China.
Eight reports, eight beats
Nvidia’s EPS against street consensus, the last eight reports. Consensus and prices: Yahoo Finance.
Eight beats, no misses: +8.5%, +5.2%, +8.0%, +4.1%, +3.5%, +5.3%, +5.5% and +6.2%, averaging +5.8%. No single quarter dominates that average. The narrowest beat still cleared consensus by 3.5%.
What the stock did afterwards
What Nvidia stock did after each of its last eight reports, measured from the pre-report close. Consensus and prices: Yahoo Finance.
| Report | Next session | 30 days | 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 | +0.5% | -7.7% | -4.4% |
| Feb 2025 | -8.5% | -16.5% | +3.2% |
| May 2025 | +3.3% | +17.0% | +34.8% |
| Aug 2025 | -0.8% | -1.9% | -2.1% |
| Nov 2025 | -3.2% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| Feb 2026 | -5.5% | -14.3% | +9.9% |
| May 2026 | -1.8% | -6.5% | -1.6% |
| Aug 2026 | +8.7% | +7.5% | (not yet 90 days) |
Measured from the close before each report, the next session averaged negative 0.89% and was positive in three of eight. Thirty days out, the average was negative 3.16% and positive in two of eight.
The 90-day column reads as positive, averaging +5.58%, and that average needs reading with care. Only three of the seven reports old enough to measure were positive at 90 days. One of them, May 2025 at +34.8%, contributes about 5.0 percentage points of the +5.58%, close to nine tenths of the whole average. The average and the majority of individual outcomes point in opposite directions.
Nvidia changed what its non-GAAP earnings mean
Starting with fiscal Q1 2027, the definition shifted. From the “Non-GAAP Measures” section of the August 26, 2026 release:
“Beginning in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, NVIDIA’s non-GAAP financial measures no longer exclude stock-based compensation expense. The historical non-GAAP financial information presented has been updated to include stock-based compensation expense.”
The size of that change is visible in two Nvidia documents side by side. Fiscal Q2 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS, as the company first reported it on August 27, 2025, was US$1.05. The same quarter, restated in the August 26, 2026 release, is US$1.01. A difference of four cents, or 3.8%.
This lands directly on Tuesday’s arithmetic. The US$2.47 consensus is struck on the new basis. The year-ago comparative Yahoo Finance carries for this quarter, non-GAAP diluted EPS of US$1.30 in fiscal Q3 2026, is on the old one. A growth rate computed across that boundary is comparing two definitions of the same measure, and because the new basis carries an expense the old one excluded, it understates the like-for-like growth. The direction of that distortion is certain.
The beat record above is unaffected. Each quarter’s estimate and actual were struck on the same basis as each other at the time, so each surprise percentage holds internally.
Five days before the print, the founder resigned
Nvidia’s board announced an independent investigation on Sunday November 8. The stock fell 4.27% the next day to close at US$178.67, and has fallen a further 8.9% from there to the November 13 close, by our arithmetic on the two closes.
On November 10 the independent directors said they had “retained former acting U.S. Attorney of the Southern District of New York Joon H. Kim and his firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to conduct a thorough and independent investigation as was announced on Sunday”.
Two days later came Nvidia’s CEO transition release, which states that Huang “has resigned as President, Chief Executive Officer, and a member of the Board, effective immediately”. The release states no reason. Kress, the company’s CFO since September 2013, “has agreed to serve as Interim Chief Executive Officer” and keeps the CFO role while she holds it. The board is recruiting a permanent successor and “will consider internal and external candidates”. Harvey C. Jones was appointed the board’s first-ever Chair, and said the board “has full confidence in Colette and the leadership team, and we expect the company’s operations, customer commitments and product roadmap to continue without interruption”.
The same release confirms that Tuesday is unchanged: results and the call proceed “as previously scheduled”. So the quarter and the next guide are presented by a finance chief who took the chief executive’s job five days before the print, a week after the independent directors retained outside counsel.
Markets took a week to treat any of this as a sector problem. From the November 5 close to the November 12 close, Nvidia fell 8.5% while Celestica rose 25.5% and AMD rose 44.7%, by our arithmetic on closing prices. The AI complex rallied while Nvidia alone sank. Friday November 13 reversed all three, in a session Yahoo Finance attributed to a broad semiconductor selloff as investors digested the CEO exit.
Which Canadian names Tuesday actually reaches
Our ranking of Canadian AI stocks regresses each name’s daily log return on Nvidia’s across the 504 trading sessions ended September 11, 2026, and reports the R-squared: the share of a stock’s daily variance that moves with Nvidia. Celestica is the highest of the twenty-five names tested at 30.9%, ahead of Hut 8 at 21.0% and Brookfield at 20.3%. Shopify is 14.9%. The median across all twenty-five is 5.0%.
