Ethereum Outpaced Bitcoin in Q3 2026. Only 3 of the Last 8 Q4s Went Its Way
Ethereum returned +71.24% in the third quarter of 2026 against Bitcoin’s +43.01%, a gap of 28.23 percentage points. The quarter closes today, so the September 30, 2026 value in every calculation below is a live bar rather than a completed close.
That is the eighth quarter since 2018 in which Ethereum has beaten Bitcoin by more than 20 points, and seven of the eight have a following quarter on the record. In 4 of those 7, Ethereum out-returned Bitcoin in the quarter that followed. The tilt is there in the count, but the seven do not hold up under their own robustness checks, and the reading that does hold up belongs to Bitcoin.
Q3 in both currencies, and what the exchange rate did not do
On the daily closing series from Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin ran from $58,558.86 USD at the June 30, 2026 close to $83,745.64 USD, and Ethereum from $1,569.58 USD to $2,687.83 USD.
| Asset | Jun 30, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Q3 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC), USD | $58,558.86 USD | $83,745.64 USD | +43.01% |
| Ethereum (ETH), USD | $1,569.58 USD | $2,687.83 USD | +71.24% |
| Bitcoin (BTC), CAD | $83,197.91 CAD | $118,943.39 CAD | +42.96% |
| Ethereum (ETH), CAD | $2,230.00 CAD | $3,820.71 CAD | +71.33% |
The Canadian-dollar returns land within a tenth of a point of the US-dollar returns, so the exchange rate did almost nothing to this quarter for a Canadian holder of either asset. On those CAD closes, $10,000 CAD placed in Ethereum at the June 30, 2026 close was worth $17,133 CAD at the September 30, 2026 price, against $14,296 CAD for the same amount in Bitcoin. These are unhedged returns on the coins themselves, so a Canadian who held a currency-hedged product did not receive these figures.
Ethereum won all three months, and the margin shrank in each one
| Month | Bitcoin | Ethereum | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | +7.27% | +18.52% | +11.25 |
| August 2026 | +25.05% | +32.60% | +7.55 |
| September 2026 (to Sep 30 price) | +6.62% | +8.96% | +2.34 |
Ethereum beat Bitcoin in July, August and September, so the quarter was not one spike month carried by two quiet ones. But the margin narrowed every month, from 11.25 points to 7.55 to 2.34, and by September it had nearly closed.
The ETH/BTC ratio records the same decay. It rose 19.74% over the quarter, from 0.026804 on June 30, 2026 to 0.032095 on September 30, 2026, in monthly steps of +10.50%, +6.04% and +2.20%. The ratio also sits below its highest 2026 reading of 0.035165, set on January 6, 2026.
A fading margin reads two ways and the data does not choose between them. It is what a driver looks like as it runs out of force, and also what a move looks like while it consolidates.
Ethereum out-returning Bitcoin is not the normal state of affairs
The comparison covers the 35 quarters from Q1 2018 through Q3 2026, starting there because Q1 2018 is the first quarter with a prior quarter-end close to measure a return from. Over those 35, Ethereum out-returned Bitcoin in 16, a raw rate of 45.7%. The median quarter returned +6.11% for Ethereum and +1.04% for Bitcoin.
Quarterly price returns for Bitcoin and Ethereum, Q1 2018 to Q3 2026, from quarter-end closing prices. Q3 2026 is measured to the September 30, 2026 price. Source: Yahoo Finance daily data.
