Crypto Market Recap Oct 5: Bitcoin Near $86,000 USD, a 2% Round Trip to Nowhere
Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $86,061.71 USD as of 7:05 p.m. ET Monday, down 0.48% from Sunday’s UTC close of $86,480.30 USD. In Canadian dollars it sat at $122,556.99 CAD, down 0.58% from Sunday’s $123,273.18 CAD close. Ethereum (ETH) was at $2,718.96 USD, down 0.28%, and $3,873.53 CAD, down 0.33%. Those four prices are a Yahoo Finance snapshot taken at 7:05 p.m. ET, not a daily close: crypto trades continuously and Bitcoin’s UTC day was still open. The market figures below are Yahoo data too, and each one says which series it comes from. The CAD prices are the USD prices translated at the prevailing exchange rate, so a Canadian holder’s return differs from the headline by whatever the currency does. The tenth of a percentage point between the 0.48% fall in US dollars and the 0.58% fall in Canadian ones is that currency effect, and nothing else.
The UTC day’s net decline was booked before midnight Eastern
Sunday’s UTC close of $86,480.30 USD was struck at 8 p.m. ET Sunday evening, the moment Bitcoin’s calendar day rolls over. It did not fall away from there. On the hourly closes it was higher two hours later, and touched $86,991.15 USD along the way in the hour to 10 p.m., the highest price it reached anywhere in the UTC day now labelled Monday. Then it dropped $458.40 USD in the single hour to midnight, more than the whole of the decline the headline reports, and sat at $86,051.24 USD as Eastern Monday began, down 0.496% on Sunday’s close.
From midnight Eastern through the 7:05 p.m. snapshot of $86,061.71 USD, the stretch that covers Monday’s daylight hours and the Nasdaq’s entire record session, Bitcoin added $10.47 USD, or 0.012%.
This is what a UTC day boundary does to an asset that never closes. The -0.48% attached to Monday nets out to a loss booked before the Eastern day began. The path is a different matter: Bitcoin had recovered to within $45 USD of Sunday’s close by 10 a.m., gave up 2.01% through the middle of the day, and bought most of that back by evening. The day ran a long way to finish where it started.
Bitcoin round-tripped through the Nasdaq’s record session and finished level
Yahoo stamps each hourly bar at the moment it opens, so a bar’s closing price is the price one hour later. Reading Bitcoin’s hourly bars that way: it opened the 9 a.m. hour at $85,874.88 USD and climbed to $86,435.95 USD by 10 a.m., the high point of the walk before the slide. From there it fell to $85,251.55 USD by noon, then recovered to $85,724.55 USD by 4 p.m. Across the window that brackets the Nasdaq’s cash session, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., Bitcoin was down just 0.18%, while the Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,477.31, up 1.05% and above its previous record close of 27,244.28, set on September 22.
Of the $1,184.41 USD drop from 10 a.m. to noon, $473.00 USD came back by 4 p.m., inside the session, and a further $337.16 USD came back after it. More of the recovery happened before the close than after, and the snapshot still sits below where Bitcoin stood at 10 a.m.
Across Monday’s Eastern hours Bitcoin’s highest hourly print was $86,713.91 USD, between 10 and 11 a.m., and its lowest was $84,972.86 USD, between noon and 1 p.m., a span of 2.01% measured off the high. That high sits below the $86,991.15 USD Bitcoin traded at on Sunday evening, but above Sunday’s closing price of $86,480.30 USD, the mark the rest of this piece measures against.
Nineteen of the twenty hourly bars covering Monday up to the snapshot carry a volume figure, and among those the two heaviest were the hour to 11 a.m., at roughly $2.00 billion USD, and the hour to noon, at roughly $2.22 billion USD. The third heaviest was the hour to 6 p.m., at roughly $1.41 billion USD.
Ethereum moved through the same shape
Ethereum ran the same pattern as Bitcoin, on a smaller scale. It fell 0.94% from 10 a.m. to noon, from $2,722.26 USD to $2,696.77 USD, and set its lowest hourly print of Monday’s Eastern hours, $2,679.13 USD, between noon and 1 p.m., 1.74% below Sunday’s close and the same hour as Bitcoin’s low. From noon to the 7:05 p.m. snapshot it gained 0.82%, in step with Bitcoin’s own recovery.
A Bitcoin down day on a strong Nasdaq day is one in three
Match Nasdaq sessions to Bitcoin’s change over the same calendar date and Bitcoin rose on 66.4% of the 566 sessions since September 2014 on which the Nasdaq gained 1% or more. It fell on the other 190. That 66.4% is a real lift: across the 2,462 sessions where the Nasdaq did not gain 1%, Bitcoin rose only 48.4% of the time. A strong Nasdaq day shifts the odds by about 18 percentage points, and Monday went the other way regardless. Since the US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 it fell on 36 of 136 such sessions, or 26.5%. One day in three across the full span, one in four since the ETFs arrived. Monday was one of them, and so was Friday, when the Nasdaq rose 1.19% and Bitcoin slipped 0.42%.
Thirty sessions of moving together, with Bitcoin ahead
The correlation between Bitcoin’s and the Nasdaq’s daily returns over the last 30 matched sessions is 0.582. The median 30-session correlation across all 3,000 such windows since 2014 is 0.211, with the middle half falling between -0.018 and 0.444. The current reading sits at the 90th percentile of its own history: the two are moving together more tightly than they have in nine windows out of ten since 2014.
