The TSX Closed Up 1.5% on the Day Canada Lost 68,000 Jobs. The Banks Did the Afternoon.
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,664.62, up 1.48% on Thursday’s close of 35,145.40, on the day Statistics Canada reported that Canadian employment fell by 68,300 in September against a forecast gain of 9,200 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4%. It was the Composite’s largest one-day gain since September 3 and its highest close since September 25. The S&P 500 rose 0.59% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.64%.
The timing is the story. The afternoon added 25.0 basis points to the index, and financials supplied 20.6 of them. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Materials, 47% of the move at midday, gave back 6.7. Gold led the morning and the banks finished the day.
The Composite is 3.5% below its August 25 record close of 36,957.60 and up 1.22% in October after September fell 2.85%. Reuters quoted Brian Madden of First Avenue Investment Counsel to the effect that the jobs miss tips the balance toward the Bank of Canada holding rates.
Financials carried the second half of the session
Contributions are fund weight times price return, summed, in basis points of the index move, from the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF holdings file as of October 8.
| Sector | Change in contribution, 11:57 a.m. to close |
|---|---|
| Financials | +20.6 bp |
| Info Technology | +8.6 bp |
| Industrials | +3.1 bp |
| Cons Discretionary | +2.4 bp |
| Real Estate | +0.3 bp |
| Utilities | +0.3 bp |
| Health Care | -0.1 bp |
| Consumer Staples | -0.3 bp |
| Communication | -1.2 bp |
| Energy | -2.0 bp |
| Materials | -6.7 bp |
| Index | +25.0 bp |
Change in each sector’s contribution between 11:57 a.m. ET and the close, in basis points.
Financials returned 1.21% on a 33.59% weight for 40.7 bp, against 0.60% and 20.0 bp at midday, and 21 of its 23 names finished higher. XFN, the iShares Canadian financials fund, went +0.74% at 11:55 a.m., +1.07% at 2:00 p.m., +1.31% at 3:00 p.m. and +1.36% at the close: a grind, not a jump.
All six banks rose in a tight band.
| Name | Weight | 11:57 a.m. | Close | Contribution | Afternoon change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Bank | 7.50% | +0.59% | +1.07% | 8.1 bp | +3.6 bp |
| TD | 5.29% | +0.45% | +1.21% | 6.4 bp | +4.0 bp |
| Bank of Montreal | 3.19% | +0.63% | +1.61% | 5.1 bp | +3.1 bp |
| Scotiabank | 3.03% | +0.61% | +1.29% | 3.9 bp | +2.1 bp |
| CIBC | 2.80% | +0.65% | +1.27% | 3.5 bp | +1.7 bp |
| National Bank | 1.50% | +0.61% | +1.36% | 2.0 bp | +1.1 bp |
| Big Six | 23.31% | 29.0 bp | +15.6 bp |
The six are 23.31% of the index and 29.0 bp of the move, 15.6 of it after 11:57 a.m.
Materials did the most, and not on gold alone
Materials was the largest sector contributor, 2.82% on an 18.17% weight for 51.2 bp, 35% of the index move against 47% at midday. The Composite’s 42 gold and silver producers, developers and royalty companies are 13.65% of the index and contributed 42.0 bp, 28.4% of the move and 82% of the Materials total.
That share was 35.8% at midday. Of the 7.4 point fall, about 6.1 points is the index growing underneath the group and about 1.3 points the group slipping: the frozen 42 went from 43.9 bp to 42.0 bp, and 25 of them closed below their 11:57 a.m. mark. XGD, the iShares gold miners fund, was up 3.32% at 2:00 p.m. and closed up 2.95%, so the miners peaked mid-afternoon and faded. Which of them is worth owning is the subject of our ranking of Canadian gold stocks.
Copper rose 2.88%, and the copper names moved with it: Teck Resources B up 5.43%, First Quantum up 3.19%. Of the 216 names we quoted, 165 rose and 50 fell, so the concentration was in the contribution, not the participation.
The thirteen largest contributors on the day
Ranked by contribution, these were the thirteen largest contributors to the index.
| Name | Weight | Return | Contribution | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopify | 5.65% | +4.12% | +23.3 bp | $243.83 |
| Agnico Eagle Mines | 2.65% | +3.20% | +8.5 bp | $269.83 |
| Royal Bank of Canada | 7.50% | +1.07% | +8.1 bp | $273.78 |
| TD | 5.29% | +1.21% | +6.4 bp | $164.19 |
| Barrick Mining | 1.87% | +2.94% | +5.5 bp | $58.53 |
| Bank of Montreal | 3.19% | +1.61% | +5.1 bp | $232.10 |
| Wheaton Precious Metals | 1.74% | +2.92% | +5.1 bp | $197.66 |
| Suncor Energy | 2.36% | +2.13% | +5.0 bp | $103.04 |
| Teck Resources B | 0.89% | +5.43% | +4.8 bp | $97.10 |
| Aritzia | 0.23% | +20.53% | +4.7 bp | $146.91 |
| Canadian Natural Resources | 2.87% | +1.37% | +4.0 bp | $70.80 |
| Scotiabank | 3.03% | +1.29% | +3.9 bp | $126.03 |
| Constellation Software | 1.23% | +3.15% | +3.9 bp | $3,003.78 |
The thirteen largest contributors to the index on October 9, in basis points.
