Why the TSX Jumped 2.3%: US Midterms Sank Oil, Lifted Gold
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Wednesday at 36,341.40, up 809.10 points or 2.28%, its biggest one-day gain since March 31, 2026. The cause sat in Washington: Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, CNBC reported, and by the close the US dollar had fallen, gold was back above US$4,000 and crude had dropped another 8.3%. The S&P 500 added 1.58% to 7,688.62 and the NASDAQ 1.44% to 25,736.51, with CNBC quoting Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Slimmon saying markets “like gridlock.”
The arithmetic is the Canadian story. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, and materials and financials together added 225.2 of the 227.4 basis points the model accounts for, 99% of it, against a printed move of +2.28%. Energy, 16.91% of the index, subtracted 70.4 on its own and the market still finished up more than two percent. Even after a session this size the composite sits 1.67% below its August 25 closing high of 36,957.60.
Crude’s second leg down cost the index 70 basis points
NYMEX WTI’s December contract came in at US$88.12, down 8.32% from Tuesday’s US$96.12 and down 15.33% in three sessions from Friday October 30’s US$104.07. (NYMEX WTI, December contract, settlement window 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET, our calculation from Yahoo Finance trade data.)
The reporting tied that to the election. Vice President JD Vance said in a post on X on Wednesday that “The reason we lost is the war,” blaming the Iran war for the Republican losses, according to NBC News. Via CNBC and Quartz, analyst Andy Lipow said the results suggest Trump may now be more inclined to make a deal.
This is the second leg of one repricing: crude fell 6.6% on Monday November 2 on Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On both of this week’s big down days the Canadian energy complex took about half of the front month’s move, 0.47 on Monday and 0.50 on Wednesday, measuring the composite’s cap-weighted energy block against the contract’s settlement-window move. Canadian Natural Resources dropped 7.70%, Cenovus Energy 7.83% and Suncor Energy 4.35%.
A falling US dollar put gold back above US$4,000
CNBC reported that the ICE US Dollar Index declined and attributed the precious metals rally to the election. Gold’s December futures contract finished at US$4,073.10, up 3.37%, and the Canadian dollar at 0.7161 against the US dollar, up 0.30%.
The five gold names led materials, worth 66.3 of the block’s 117.2 basis points between them: Wheaton Precious Metals rose 11.66%, Agnico Eagle Mines 9.45%, worth 22.2 on its own, Barrick Mining 7.97%, Kinross Gold 7.51% and Franco-Nevada 6.92%. Our Canadian gold stocks page ranks the sector.
Nvidia and Celestica fell against the rest of the tape
CNBC and Quartz reported that investors sold the companies most exposed to greater scrutiny from a left-leaning Congress, and that Asian chip stocks fell on worries about curbs on AI infrastructure buildout. Nvidia closed down 3.17% while Microsoft rose 6.68% and Apple 5.31%, and in Canada Celestica fell 9.15% to $330.24.
Nine of eleven sectors rose
| Sector | Weight % | Sector return % | Contribution, bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Materials | 15.96 | +7.34 | +117.2 |
| Financials | 35.45 | +3.05 | +108.0 |
| Information technology | 8.16 | +3.13 | +25.5 |
| Consumer discretionary | 3.11 | +5.09 | +15.8 |
| Industrials | 10.63 | +1.26 | +13.4 |
| Consumer staples | 3.19 | +2.44 | +7.8 |
| Communication services | 1.51 | +3.06 | +4.6 |
| Utilities | 3.42 | +1.19 | +4.1 |
| Real estate | 1.22 | +1.36 | +1.7 |
| Health care | 0.34 | -0.94 | -0.3 |
| Energy | 16.91 | -4.16 | -70.4 |
Cap-weighted sector blocks of the S&P/TSX Composite, computed from the iShares XIC holdings file as of November 3, 2026, covering 99.9% of index weight.