Correlation says nothing about which one gained more, and the two questions are not even measured the same way. The correlation runs on returns matched session by session, so Bitcoin’s weekends drop out of it. Cumulative performance runs on the unbroken price path, weekends included. On that path, from the August 21 close to Yahoo’s running daily value for Monday, Bitcoin is up 9.76% and the Nasdaq is up 4.95%. Bitcoin is 4.81 percentage points ahead, and that gap sits at the 56th percentile of its own history, against a median of 2.57 points. Ordinary, in other words.
Over the last 10 sessions, on the same basis, the lead runs the other way: Bitcoin is down 0.71% while the Nasdaq is up 1.31%, and Bitcoin has closed lower on 8 of those 10 sessions while the Nasdaq rose on 7 of them.
Bitcoin has had more down days than the Nasdaq lately and is still well ahead of it over the month, because a handful of large up days did the work. Which answer you get depends on the window you pick, and that is why two days of Bitcoin falling while the Nasdaq rises supports no conclusion at all.
Monday did not follow Sunday’s gain
Sunday’s crypto recap asked whether Monday would carry Sunday’s 2.02% gain forward, and answered with a record rather than a guess: across 134 Mondays that followed a Sunday closing up 1.5% or more, the mean Monday return was +0.653%, against +0.455% for the 494 Mondays that followed a weaker Sunday, a difference the Welch t statistic of 0.54 put inside the noise. It also found a hint that Monday tends to move further after a strong Sunday, a median absolute move of 2.06% against 1.55%.
Monday did not follow. Measured to the 7:05 p.m. snapshot, Bitcoin had given back $418.59 USD of Sunday’s $1,716.72 USD close-to-close gain, 24.4% of it. The 0.48% move that represents is well under both medians, with the day not yet closed. One draw settles nothing about where a 134-observation record sits.
The TSX-listed fund opened higher, then gave a little of it back
Sunday’s piece noted that a holder of a TSX-listed Bitcoin fund could not act on the weekend’s move, and that the gain could be larger by Monday’s open, or entirely gone. Here is what actually happened, from Yahoo Finance’s daily bars for BTCC.B on the TSX, the Canadian-dollar unhedged class of Purpose’s Bitcoin fund. The fund closed Friday at $16.74 CAD and opened Monday at $16.97 CAD, up 1.37% on Friday’s close. It traded as high as $17.12 CAD and as low as $16.79 CAD during the session, then closed at $16.92 CAD, up 1.08% on Friday and down 0.29% from its own open.
The fund opened well above Friday’s close and closed below its own open, having traded on both sides of it in between. There is a timing gap worth naming too: the fund printed its last price of the day at 4 p.m., and Bitcoin kept trading after that, reaching $86,061.71 USD by the 7:05 p.m. snapshot. A fund holder reads about that later move tonight and only prices it tomorrow.
That 4 p.m. print is set by the closing auction that ends a normal Canadian trading session, a mechanism our guide to how the Canadian stock market actually works sets out hour by hour. For readers weighing fund options, our page on Canadian-listed crypto exposure covers what actually trades on the TSX.
The week ahead brings Canadian data, and a rate decision later this month
Two Statistics Canada releases land this week. August merchandise trade data arrives October 6, followed by the September Labour Force Survey on October 9. Neither is a crypto release, but the jobs report feeds the rate expectations sitting underneath Canadian risk assets generally. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate page carries the next announcement, due October 28, with the policy rate currently at 2.25%.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot prices are a Yahoo Finance snapshot taken at 7:05 p.m. ET on October 5, 2026 (23:05:02 UTC, which is UTC-4 on that date), measured against Sunday’s UTC daily close on the same feed. Crypto trades continuously, so Monday’s UTC bar was still open and the snapshot is not a close. Hour-by-hour figures are Yahoo one-hour bars, which Yahoo stamps at the moment each bar opens, so every price is quoted at the Eastern time one hour after its bar’s stamp; the midnight Eastern price of 86,051.24 is the close of the bar stamped 11 p.m. ET. Hourly volume is reported on 19 of the 20 bars covering Monday up to the snapshot and the ranking is among those. The piece deliberately runs three different October 5 Bitcoin readings and names the basis of each where used: the 7:05 p.m. snapshot (86,061.71), the midnight Eastern price (86,051.24), and Yahoo’s running daily value (85,984.53) which is the endpoint of the 30-session cumulative figures and of the matched-session screen. The Nasdaq screen is our own arithmetic on Yahoo daily closes, matching Nasdaq Composite sessions to Bitcoin’s change over the same calendar date from September 18, 2014 to October 2, 2026 with October 5 excluded from every historical figure; the two windows overlap without being identical because Bitcoin’s day runs on UTC and the Nasdaq’s on its cash session. Daily-return correlation is computed on returns taken within each series and matched by date, so Bitcoin’s weekends drop out; the cumulative 30-session figures run on the unbroken price path from the August 21 closes and include weekends. That difference is stated in the body. BTCC.B figures are Yahoo daily bars for the TSX listing; no comparison is drawn between the fund’s return and spot Bitcoin’s because the two are measured over different windows. The Canadian dollar’s direction is not asserted anywhere: only the definitional wedge between the USD and CAD returns is named.
