Why Canadian Natural (CNQ) Stock Is Up 4.8%: $94 Oil Put Energy Past the Big Six Banks
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) stock closed Tuesday October 13 at $74.19, up 4.79%, worth 13.7 basis points of the S&P/TSX Composite’s 0.90% gain and the largest single lift in energy. Energy produced 44.0 basis points in all, more than the Big Six banks managed between them, because Toronto was shut Thanksgiving Monday and a weekend of oil news landed in one session.
Toronto rose, New York did not move
The Composite closed at 35,983.98, up 0.90% from Friday October 9’s 35,664.60, Thanksgiving Monday being one of the closures in the exchange’s 2026 trading calendar. New York traded Monday and went nowhere: the S&P 500 finished at 7,805.45, down 0.02%, the NASDAQ Composite at 27,204.38, down 0.15%. Toronto’s gain is not a catch-up to a move made while it was closed. The Composite is up 2.12% this month after September’s 2.85% fall, its only monthly decline since April.
Three oil settlements, with a weekend in between
NYMEX WTI’s November contract settled at $94.09 on Tuesday, $93.70 on Monday and $91.90 on Friday October 9. Tuesday added 0.42%; from Friday the barrel is up 2.38%.
On Saturday October 10 a Houthi ballistic missile strike hit King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. CNN reported at least 13 people killed and more than 300 wounded, the deadliest attack on Saudi Arabia in more than a decade, with a further attack on Monday October 12 killing one person and injuring 11, per Al Jazeera. Pulling the other way, Russia partially lifted its diesel export restrictions on October 10 after a US agreement, and CNBC reported oil was little changed on Tuesday as traders weighed that against the Saudi-Houthi conflict.
The producers ran well ahead of the barrel: Imperial Oil up 4.55%, Cenovus 4.25% for 4.9 basis points and Suncor 3.67% for 8.7. The sector as a whole returned 2.65%, barely ahead of the barrel: the outperformance sat in the biggest names, not the average. The pipelines moved less and contributed more, Enbridge up 1.56% for 4.5 basis points and TC Energy 2.33% for 4.1, against Imperial’s 2.4. The sector’s only four decliners were uranium names: Cameco -2.42%, NexGen -3.52%, Energy Fuels -7.30% and Denison -4.05%. Which of them is worth owning at a $94 barrel is what our ranking of Canadian energy stocks weighs.
The last 90 minutes rotated the drivers and left the level alone
| Sector | Weight % | Return | Contribution, bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | 33.41 | +1.35% | +45.0 |
| Energy | 16.61 | +2.65% | +44.0 |
| Information Technology | 9.33 | +2.18% | +20.4 |
| Industrials | 9.91 | +0.53% | +5.3 |
| Communication | 1.36 | +3.06% | +4.2 |
| Consumer Staples | 2.98 | +1.27% | +3.8 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 2.97 | +0.43% | +1.3 |
| Real Estate | 1.19 | -0.08% | -0.1 |
| Health Care | 0.29 | -0.85% | -0.2 |
| Utilities | 3.27 | -0.22% | -0.7 |
| Materials | 18.30 | -1.83% | -33.5 |
Each contribution is a holding’s weight in the October 12 iShares XIC holdings file times its price return, summed by sector, reconciling to 0.894 percentage points against the printed 0.896% (a basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point).
The index printed +0.912% at the 2:31 p.m. read and closed at +0.896%, barely moving, but what drove it changed underneath: energy from 36.4 basis points to 44.0, financials 45.2 to 45.0, materials -30.0 to -33.5 and information technology 23.7 to 20.4, as Shopify faded from +3.74% to +2.96%, still the index’s largest single contributor at 17.1 basis points.
Financials returned 1.35% from 33.41% of the index for 45.0 basis points, a shade more than energy’s 44.0 from twice energy’s weight. The Big Six banks are only 39.2 of it, which is how oil beat the banks: Toronto-Dominion led at +2.22% for 11.8 basis points, Royal Bank +1.27% for 9.5, and all six closed higher. Brookfield Class A was the largest drag at -1.51% for -3.4, and the banks are the group we rank on Canadian bank stocks.
The metal fell a little and the producers fell more
Gold’s COMEX December contract closed at $4,186.00, down 0.11% on the day and 0.72% below Friday October 9’s $4,216.30, with silver’s December contract at $59.46 down 2.60% from Friday. Materials returned -1.83% and took 33.5 basis points out, against 1.229 percentage points from the other ten sectors between them.
Agnico Eagle was the largest single detractor, down 2.15% to $264.04 for -5.8 basis points, against Nutrien up 2.94% for 2.7.
SSR Mining’s 7.09% drop took out 1.4 basis points, Agnico’s 2.15% took out 5.8, because a contribution is weight times return. Which producers are worth holding through a softer metal is the question behind our ranking of Canadian gold stocks.
What comes next
September’s Consumer Price Index lands Monday October 19, nine days before the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, with the policy rate at 2.25%, unchanged since October 30, 2025, after a cut from 2.50%. The Canadian dollar closed at 0.7034 against the US dollar, up 0.46%.
Into that decision the curve has already eased: on Friday October 9 the 2-year yielded 3.18%, the 5-year 3.54% and the 10-year 3.86%, against 3.24%, 3.60% and 3.93% on Thursday October 8, the most recent readings in the Bank of Canada’s Canadian benchmark bond yields series. Real estate and utilities, the rate-sensitive corners, contributed -0.1 and -0.7 basis points.
Data and disclosure
Data as of the close on Tuesday October 13, 2026, measured against Friday October 9, the previous TSX session. Oil is the NYMEX WTI November contract settlement window (volume-weighted trades, 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET, our calculation from Yahoo Finance trade data). Gold and silver are COMEX December contracts, and the bond yields are Bank of Canada Valet series dated Friday October 9.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Index levels, sector returns and every contribution figure are the October 13, 2026 close, measured against the Friday October 9 close because the TSX was shut on Thanksgiving Monday October 12. Contribution is each holding’s iShares XIC fund weight (file as of October 12, 2026) times its price return, summed by sector, quoted in basis points of the index move and reconciling to 0.894 percentage points against a printed 0.896%. Oil is the NYMEX WTI November contract at the 2:28 to 2:30 p.m. ET settlement window, our calculation from Yahoo Finance trade data. Gold and silver are COMEX December contract closes. Canadian bond yields are Bank of Canada Valet series dated Friday October 9, the most recent readings available. Prices from Yahoo Finance.