Eight of those quarters produced a gap wider than 20 points in Ethereum’s favour, this one included. Here is what the quarter after each of the other seven delivered.
| Quarter | ETH | BTC | Gap | Next quarter: ETH | Next quarter: BTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 Q2 | +14.81% | -8.17% | +22.98 | -48.84% | +3.46% |
| 2020 Q2 | +69.41% | +41.92% | +27.49 | +59.04% | +18.02% |
| 2020 Q3 | +59.04% | +18.02% | +41.02 | +104.98% | +168.92% |
| 2021 Q1 | +160.01% | +103.16% | +56.85 | +18.57% | -40.53% |
| 2021 Q2 | +18.57% | -40.53% | +59.10 | +31.97% | +24.97% |
| 2022 Q3 | +24.42% | -1.78% | +26.20 | -9.88% | -14.84% |
| 2025 Q3 | +66.74% | +6.46% | +60.28 | -28.44% | -23.28% |
| 2026 Q3 | +71.24% | +43.01% | +28.23 | not yet | not yet |
The seven precedents do not survive their own robustness checks
The question this quarter raises is relative, not directional: whether Ethereum keeps gaining on Bitcoin, which is what the last two columns above measure. It did in 4 of the 7, 57.1%, against 42.9% in the quarters outside the set, so the count sits about 14 points above that baseline. The median of the seven per-event gaps was +4.96 points in Ethereum’s favour, and compounding the relative outcome quarter by quarter across all seven leaves Ethereum 5.55% ahead of Bitcoin. Three measures, all leaning the same modest way.
The arithmetic mean of the seven point gaps leans the other way, and the set moves under the simplest test available. Leave 2021 Q2 out and that mean falls to -11.40 points. Leave 2020 Q4 out and it rises to +9.10. A set of seven whose answer depends on which single quarter is removed is not measuring a property of the pair, and that instability is the finding here rather than the tilt.
Seven observations cannot settle it, and the cut point moves the answer
Four of the seven precedents are two back-to-back pairs inside one bull cycle, 2020 Q2 and 2020 Q3, then 2021 Q1 and 2021 Q2, and in each pair the second event is the first event’s outcome. A 4-of-7 hit rate is in any case consistent with a true rate anywhere from roughly 18% to 90%.
The 20-point threshold is arbitrary as well.
| Gap threshold | Events | Ethereum closed higher next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Above 10 points | 9 | 5 of 9 (55.6%) |
| Above 15 points | 8 | 4 of 8 (50.0%) |
| Above 20 points | 7 | 4 of 7 (57.1%) |
| Above 25 points | 6 | 4 of 6 (66.7%) |
Read down that column and the rate goes 55.6, 50.0, 57.1, 66.7. It wanders rather than rises. The medians move further, from +4.34% at the 15-point cut to +25.27% at 25, and the +18.57% at the 20-point cut is the fourth of seven sorted values and is also 2021 Q2’s own return, an event in the table above. Raising a gap threshold always drops the smallest gaps, and in this record each five-point step happens to drop exactly one. The first to go is 2020 Q1 at 13.57 points, followed by Ethereum at +69.41% against Bitcoin’s +41.92%, and losing that winner is why the rate falls from 55.6% to 50.0%. The next two are 2021 Q4 at 16.94 points, followed by Ethereum at -10.89%, and 2018 Q2 at 22.98 points, followed by -48.84%, and losing those two is why the figures then improve as the bar rises.
Three of the seven precedents are also Q3 events whose following quarter was a Q4, which is this quarter’s setup: 2020 Q3, followed by a gap of -63.94 points, then 2022 Q3 at +4.96 and 2025 Q3 at -5.16. That is 1 of 3, median -5.16 points, and the -63.94 is the same Q4 2020 that anchors the table below. The momentum record and the fourth-quarter record are partly the same quarters counted twice.
The eight fourth quarters on record lean toward Bitcoin, and eight is not enough either
This is the part of the record that speaks to the quarter starting tomorrow.
| Q4 | Gap, ETH minus BTC, in points |
|---|---|
| 2018 | +0.79 |
| 2019 | -14.68 |
| 2020 | -63.94 |
| 2021 | +16.94 |
| 2022 | +4.96 |
| 2023 | -20.20 |
| 2024 | -19.51 |
| 2025 | -5.16 |
Ethereum out-returned Bitcoin in 3 of the 8 fourth quarters since 2018, 37.5%, with a median gap of -9.92 points and a mean of -12.60. Compounding the relative outcome across those eight leaves Ethereum 44.41% behind Bitcoin. Q4 2020 is the extreme case: Ethereum returned +104.98% and still finished 63.94 points behind.
