Bitcoin Is Up 42% This Quarter. Its Own Record Gives Three Different Answers
Bitcoin trades at $83,221.64 USD this morning, down 1.46% from the September 27 close of $84,458.09 USD, and it is finishing the biggest quarter it has had in two years. Measured to that live price, Bitcoin is up 42.12% for the third quarter of 2026, its largest quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 2024. The quarter closes Wednesday, September 30. Data as of 8:05 a.m. ET on September 28, 2026.
One caveat belongs ahead of everything else. The quarter began at the June 30, 2026 close of $58,558.86 USD, the lowest close of 2026. The 42.12% is measured from the worst day of the year, which is a materially different fact from the same percentage off an ordinary starting point. It is also what decides which part of Bitcoin’s own history this quarter should be compared against, and that comparison is most of this piece. Every figure below is our arithmetic on Yahoo Finance daily closes, and the quarter-to-date numbers run to a live bar rather than a close.
The tape this morning
Ethereum is at $2,670.80 USD, down 0.60% from $2,686.93 USD. In Canadian dollars, Bitcoin is $117,630.68 CAD, down 1.61% from $119,549.74 CAD, and Ethereum is $3,776.77 CAD, down 0.70% from $3,803.32 CAD. Those are live bars rather than closes, and the TradingView BTCUSD chart carries the rest of the session.
What the quarter actually did
In US dollars, Bitcoin went from the June 30 close of $58,558.86 USD to $83,221.64 USD, a gain of 42.12%. In Canadian dollars it went from $83,197.91 CAD to $117,630.68 CAD, a gain of 41.39%. Ethereum ran harder over the same window, from $1,569.58 USD to $2,670.80 USD, up 70.16%.
The three quarters before this one were all negative: the fourth quarter of 2025 at -23.3%, the first quarter of 2026 at -22.0%, and the second quarter of 2026 at -14.2%. That run is where the low starting point came from. The last quarter bigger than this one was the fourth quarter of 2024 at +47.53%, and the closest since then was the second quarter of 2025 at +29.78%. Among third quarters, only 2017 beat it, at +74.89%.
Bitcoin by the quarter, the last nine. The current quarter runs to the live price at 8:05 a.m. ET on September 28, 2026, a live bar and not a close. Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes for BTC-USD, and our arithmetic on them.
Price is only one side of a quarter this size. The flow side we followed separately, in our report on Bitcoin ETF flows turning positive.
The year is still negative, and it reads differently from Canada
A 42.12% quarter has not been enough to put 2026 in the green. Bitcoin closed 2025 at $87,508.83 USD and trades at $83,221.64 USD now, leaving the year at -4.90%. Ethereum is down 9.98% on the year, from $2,967.04 USD, and Bitcoin sits 33.29% below its highest daily close on record, the $124,752.53 USD it printed on October 6, 2025.
The exchange rate has cut both ways. Over the quarter it cost a holder here a little, +42.12% in US dollars against +41.39% in Canadian dollars. Over the year it has saved them nearly three points, with 2026 reading -4.90% in US dollars and -2.06% from the December 31, 2025 close of $120,107.79 CAD. We set out how the two lines come apart in our piece on Bitcoin’s return in Canadian dollars. How the exposure gets held from a Canadian account is a separate question again, and our coverage of Canadian crypto stocks is where that side of it lives.
August did the heavy lifting, and August is the worst month in the record
Across the completed months from October 2014 to August 2026, August has the worst median return of any calendar month, -7.19%, and it has been positive in only 4 of 12 years. Bitcoin gained 25.05% in August 2026, the second-best August on record behind August 2017 at +63.58%. Every other August in the file: 2015 -19.18%, 2016 -7.88%, 2018 -9.55%, 2019 -4.51%, 2020 +3.16%, 2021 +13.31%, 2022 -14.09%, 2023 -11.29%, 2024 -8.74%, 2025 -6.50%.
The month that gets the bad reputation is September, and the record does not really support it. September’s median is -3.08%, the fourth worst, behind August, January at -3.46% and December at -3.16%. The folklore rests on six consecutive negative Septembers from 2017 through 2022, and that streak ended in 2023. Counting September 2026 as it stands at +5.95%, this is the fourth positive September in a row. Across all months the median is +3.10%.
Where September really sits. Median return for every completed month from October 2014 to August 2026; September 2026 is still running and is excluded. Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes for BTC-USD, and our arithmetic on them.
The full 2026 ledger: January -10.16%, February -14.79%, March +1.85%, April +11.83%, May -3.57%, June -20.41%, July +7.27%, August +25.05%, and September +5.95% to the live price.