Financials, the largest block at 35.45% of the index, added 108.0 basis points, 47% of the move. The six banks were worth 62.5 of that between them, in a band from CIBC’s +2.38% to Bank of Montreal’s +2.93%. A spread of 55 hundredths of a point across six names is block repricing, not stock picking. On the US tape, CNBC reported that economically sensitive shares led and that the election removed what one strategist called “political uncertainty risk”. Fairfax Financial gained 10.68% and Intact Financial 7.34% in their first full session since Tuesday’s post-close results.
Information technology netted +25.5 basis points, the session’s split in miniature: Shopify, the index’s biggest positive contributor at 29.9 basis points, rose 6.25% to $212.71 after Tuesday’s Q3 report opened it down 9.8%, while Celestica subtracted 8.3.
Where Canadian rates stand going into December 9
The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.50%, after a hike from 2.25% decided October 28. One-month CORRA futures price 12.13 basis points into the December 9 decision, 49% of a 25 basis point hike, which we broke down in what the market has priced into the December 9 decision. The 10-year Government of Canada bond yielded 3.77% on Tuesday, the most recent reading in the Bank of Canada’s selected bond yields.
What comes next
Thursday November 5 brings results from Canadian Natural Resources, TC Energy, Wheaton Precious Metals, Pembina Pipeline, BCE, Bombardier and Gildan Activewear. Canadian Natural reports the day after crude fell 8.32% and Wheaton the day after gold cleared US$4,000, and both results cover the quarter that ended September 30, before any of this week’s repricing. Statistics Canada publishes October’s Labour Force Survey at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday November 6.
Levels are Wednesday’s closes, November 4, 2026.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Index levels, sector proxies, the day’s biggest movers, gold, the Canadian dollar and the US single-name closes are live market data read after the close on November 4, 2026. The cap-weighted sector blocks and every per-name contribution are computed from the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF holdings file as of November 3, 2026, the fund’s own daily disclosure, covering 99.9% of index weight; the model reproduces the printed index move at +2.274 percentage points against a printed +2.28%. Contributions are percentage points of the index’s return expressed in basis points, never index level points. The article uses the cap-weighted composite blocks throughout and never the sector ETF proxies, so there is one sector basis on the page. Every WTI price is the NYMEX December 2026 contract settlement-window price, the volume-weighted price of trades from 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET, which is the exchange’s own settlement method, rebuilt from one-minute Yahoo Finance trade data and recorded daily; every crude comparison is that same contract, so none crosses a contract roll, and the continuous front-month series is not used anywhere. The crude pass-through figures of 0.47 on November 2 and 0.50 on November 4 are our own arithmetic, computed the same way on both days, the cap-weighted energy block against that contract’s settlement-window move, and the article says which measurement it is. The Bank of Canada policy rate and its October 28 increase come from the Bank of Canada’s own rate series; the 12.13 basis points and the 49% priced into the December 9 decision are derived from one-month CORRA futures settlements on the Montreal Exchange calibrated against spot CORRA; the 3.77% 10-year Government of Canada benchmark yield is the Bank of Canada’s own selected bond yield for Tuesday November 3, because the Bank publishes that series one business day in arrears, which the article states. That November 4 was the biggest one-day gain since March 31, 2026, and that the composite sits 1.67% below its August 25, 2026 closing high of 36,957.60, are our own arithmetic on three years of daily closes of the index. The cause of the session is attributed reporting, not our own observation: the Democratic majorities in both chambers, the fall in the ICE US Dollar Index, the precious metals rally, the selling of companies exposed to greater scrutiny from a left-leaning Congress, Asian chip stocks falling on AI infrastructure curb worries, the Andrew Slimmon gridlock quotation and the reading that economically sensitive shares led are CNBC’s, carried also by Quartz; the Andy Lipow comment is via CNBC and Quartz; the JD Vance statement on X is NBC News’s reporting and is linked to it. Aggregators are credited in plain text and never linked. Monday November 2’s 6.6% crude fall on Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks about the Strait of Hormuz, and Shopify’s Q3 report opening the stock down 9.8% on Tuesday November 3, are our own previously published figures. Fairfax and Intact reported after Tuesday’s close, which the article states as timing without claiming it caused their moves. Earnings dates and the Labour Force Survey release time come from our own market calendar, built from primary sources.