The same discipline applies here. A rate of 3 in 8 is consistent with a true rate of roughly 8% to 76%, an interval that contains both the 45.7% raw baseline and the 57.1% conditional rate, so the Q4 record is not distinguishable from either. Three of the eight gaps also sit within 5.2 points of zero, at +0.79, +4.96 and -5.16, so a small move in any of them turns the count into 2 of 8 or 4 of 8. The lean is toward Bitcoin. The confidence is not there.
Bitcoin’s own fourth-quarter reputation is a different question
Bitcoin’s Q4 seasonality gets quoted a lot, and it is a claim about Bitcoin alone rather than about the pair. Across all 12 fourth quarters since 2014 Bitcoin’s median Q4 return is +26.64%, positive in 7 of 12, with the four largest being 2017 at +226.28%, 2020 at +168.92%, 2015 at +82.40% and 2016 at +58.06%. Narrow to the 8 fourth quarters from 2018 onward and the median flips to -3.76%, positive in 4 of 8, with Ethereum at a median of +6.40% and also positive in 4 of 8. The seasonal case rests heavily on 2015 through 2017.
Our own September call sits eight sessions into an open window
On September 23, 2026 we published “Ethereum Stopped Gaining on Bitcoin in August. Seven of the Last Eight Stalls Ended Lower”. It noted that the ETH/BTC ratio had been flat for five weeks and that seven of the eight comparable stalls since 2017 resolved lower 30 days later, a sample that starts earlier than this one because it reads the ratio series directly. The caveat above applies there too: eight dependent observations cannot carry a forecast. The monthly decay in this quarter is the same flattening that piece was measuring, seen from the other end.
Measured on the same ratio series, the ratio closed at 0.031943 on September 22, 2026 and sits at 0.032095 on September 30, 2026, a change of +0.48%. Eight sessions into a thirty-day window, the ratio is fractionally higher. That is neither resolution nor refutation. The window runs to roughly October 22, 2026.
The tax question a +71% quarter creates
Rotating between the two is not a neutral rebalance in Canada, in either direction. Swapping Bitcoin into Ethereum, or Ethereum back into Bitcoin on the reading above, is a disposition of the coin being sold at fair market value, and the gain on it is measured and reported even though no cash changed hands and the proceeds never touched a bank account.
That makes the cost base the first thing to establish, and for identical units bought at different prices it means averaging across the whole holding rather than picking a purchase. Our guide to adjusted cost base walks through that calculation. What the gain then costs depends on how the activity is characterised, and per the CRA’s guidance on reporting crypto-asset income, a disposition on account of capital includes half the gain in income while one on account of business income reports the full profit. Our capital gains tax calculator for Canada covers the capital side.
What the quarter settles and what it leaves open
Ethereum beat Bitcoin in Q3 2026 and in every month of it. The seven prior quarters with a gap this wide lean its way on the count, the median and the compounded outcome, and the mean of their gaps turns positive on two of the seven removals, so a set whose answer depends on which single quarter is dropped does not support a forecast. The steadier reading runs the other way: across the eight fourth quarters since 2018, Ethereum out-returned Bitcoin 3 times and finished 44.41% behind it compounded. Eight observations is still eight.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices and all return history come from Yahoo Finance daily closing bars for BTC-USD, ETH-USD, BTC-CAD and ETH-CAD, pulled on September 30, 2026. Quarterly, monthly, ratio and threshold figures are our arithmetic on those closes. Because the quarter ends today, the September 30, 2026 value in every return window is a live bar rather than a completed close. The comparison covers the 35 quarters from the first quarter of 2018, the first quarter with a full prior quarter of Ethereum price data, through the third quarter of 2026.