That median is the honest half of the point. Most Canadian stocks described as AI exposure barely move with Nvidia at all, and the ones that do are hardware, power and infrastructure rather than software.
Nvidia itself trades on the TSX as a CIBC Canadian Depositary Receipt under the ticker NVDA, currency-hedged into Canadian dollars and listed since January 26, 2022. The ratio on November 13, 2026 was 0.15566, so one receipt represents 0.156 of a Nvidia share, per CIBC’s own CDR directory, read on November 14, 2026. A Canadian reader can hold the name in Canadian dollars without running an FX conversion, and our guide to Canadian Depositary Receipts sets out what the hedge inside the receipt costs.
Four fiscal years of revenue
Nvidia revenue by fiscal year, from the company’s own fourth-quarter releases for fiscal 2023, 2025 and 2026.
From the company’s own year-end releases: US$26.97 billion in fiscal 2023, US$60.922 billion in fiscal 2024, US$130.497 billion in fiscal 2025 and US$215.938 billion in fiscal 2026. Compounded across those three steps, that is 100.1% a year.
The guidance midpoint for this single quarter, US$108.0 billion, is four times the whole of fiscal 2023, by our arithmetic on the company’s two figures. Against fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of US$57.006 billion, reported in Nvidia’s Q4 fiscal 2026 release, that midpoint implies revenue up 89.5% year over year and 12.2% from the quarter just gone, again our arithmetic on the company’s figures.
Last quarter, fiscal Q2 2027, revenue was US$96.221 billion, up 18% sequentially and 106% from a year ago on the company’s own stated percentages, with Data Center revenue of US$89.0 billion up 117% year over year. Non-GAAP net income of US$53.954 billion on that revenue is a 56.1% net margin by our arithmetic on the company’s two figures.
Colette Kress, in the November 12 release: “NVIDIA’s strength has always come from its people, and together with our leadership team, I am committed to building on the extraordinary foundation Jensen created over the last 33 years.”
What the company’s own outlook puts in play
The quarter in Tuesday’s release is largely known. The number that moves the stock on Tuesday night is the guidance Nvidia issues for fiscal Q4 2027, against street consensus of US$124.92 billion in revenue from 42 analysts and US$2.76 in EPS from 41, and it will be issued by an interim chief executive in her first week.
Four lines in the release itself carry the rest. Revenue against the US$108.0 billion midpoint, and whether it clears the top of the band for a third straight quarter. Gross margin against the guided 74.0%, a point below last quarter. China, because the outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from the country at all, so any contribution from China sits above the plan the company set itself. And operating expenses against approximately US$9.0 billion on a non-GAAP basis, up from US$8.232 billion.
The two halves of the setup sit in plain tension. The company has beaten its own band twice running and guided to a quarter four times the size of fiscal 2023’s full year. The stock is a third off its 52-week high, with a guided margin step-down and an investigation its independent directors commissioned still running.
Data as of: prices and analyst consensus are from Yahoo Finance as of the November 13, 2026 close. Company figures and quotations are from the Nvidia releases named above, including the CEO transition release of November 12, 2026 and the independent directors’ statement of November 10, 2026. The Canadian exposure figures are our own regression over the 504 trading sessions ended September 11, 2026.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Company figures and quotations come from NVIDIA’s own press releases: the second-quarter fiscal 2027 release of August 26, 2026, which carries the fiscal third-quarter outlook and the change to NVIDIA’s non-GAAP definition; the first-quarter fiscal 2027 release of May 20, 2026; the fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 release of February 25, 2026; the second-quarter fiscal 2026 release of August 27, 2025, which holds that quarter’s non-GAAP earnings per share as first reported; the fourth-quarter releases for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2023, for the fiscal-year revenue series; the CEO transition release of November 12, 2026; and the Statement From the Independent Members of the NVIDIA Board of November 10, 2026. Analyst consensus, price targets, the eight-quarter beat record and the share price reaction history are Yahoo Finance data as of the November 13, 2026 close. The Canadian Depositary Receipt ratio and listing details are from CIBC’s own CDR directory, read on November 14, 2026. The AI exposure figures are our own regression of each stock’s daily log return on Nvidia’s over the 504 trading sessions ended September 11, 2026. NVIDIA’s fiscal year ends on the last Sunday in January, so the quarter ended October 25, 2026 is its fiscal third quarter of fiscal 2027. All dollar figures for NVIDIA are US dollars.