What followed the other 14 quarters this big
There are 47 completed quarters in Bitcoin’s record, and this one will be the 48th. Fourteen of the 47 gained 40% or more. This is the quarter that came after each one.
| Big quarter | Its gain | Next quarter | Next-quarter return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015Q4 | +82.4% | 2016Q1 | -3.2% |
| 2016Q2 | +61.6% | 2016Q3 | -9.4% |
| 2016Q4 | +58.1% | 2017Q1 | +11.2% |
| 2017Q2 | +131.5% | 2017Q3 | +74.9% |
| 2017Q3 | +74.9% | 2017Q4 | +226.3% |
| 2017Q4 | +226.3% | 2018Q1 | -50.7% |
| 2019Q2 | +163.5% | 2019Q3 | -23.3% |
| 2020Q2 | +41.9% | 2020Q3 | +18.0% |
| 2020Q4 | +168.9% | 2021Q1 | +103.2% |
| 2021Q1 | +103.2% | 2021Q2 | -40.5% |
| 2023Q1 | +72.1% | 2023Q2 | +7.0% |
| 2023Q4 | +56.7% | 2024Q1 | +68.8% |
| 2024Q1 | +68.8% | 2024Q2 | -12.1% |
| 2024Q4 | +47.5% | 2025Q1 | -11.6% |
Pooled, all fourteen: median +1.9%, seven positive, worst -50.7% and best +226.3%, with the middle half of the outcomes running from -12.0% to +56.1%. That is a range you have to sit with rather than average away. For scale, the median across the 47 completed quarters is +3.5% and 25 were positive. The quarter now finishing is left out of that baseline on purpose, because dropping a 42% quarter into the comparison inflates the very thing the base rate is measured against.
The same fourteen quarters, split
The pooled number treats the fourteen as one situation, and they are not. Four were themselves preceded by a 40% quarter, so they were already deep in a run: 2017Q3, 2017Q4, 2021Q1 and 2024Q1. The other ten arrived after a lull, which is this quarter’s position, with three straight losing quarters behind it and the year’s lowest close as a starting point.
| Group | n | Median next quarter | Positive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Came off a lull, like this quarter | 10 | +9.1% | 6 of 10 |
| Already deep in a run | 4 | -26.3% | 1 of 4 |
| All fourteen pooled | 14 | +1.9% | 7 of 14 |
| Any completed quarter, for scale | 47 | +3.5% | 25 of 47 |
The four run continuations were followed by +226.3%, -50.7%, -40.5% and -12.1%. Three of the four worst outcomes in the whole table sit in that group of four.
A third defensible count lands somewhere else again. Four of the fourteen outcomes are themselves 40% quarters that re-enter the study as triggers, so the fourteen rows describe ten runs of strength rather than fourteen separate events. Count each run once, taking only the quarter that followed its final big quarter, and those ten observations give a median of -10.5%, positive 3 of 10. The two ten-observation samples share seven rows; the three they differ on carry the whole gap.
Three defensible definitions of “a quarter like this one” therefore return +9.1%, +1.9% and -10.5%. The spread between the definitions is wider than the effect any one of them claims to measure, so the filter is doing the work, not the data. The group this quarter belongs to is the most favourable of the three, and it rests on ten observations, which settles nothing.
The quarter that followed each of Bitcoin’s 14 gains of 40% or more, split into the ten that came off a lull and the four already deep in a run, with a median line over each group. Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes for BTC-USD, and our arithmetic on them.
The halving cycle sits underneath all of it
The fourteen big quarters are not fourteen independent draws. They cluster: 2015Q4 through 2017Q4, then 2019Q2, then 2020Q2 through 2021Q1, then 2023Q1 through 2024Q1, then 2024Q4. That clustering tracks Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, the most discussed structural feature of the asset. None of this tests cycle theory or needs to endorse it. The narrower point is that quarterly returns are not independent draws, that cycle position is the obvious confounder in any study built this way, and that the medians above are better read as descriptions of a short history than as estimates of a rate.
Where the calendar fits
Q4 is the strongest calendar quarter in the record, median +26.64% and positive 7 of 12. The others sit below it: Q1 at -2.44% and 5 of 12, Q2 at +7.37% and 7 of 12, Q3 at +1.04% and 6 of 11.
Once the comparison group is matched to this quarter’s situation, the seasonal and the base rate mostly stop contradicting each other, with the run-start group at +9.1% and the Q4 seasonal at +26.64% pointing the same way. The agreement changes little. One rests on ten observations and the other on twelve, both from the same twelve years, and neither can carry a forecast.
What is actually known
The quarter was genuinely big, 42.12% and the best since the fourth quarter of 2024, measured from the lowest close of the year. The year is still negative, -4.90% in US dollars and -2.06% in Canadian dollars. And the record of what came next after quarters like it does not resolve to one number: depending on which quarters are allowed into the comparison, the median is +9.1%, +1.9% or -10.5%.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Live crypto quotes as of 8:05 am ET, September 28, 2026, from Yahoo Finance. Every quarterly, monthly and annual return is our arithmetic on Yahoo Finance daily closes for BTC-USD, BTC-CAD and ETH-USD; the current quarter runs to the live price rather than to a close.
