Canada and the US Report August Jobs Today: What to Watch
The results are in: Canada lost 42,000 jobs in August while US payrolls rose 162,000, beating every forecast. Full analysis of both reports and the market reaction: Canada Jobs Report: 42,000 Lost in August, US Adds 162,000.
Canada’s August jobs report and the US August payrolls report both land at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning, at the same minute, from Statistics Canada and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Neither number is out as this is published. What follows is what economists expect, what each central bank has in front of it, and where the two reports pull in different directions.
The setup is unusual. In Canada, the question is how much of a four-month hiring run is left. In the United States, the live argument is whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in twelve days.
Canada: a sharp slowdown is the base case
Economists expect employers added 15,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.4%, according to a Reuters poll of economists reported by The Canadian Press. Those are the expectations as of Friday morning, before the release.
Fifteen thousand is a modest number, and it looks more modest beside July. According to Statistics Canada’s July Labour Force Survey release in The Daily, employment rose by 75,000 (+0.4%) in July and the unemployment rate fell to 6.4%, its lowest in two years and a third consecutive monthly decline, down 0.5 percentage points since April. Over that four-month stretch employment climbed 181,000 (+0.9%), and the gain was concentrated in full-time work, up 193,000 (+1.1%). The employment rate stood at 60.9%.
July’s gains also came from several sectors at once. Wholesale and retail trade added 21,000; finance, insurance and real estate 18,000; professional services 17,000; and construction 16,000. Public administration fell 15,000 and agriculture fell 9,600.
So the consensus call amounts to hiring running at a fifth of July’s pace while the unemployment rate stays put. Those two things are not contradictory, because the rate depends on labour force participation as well as employment, but they describe two different labour markets, and the composition of the release will matter as much as the headline.
One line to watch inside the report is wages. Average hourly wages rose 2.8% year over year in July, up $1.01 to $37.17, after 3.3% in June.
What it does to the Bank of Canada’s October math
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, September 2, where it has sat since the cut from 2.50% took effect on October 30, 2025. The next decision is October 28, under eight weeks away, with the August inflation reading due September 14 in between.
A number close to consensus tells the Bank very little it did not already know. The interesting outcomes are the tails. A negative print would cut against the 181,000 jobs added since April and would support the case that the summer strength has broken. A print well above consensus would suggest July was not a one-off. Neither result settles October 28 on its own, and the wage line matters here too: hourly wage growth has already stepped down from 3.3% in June to 2.8% in July, and another step down would read differently than a rebound.
The trade dispute sits underneath the number
Both reports land while a trade dispute is running between the two countries. The United States imposed a 50% tariff on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods effective August 22, under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, after talks broke down in August. Canada’s matching counter-tariffs take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday, September 8.
The Bank of Canada said this week, in comments reported by The Canadian Press, that federal support programs “will likely mitigate some of the harm,” while uncertainty “may lead businesses to delay investment and hiring decisions.” That second clause is the one a jobs report can speak to. Deferred hiring is visible in a labour survey before it is visible in almost any other series.
United States: a low bar and a very wide range
The US consensus is 56,000 payrolls, with a 4.1% unemployment rate, unchanged from the prior month, according to InvestingLive’s by-the-numbers preview of August non-farm payrolls. Average hourly earnings are expected at 3.0% year over year, down from 3.2%, and 0.3% month over month, up from 0.1%.
The spread around that consensus is the part worth noting. Individual estimates run from -25,000 to +121,000. A range that spans a contraction and a solid gain is one in which the median forecast carries very little information on its own, and it sits on a recent record that has been erratic: July payrolls fell 23,000, while June rose 63,000. Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls reading of 38,000 was soft.
The Fed stake: the argument is about a hike
The unusual feature of this cycle is the direction of the debate. The market is pricing just under even odds of a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC decision, not a cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has downplayed how much weight this jobs report should carry, saying he is watching inflation data more closely than employment for the policy call.
Hike bets faded earlier this week, and the TSX closed Thursday up 1.5%, a session we covered in our September 3 market recap. This morning’s payrolls are the next input into the same question. A hot number strengthens the hike case and a soft one weakens it. If the print lands somewhere inside that wide estimate range without clearing either edge, the likelier outcome is that the September 16 argument carries on unresolved, which is roughly where Waller’s comment already puts it.
The tape going into 8:30
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Thursday at 36,633.12, up 1.5%. The S&P 500 finished at 7,747.71 (+1.06%) and the Nasdaq at 26,584.06 (+1.4%). Source: Yahoo Finance, data as of the September 3 close.
Thursday’s leadership was concentrated at the top. Technology, measured by the sector’s proxy ETF XIT, gained 3.78%, gold (XGD) 3.72%, materials (XMA) 3.06% and financials (XFN) 1.47%.
The index also arrives at this morning with a streak behind it. The TSX has posted five straight positive months, April through August (April +3.65%, May +2.37%, June +0.25%, July +1.06%, August +2.96%), and September is up roughly 1% month to date. Both of today’s releases land before the opening bell, so the reaction, whichever way it runs, is a Friday story rather than a slow one.
After 8:30
We will publish the actual numbers once both releases are out, measured against the consensus figures above. After today, Monday is Labour Day and Canadian and US markets are closed, so the next session is Tuesday, September 8, the same morning Canada’s counter-tariffs take effect.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. July employment figures are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. Consensus estimates are from a Reuters poll of economists reported by The Canadian Press and from InvestingLive’s payrolls preview. Policy rate figures are from the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve schedule. Index data from Yahoo Finance, as of the September 3, 2026 close.