The largest contributor on a day the gold trade led was a software company: Shopify rose 4.12% to $243.83 for 23.3 bp, 7.3 of it after 11:57 a.m., and information technology’s whole 31.8 bp came on a 9.19% weight.
Aritzia closed up 20.53% at $146.91, from 14.69% at midday, after second-quarter results beat on revenue and profit following Thursday’s close, as Reuters reported and our analysis of Aritzia’s second-quarter results sets out. At 0.23% of the index it contributed 4.7 bp against Royal Bank’s 8.1 bp, about 1.7 times the contribution for thirty-three times the weight.
Gold’s move was in the price before the jobs number landed
Gold closed Thursday at $4,157.00 on the December 2026 COMEX contract and reached $4,227.30 at 1:35 a.m. ET. The last five-minute close at or before the 8:30 a.m. release printed $4,208.70, already up 1.24%. It fell to $4,194.40 by 8:50 a.m., below its pre-release level, then climbed back to $4,220.50 by 4:10 p.m., up 1.53%.
December 2026 COMEX gold, five-minute closes.
So 81% of the day’s gain was in place before Statistics Canada published the September Labour Force Survey, which means most of the move that lifted Toronto’s miners was set before any Canadian share changed hands. Oil did much less: NYMEX WTI, November contract, settled its 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. window at $91.90 against $91.45 on Thursday, up 0.49%.
The same sector labels hold different companies in Toronto and New York
Toronto finished 88.2 basis points ahead of the S&P 500 on the printed levels, widening from 73.8 bp at midday.
Sector contributions to each index at the October 9 close, in basis points.
Materials is where the two books separate hardest: 51.2 bp from an 18.17% weight in Toronto against 1.0 bp from 1.60% in New York, where the sector is led by Linde at 0.33% of the index, up 0.42%, then Newmont at 0.18%, up 1.98%, and Freeport-McMoRan at 0.15%, up 3.58%. The two American names that moved with the Canadian miners are 0.33% of that index between them, so New York barely owns the trade Toronto is built out of.
The US dollar finished at 1.4271 Canadian against 1.4240 on Thursday on the Bank of Canada’s daily rate, so the loonie fell 0.22%. In Canadian dollars, unhedged, the S&P 500 returned 0.814% against the Composite’s 1.48%, which narrows Toronto’s lead from 88.2 bp to 66.3 bp on our arithmetic.
For a portfolio, a Composite index fund holds 68.3% of its weight in three sectors, financials 33.5%, materials 18.1% and energy 16.7%, against 60.7% for the S&P 500’s top three, whose largest single sector is information technology at 39.6%.
Telecom was the only real drag, and Nutrien moved with its peers
Communication Services fell 4.36% and took 6.3 bp off the index on a 1.45% weight: BCE down 5.47% to $26.80 for 2.9 bp, Rogers Communications B down 3.70% and Telus down 3.50% for 1.3 bp each, Quebecor B down 3.68% for 0.7 bp.
The largest detractor outside telecom was Nutrien, down 3.21% to $96.33 for 3.0 bp, and the fertiliser complex moved together: Mosaic fell 5.02% and CF Industries 1.80% in New York the same day. Real estate and utilities finished higher but behind the index, up 0.57% and 0.42%.
Next up: September CPI on October 19, the Bank of Canada on October 28
The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, held since October 30, 2025, when it was cut from 2.50%. Government of Canada benchmark yields on the Valet feed lag a day, so the latest are Thursday’s, from before the report: 3.24%, 3.60% and 3.93% at two, five and ten years, against 3.27%, 3.62% and 3.94% on October 1. Essentially unchanged on the week.
The calendar is thin until mid-week: building permits for August on Wednesday October 14, manufacturing sales and wholesale trade on Thursday October 15. The release that counts before the decision is the September Consumer Price Index on Monday October 19, and the Bank announces on Wednesday October 28.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Index levels, sector returns and every contribution figure are as of the October 9, 2026 close. Contribution is each holding’s fund weight times its price return, summed, and is quoted in basis points of the index move. Constituent weights are the published daily holdings of the iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF and the iShares Core S&P 500 Index ETF as of October 8, 2026, with the American weights that fund’s look-through to its underlying holding, renormalised to 100. Both constituent books were quoted inside the same 0.6-minute window, so the two indices are compared at the same moment. Share prices, index levels and the December 2026 COMEX gold contract are from Yahoo Finance trade data. The oil price is the NYMEX WTI November contract settlement window, the volume-weighted price of trades from 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET, from Yahoo Finance trade data. The US dollar rate is the Bank of Canada daily exchange rate. Government of Canada benchmark yields are Bank of Canada Valet data as of October 8, 2026. Employment and unemployment figures are from the Statistics Canada September Labour Force Survey. The gap between the two indices is measured in local currency except where the article states the Canadian-dollar return.
