Canada’s September Exports Set a Record on Oil and Gold Prices
Canada’s merchandise exports set a record in September, Statistics Canada reported at 8:30 a.m. ET today, edging up 0.2% to $78.6 billion while imports fell 0.3% to $73.2 billion and the trade surplus with the world widened from $5.0 billion in August to $5.4 billion. All figures are balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted, in Canadian dollars, data as of November 4, 2026.
The unrounded $78,551.1 million is the highest of the 465 months in table 12-10-0163, which starts in January 1988. It is a record in current dollars, a weaker claim than it sounds across 38 years of a nominal series, and the price and volume indexes show why.
The record is made of prices, not shipments
The export price index hit 162.3 in September, up 4.3% in the month and 19.1% over the year, the highest of the 117 months in table 12-10-0168. Both trade indexes in that table are set to 2017 = 100 and begin in January 2017. The volume index went the other way, to 105.5, up 2.2% year over year and down hard in the month: “In real (or volume) terms, total exports were down 4.0%,” the release says. Canada shipped meaningfully less in September and was paid more for it. The same split runs through imports, where the price index hit a series-high 140.6 while the volume index fell 2.5% to 108.6.
One qualification belongs with that. The price index is Paasche current weighted, so part of what lands in “price” is the export book tilting toward gold and crude rather than the same goods costing more. The volume index is Laspeyres fixed weighted.
Source: Statistics Canada table 12-10-0168, total of all merchandise, exports, balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted. Price index Paasche current weighted, volume index Laspeyres fixed weighted.
Averaged over the first nine months of 2026, the export volume index sits at 105.90, 2.7% above its 2019 average of 103.07. The price index over the same stretch went from 104.96 to 153.09, up 45.9%. Volumes are 1.1% above their 2023 average and 1.0% above their 2024 average, four years of going essentially nowhere while the invoice value climbed. September’s own drop, -3.9% off the published index values, was a big month, not an unprecedented one: the 17th largest of 116 monthly changes, against a median absolute move of 1.6%.
Most of the wider surplus came from imports falling
The surplus widened $398.8 million, from $4,951.3 million in August to $5,350.1 million in September on the unrounded values behind the agency’s rounded billions. Exports supplied $142.4 million of that; imports supplied the rest by shrinking, down $256.4 million, 64.3% of the widening.
What Canada stopped buying was cars. Imports of motor vehicles and parts fell $1,145.4 million, from $12,635.0 million to $11,489.6 million, a 9.1% drop and a second straight decline after a 9.3% fall in August. Passenger cars and light trucks led it at -13.2%, and Statistics Canada names the cause: “Supply issues caused unplanned production stoppages in the United States in September, resulting in fewer imports of passenger cars and light trucks.”
Imports excluding motor vehicles and parts rose $889.0 million, up 1.5% on the agency’s figure, against the $142.4 million exports added. Without the auto line the September surplus narrows instead of widening. The improvement in Canada’s trade balance is, to a first approximation, assembly lines in the United States that were not running.
Energy products and metal and non-metallic mineral products now carry 44.7% of exports
Three of the 11 export product sections rose, and the release notes “declines were observed in 8 of the 11 product sections.” The two biggest gains in dollars were energy products, up 8.2% to $20,636.6 million, and metal and non-metallic mineral products, up 8.6% to $14,459.8 million. The biggest percentage gain came from a third section, metal ores and non-metallic minerals, up 9.8%. That section is ore and concentrate, outside the 44.7% measure; counting it in gives 48.8%.
Those two sections came to 44.7% of all Canadian merchandise exports in September, against 41.3% in August, 37.5% in September 2025 and 34.1% in September 2024. Over all 465 months of table 12-10-0163, that is the second highest share on record, behind 44.9% in March 2026, and eight of the ten highest readings are months of 2026. The twelve-month average to September is 41.6%, against 35.7% for the twelve months before it.
A share can be dismissed as a denominator effect, so here are the rates. Year over year, those two sections went from $24,202.5 million to $35,096.4 million, up 45.0%, while everything else Canada exports went from $40,368.2 million to $43,454.7 million, up 7.6%. Total exports rose 21.7%. One part of the book is growing roughly six times faster than the other.
The finding to carry out of the release is not a one-month commodity spike but an export book re-weighted toward resources all year. A reader holding a broad TSX index fund carries a version of the same tilt, which is why we track Canadian energy stocks.
Source: Statistics Canada table 12-10-0163, exports, balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted, monthly from January 1988 to September 2026.
