Stock Market & Business News

Dollarama Earnings: 7-for-8 Beat Record Meets a 52-Week Low

· · Updated September 11, 2026
Dollarama has emerged as one of the best Canadian stocks in 2026

Dollarama reports second-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday, September 16, before the open, and it does so from an unusual position: the stock closed Friday at $167.11, roughly 0.7% above its 52-week low of $166.00 and about 20% below its 52-week high of $209.96. The Dollarama earnings record going into the print is strong. Seven of the last eight reports beat the Street’s EPS estimate. The share price reaction to those beats has been a good deal less consistent, and that gap is the most interesting thing about this quarter.

All price, consensus and price-target figures below are as of the September 11 close, and all consensus and market data comes from Yahoo Finance. Every company figure comes from Dollarama’s own quarterly release.

What the Street expects on Wednesday

The quarter covers the 13 weeks from May 4 to August 2, 2026. Fiscal 2027 ends January 31, 2027.

Nine analysts contributing EPS estimates average $1.26, in a range of $1.22 to $1.30. Dollarama’s actual EPS in the year-ago second quarter was $1.16, so consensus implies growth of roughly 8.2%. On the top line, 14 analysts average $2.02 billion of revenue, in a range of $1.995 billion to $2.061 billion, against $1.72 billion a year ago. That is implied growth near 17%.

That 17% deserves an asterisk, and it is arithmetic rather than opinion. Dollarama closed its acquisition of The Reject Shop, now Dollarama Australia, on July 21, 2025. The year-ago comparative quarter ran the 13 weeks to August 3, 2025, so it carried only about two weeks of Australian sales. Wednesday’s quarter carries a full 13 weeks of them. A large part of the consensus revenue growth is therefore the Australian consolidation annualizing against a nearly empty base, not Canadian sales growth.

Estimates have barely moved. The consensus EPS figure was $1.27 ninety days ago, $1.25 thirty days ago and $1.26 now, which is no revision momentum in either direction. For the full year, ten analysts average $5.13.

One basis note worth carrying into Wednesday morning. Dollarama publishes no adjusted EPS. The actual EPS Yahoo recorded for the first quarter was $1.05, which is the figure Dollarama itself reported excluding a derivative gain, not the $1.11 of reported diluted EPS in the release. If the headline number that crosses the wire is on a different basis than the $1.26 consensus, the beat or miss you see in the first minute may not be the one that holds up.

Eight quarters, seven beats

Dollarama has cleared the consensus EPS estimate in seven of its last eight reports. The exception, December 2024, was not really a miss either: actual EPS came in at $0.98 against a $0.98 estimate, a rounding difference of 0.2%. Across all eight reports the average surprise is +5.1%.

Dollarama quarterly EPS, consensus estimate versus reported actual, last eight reports

Dollarama’s EPS actual against consensus for each of its last eight reports. Seven came in above the estimate, by an average of 5.1%.

The spread of those surprises matters more than the hit rate. The largest was June 2025, at +13.6%. April 2025 came in 7.1% above, December 2025 6.5% above and June 2026 6.2% above. At the other end, March 2026 beat by 1.8% and August 2025 by 0.7%. A company that clears its number by less than a percentage point is, in practice, reporting in line.

If the mechanics of how a company’s results get measured against an estimate are new to you, our explainer on what moves a stock price covers why the gap between result and expectation usually matters more than the result itself. That is precisely the pattern in Dollarama’s reaction history.

Why the beat has not settled the reaction

Here is the part that a 7-for-8 record does not tell you. Across those eight reports, the next-session move Yahoo records averages +0.9%, and it was positive after only four of the eight. Isolating the seven beats lifts the average to +1.8%, while the single in-line print in December 2024 was followed by a 5.1% decline. All eight reports were released pre-market.

Dollarama share price move after each of its last eight earnings reports, next session, 30 days and 90 days

Next-session, 30-day and 90-day share price moves following each of Dollarama’s last eight reports. Four of the eight next-session moves were negative.

Three beats were followed by next-session declines. March 2026 is the sharpest example: EPS came in 1.8% above consensus and the stock fell 9.6% the following session, was still down 8.6% thirty days later, and closed the 90-day window 0.9% lower. August 2025 beat by 0.7% and fell 3.6%. December 2025 beat by 6.5% and fell 1.5%.

The two big next-session rallies followed the June 2025 report, which beat by 13.6% and rose 9.8%, and the June 2026 report, which beat by 6.2% and rose 9.0%. But the relationship is not clean in either direction: April 2025’s 7.1% beat, the second-largest of the eight, moved the stock just 0.4% the next session. And the rallies have not always stuck. The June 2026 report’s +9.0% next session had faded to +3.8% at thirty days and to -3.8% at ninety.

None of that forecasts Wednesday. It is the record of what has happened after eight reports, and the honest summary is that a small beat has not been enough to move this stock higher recently.