Within energy, crude oil and bitumen rose 10.2%, which the agency puts down to “higher prices,” and natural gas jumped 32.1%. Refined petroleum energy products fell 13.9% after a record August and partially offset the section’s increase. Energy products still booked a second consecutive monthly gain, and even so, energy exports fell 5.0% across the third quarter.
| Export product section | September, $M | Change on August |
|---|---|---|
| Metal ores and non-metallic minerals | 3,248.1 | +9.8% |
| Metal and non-metallic mineral products | 14,459.8 | +8.6% |
| Energy products | 20,636.6 | +8.2% |
| Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products | 3,729.3 | -2.6% |
| Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts | 2,878.8 | -4.2% |
| Farm, fishing and intermediate food products | 5,483.6 | -4.6% |
| Motor vehicles and parts | 7,332.0 | -4.9% |
| Consumer goods | 7,673.9 | -7.1% |
| Industrial machinery, equipment and parts | 4,418.3 | -9.0% |
| Forestry products and building and packaging materials | 3,424.0 | -9.8% |
| Electronic and electrical equipment and parts | 3,237.0 | -13.9% |
| Special transactions trade and other balance-of-payments adjustments | 2,029.8 | -3.1% |
| Total of all merchandise | 78,551.1 | +0.2% |
Source: Statistics Canada table 12-10-0163, exports, balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted, September 2026. The eleven product sections plus special transactions trade and other balance-of-payments adjustments.
The gold gain is bullion changing owner
Exports of unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals and their alloys rose 16.8% to $9,235.3 million, 11.8% of all merchandise exports for the month. The category’s high is higher: $10,871.4 million in March 2026.
Statistics Canada is specific about the increase: “Higher purchases of Canadian-held gold by US residents were behind the sharp increase in exports of unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals and their alloys in September.” September’s gain is metal already in Canada changing owner and crossing the border. It lands in the export column and in the surplus all the same, but it is not what moves a producer’s results, which is ounces sold at a realized price. That mechanism is not the one behind earnings at Canadian gold stocks.
If that re-weighting were mostly vault transfers it would say little about the real economy, so the check is worth running. Unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals were 9.56% of exports in September 2025 and 11.76% in September 2026, a shift of 2.19 percentage points against the 7.20 points the energy and metal products share moved over the same year, 37.48% to 44.68%. Gold accounts for about 30% of the re-weighting, a third of it rather than the whole.
Data centre processors set an import record
The largest import story runs the other way. Imports of electronic and electrical equipment and parts rose 10.3% to $10,404.7 million, a record for the 465-month series, on computers and computer peripherals, up 29.4% to $3,249.2 million, “mainly because of higher imports of processing units (of the type used in data centres) from the United States.” That category is up 53.4% in the first nine months of 2026 against the same period of 2025. Canada is paying for the AI build-out, and the trade accounts are where the bill shows up.
What fell on the export side, and the reason the agency gives
Eight of the 11 export sections fell, at the rates in the table above, and Statistics Canada offers a mechanical explanation for the five it singles out: “Several products included within these categories were targeted by new tariffs in the United States and posted significant increases in August.” Exports excluding energy and metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.6% in the month, but the annual rates above have them up 7.6% on the year, and the last month below September’s level was April 2026. One soft month off an elevated August is not a trend break.
Trade tilted back toward the United States
Exports to the US rose 0.7%, “mainly because of higher exports of crude oil and unwrought gold,” and imports from the US rose 0.4%, in part on those processing units, widening the surplus with the United States from $12.1 billion in August to $12.3 billion, short of the $14.1 billion of January 2025, the high of the 357 months that series runs from January 1997. Exports to countries other than the United States fell 1.1% on lower gold to the United Kingdom and lower coal and wheat to Japan, and their share of Canadian exports slipped from 30.1% to 29.8%.
A revision to a number we published
One correction to carry forward. August imports, first reported at $73.7 billion, are now $73.5 billion; August exports, first reported at $77.9 billion, are now $78.4 billion. That moves August’s world surplus to the $5.0 billion this release cites and August export growth to 3.2%. When we covered the August trade release on October 6, we reported a $4.2 billion surplus and 2.5% export growth, the figures the agency published that day. A revision larger than the monthly change beside it is a standing reason to read any single month of trade data as a draft.
At 44.7%, the energy and metals share sits 0.2 points under its March 2026 record, so another month like September puts the series at a high; a volume index that turns back up while prices hold would say the concentration was a spike. The full release is Statistics Canada’s Daily on Canadian international merchandise trade for September 2026. October data are scheduled for December 8.
Disclaimer: The content on bestcanadianstocks.ca is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Trade figures are from Statistics Canada’s release of November 4, 2026, balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted, in Canadian dollars.