The baseline: what Dollarama reported in Q1

The most recent quarter is the reference point for everything Wednesday’s release will be measured against. In Dollarama’s first-quarter release on June 11, 2026, covering the 13 weeks to May 3:

  • Sales of $1,846.1 million, up 21.4% from $1,521.2 million. The drivers the company named were Canadian store growth, from 1,638 to 1,719 stores year over year, Canadian comparable store sales growth, and a $192.8 million contribution from 410 Australian stores.
  • Canadian comparable store sales up 5.6%, against 4.9% a year earlier, from 3.5% more transactions and 2.0% larger baskets. Dollarama attributed it to demand for consumables and general merchandise. It publishes no comparable sales figure for Australia while it retools those stores.
  • Diluted EPS of $1.11 against $0.98, up 13.3%, including a $0.06 per share unrealized gain on the Dollarcity call-option derivative. Excluding that gain the company reported $1.05. Australia cost $0.04 per share, a net loss of $11.3 million.
  • Consolidated gross margin of 43.9% against 44.2%, with Australia a 110 basis point drag. Canada alone ran 45.0%; Australia 34.4%. SG&A was 16.5% of sales against 15.3%, with Australia a 140 basis point drag.
  • EBITDA of $582.5 million, up 17.4%, a 31.6% margin, or 30.7% excluding the derivative gain, against 31.9% a year earlier.
  • Dollarcity, equity-accounted on a one-quarter lag and so covering January to March 2026, contributed a $51.2 million earnings pickup, up 27% from $40.3 million: $55.5 million from CARS, up 37.7%, less a $4.3 million loss from the Mexico ramp-up. The chain had 752 stores at March 31, against 644 a year earlier, 11 of them in Mexico.

Guidance was reiterated on June 11, unchanged from March 24, and it covers the Canadian segment only. Dollarama gives no revenue or EPS guidance at all. For fiscal 2027 in Canada: 60 to 70 net new stores, comparable sales growth of 3.0% to 4.0%, gross margin of 45.0% to 45.5%, SG&A of 14.1% to 14.6% of sales, and capital expenditure of $420 million to $470 million, driven by the Western Canada logistics hub. For Australia there are no numeric ranges, and the company said it “continues to expect a net loss for the Australian segment in fiscal 2027.”

On the international platforms, Mr. Neil Rossy, President and CEO, described “an increasing number of stores now operating under the Dollarama layout and our first Dollarama import products beginning to gradually reach shelves.” At the first quarter, 410 Australian stores included 8 net new and 13 renovated in the quarter, with 28 configured to Dollarama’s layout, all still trading as The Reject Shop until the product mix converts.

Five things to watch on Wednesday

  • 1. Canadian comparable store sales against the 3% to 4% full-year guide. First-quarter comps of 5.6% ran above that range. Whether the company narrows or lifts the range at the halfway mark is an open question, not something to assume either way. This is the single number that will define the quarter.
  • 2. Australia’s first full quarter against a full quarter. Gross margin there was 34.4% in the first quarter against Canada’s 45.0%. The store conversion count stood at 28 of 410. Whether the segment’s net loss narrows is the read on integration pace, within a fiscal year the company has already said will be a loss for that segment.
  • 3. Any change to the reiterated Canadian guidance. Mid-year is when a company either stands behind a range or moves it.
  • 4. The Dollarcity Mexico ramp. Eleven stores at March 31, and the second-quarter pickup covers April to June.
  • 5. How the reaction is framed. At $167.11 the stock is barely off a 52-week low, with seven beats in eight quarters behind it and recent small beats followed by declines.

When and how it reports

Dollarama releases second-quarter fiscal 2027 results at 07:00 ET on Wednesday, September 16, before the market opens, with a conference call at 10:30 ET. That timing matches its recent practice: all eight of the last reports were pre-market releases, so the reaction shows up at Wednesday’s open rather than in an after-hours session.

What it means for holders

Two facts sit side by side, and they do not resolve each other. Dollarama shares fell 5.5% over the five sessions to Friday’s close while the S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.1%, leaving the stock close to its 52-week low. At the same time, the analyst price targets Yahoo compiles average $209, with a median of $215 and a range from $148 to $231. The mean sits about 25% above Friday’s close, which is a wide gap between where the shares trade and where the street data says they should. Price targets are forecasts, and the $148 to $231 spread is the honest measure of how much the forecasters disagree.

One more piece of company arithmetic. Dollarama repurchased 1,962,010 shares in the first quarter for $339.1 million, an average of $172.83 per share, which is above Friday’s $167.11. Net debt stood at $2,550.8 million, and adjusted net debt to trailing EBITDA at 2.14 times, up from 2.07 times at year-end.

Dollarama is not reporting into an indifferent tape for Canadian defensive retail. Empire, the Sobeys parent, reported on September 10 with EPS in line and revenue light, and gave up an early pop. Our write-up of Empire’s first-quarter results has the detail, and it is a useful reference point for how in-line results from this corner of the market have been received this season.

For anyone tracking where Dollarama fits alongside the rest of the market, it is the number four holding on our Canadian stock picks page, which sets out the longer-term case separately from any single quarter.

On Wednesday morning the comparison to make is a specific one: Canadian comps against the 3% to 4% guide, the Australian segment’s margin and loss, and whether the EPS figure in the headline is on the same basis as the $1.26 consensus.

Data as of the September 11, 2026 close.

Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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